KW Feedcast - 22 February 2022

The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson. As usual he brings you updates on the wheat, protein and fibre markets.

A new picture is forming in the wheat markets although this is linked to the outcome of the Russia: Ukraine situation. Here in the UK we have seen enough rain to dispel any drought worry for the new crop and likewise this is the same across the channel in Europe and through to the black sea region. French wheat has now been rated 95% good to excellent which is up 10-12% year on year. However French exports are struggling and Russian exports are also beginning to slow down. This could mean going in to an excellent crop year with 5-10mT of additional wheat. While this is speculative at the moment it could well have a big impact on the supply/demand situation. On the flip side the wheat market is being underpinned by the maize market. This is at risk in South America with Argentinian forecast lowered last week by the USDA and Brazil suffering from rain that is delaying the planting of their second crop. All eyes on the US and what the farmers will plant soya or maize.

In the protein markets we have seen little change. South America remains the main topic of conversation with a potential shortfall of 20mT. As yet this is not reflected in the USDA announcements, but even if it is, will it be believed. This week we are expecting an update on the US planting which will remove attention from South America, there is a suggestion that soya will be better to plant but it is a big if, that that will be the case.

Rape seed continues to follow the soya market, however the rapemeal price has stabilised to around 60% of the soya price meaning there are deals to be done. It is still too early in the season to see what the Australian crop will do to affect the supply and demand dynamics. Distillers are remaining very competitive with Vivergo and Ensus seeing strong demand resulting in price increases.

Finally on a fibre front, prices remain high with soya hulls remaining tight due to distribution issues and sugar beet pricing reflecting the high gas prices.

As always if you need any advice please contact your local KW account manager.