Which SF Giants targets are likely to underperform or overperform?

It happens every year. Free agents are hyped in the offseason, only to fail to live up to their new deals. Last year, several players didn't live up to expectations. Kris Bryant was hurt all season in Colorado. Nick Castellanos produced like Tommy La Stella after getting $100 million from the Phillies. Which San Francsico Giants targets are likely to underperform? And which SF Giants targets are likely to overperform?

Among the top free agents available, there are certainly cases to make that each one could underperform. Aaron Judge will likely never have a better season than he just had. Xander Bogaerts has somewhat concerning expected numbers (based on quality of contact). Dansby Swanson may get a huge deal, but has never been that great of a hitter. Brandon Nimmo hasn't been able to stay on the field enough and may end up underperforming based on health alone. In terms of who may overperform, Willson Contreras is a solid bet as he seems to be lining up as a solid bargain. But will the Giants be interested in signing a catcher?

Do the San Francisco Giants have the ability to sign a big-time bat (like Aaron Judge) in addition to a top-of-the-rotation arm (like Carlos Rodón or Jacob deGrom)? Their payroll, including arbitration estimates, will be around $100 million after Rodón opts out and if they take the buyout on Evan Longoria. That would allow them to add Judge at $35 million a year and Rodón at $25 million a year and still come in around $160 million, where they've been the last few seasons. Indeed, the Giants are in a great position to make impact additions if they so desire. And hopefully the San Francisco Giants are willing and able to push well beyond that modest $160 million figure in 2023 and beyond.

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The best daily San Francisco Giants podcast. Whether the Giants are winning championships or retooling for another title run, Locked On Giants host Ben Kaspick—a lifelong Giants fan and former contributor for RotoGraphs and Beyond the Box Score—breaks down every game, rumor, and transaction in a way that's data-driven and rational but also simple, passionate, and accessible to all.

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