SF Giants' offense has been the unluckiest in baseball—by far—for six-plus weeks

We don't need to look at numbers to tell us that the San Francisco Giants' offense has been dreadful for weeks. But in this case, a look at the numbers is warranted. The Giants have a .272 wOBA since June 25, the worst mark in MLB by a lot. However, their expected wOBA, based on strikeouts, walks, and quality of contact, is much, much higher. Their xwOBA is .306, which is not great by any stretch. But it is, however, 34 points higher than their actual wOBA. And that 34-point gap is double the next closest team. In other words, the Giants have been the unluckiest offense in MLB for six-plus weeks by two times.

Several veteran SF Giants players have fallen victim to bad luck. Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford, LaMonte Wade Jr., Michael Conforto, Austin Slater, and Mike Yastrzemski all have well below average results since June 25, but above average expected numbers. If we think back on some of the balls they've hit that have been caught, it's not hard to recall the frequent moments of poor fortune.

Given all this, the Giants are lucky to have stayed afloat with such poor results offensively. Despite being by far the majors' worst offense over this span, the SF Giants have gone 18-20, which is far from disastrous. Their odds of winning the division have fallen drastically, but they're still in strong position to make the playoffs as a wild card team.

Finally, one under-the-radar factor that could draw Shohei Ohtani to the San Francisco Giants is discussed.

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The best daily San Francisco Giants podcast. Whether the Giants are winning championships or retooling for another title run, Locked On Giants host Ben Kaspick—a lifelong Giants fan and former contributor for RotoGraphs and Beyond the Box Score—breaks down every game, rumor, and transaction in a way that's data-driven and rational but also simple, passionate, and accessible to all.

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