SF Giants' arbitration estimates can help us predict their offseason spending

The San Francisco Giants' spending is always a hot topic around these parts every offseason. That conversation may be louder than ever before this winter, with the SF Giants coming off a very disappointing 81-81 record after they won 107 games in 2021. The fanbase is restless, the payroll has been stagnant, and there are stars available for the Giants to sign, if only they were willing to do so.

Understanding where the Giants stand from a payroll perspective is important if we wish to predict what they will be able to spend this offseason. The Giants have relatively few commitments to 2023 salaries. They owe $73 million to eight players, not including the $22.5M Carlos Rodón will undoubtedly opt out of. That also includes the $5M buyout on the Giants' $13M club option over Evan Longoria. The SF Giants' arbitration estimates, per MLB Trade Rumors, are for $33.3M going to 13 players. The Giants will have the power to negotiate these salaries, and they are not committed to paying any of them if they'd prefer to non-tender any arbitration-eligible player.

Add it all up, and the San Francisco Giants are looking at roughly $106 million going to 21 players. This does not include any pre-arbitration estimates for the Giants. And again, they can non-tender any arbitration-eligible player and won't be obligated to pay a dime. But this is a good rough starting point. And what it means for the Giants, in terms of offseason spending, is that they'd have about $56M to spend on 2023 salaries just to get back to their extremely modest range of about $162M, where they've been each of the last few years. So you could essentially sign a couple of $30M per year players and still come in with a very modest payroll. Hopefully the Giants increase payroll this year, but they're starting from a very flexible position and a big offseason for the Giants is more than possible.

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