Why Carlos Correa is the right player at the right time for the SF Giants

Thirteen years is a long time. The San Francisco Giants locked up superstar Carlos Correa to a 13-year, $350 million deal late Tuesday--what should Giants fans expect throughout the course of the contract? For starters, Correa is just 28 years old. He should reasonably be expected to have 3-4 more prime years. According to the ZiPS projection system, Correa will produce 5+ WAR in each of the next three seasons; 4+ WAR in each of the next five seasons; and 3+ WAR in each of the next seven seasons. Thairo Estrada led all SF Giants position players with 2.7 fWAR in 2022, which is what Correa is projected to produce in year eight of this deal. Even in year 10, Correa is projected to produce like an average everyday player.

What about Carlos Correa's platoon splits? What about his power translating to Oracle Park? While Correa is certainly better against lefties than he is against righties, he is absolutely not a platoon player (which should be obvious; you're not giving $350 million to a platoon player). He has a career 140 wRC+ vs. LHP and a 125 wRC+ vs. RHP. Both are excellent. Combine that with elite defense at a premium position, and it's what makes Correa the Giants' latest superstar. Correa hits the ball all over the field. He will certainly lose some home runs to right field at Oracle Park, but he should gain some to center field, where he hits the ball a lot. According to Statcast, Correa would've lost only four home runs over the last three seasons combined if all of his balls in play occurred at Oracle Park. Not a huge deal.

"Mad Dog" Chris Russo of MLB Network, however, hates the signing. With all due respect, he has no idea what he's talking about. In one breath Russo praises Correa as a superstar. In the next, he says this will go down as the worst contract in Giants franchise history. How does that make any sense? Russo seems to be relying too much on old ways of evaluating offense: with batting average, home runs, and RBI. He's also seemingly unaware that the league average batting average has plummeted, and Correa's career AVG of .279 is way, way above the MLB average. Also, as teams certainly know by now, metrics like wRC+ and even OPS+ are better at evaluating hitters. Carlos Correa himself knows this and is fluent in the analytics of today's game. Just another reason he will be such a great resource for the San Francisco Giants for many, many years to come.

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The best daily San Francisco Giants podcast. Whether the Giants are winning championships or retooling for another title run, Locked On Giants host Ben Kaspick—a lifelong Giants fan and former contributor for RotoGraphs and Beyond the Box Score—breaks down every game, rumor, and transaction in a way that's data-driven and rational but also simple, passionate, and accessible to all.

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