KW FeedCast - 10 May 2023

The latest episode of FeedCast is brought to you by Chris Davidson, our raw material expert. As usual he provides an outlook on the protein, mid protein and cereal markets. 

Starting with proteins and kicking off with Soya. There is some good news in the fact that we have been seeing Soya break in the last few weeks as well as seeing positive currency movements from a UK point of view. The US plantings are getting off to a good start, meaning focus has moved away from an Argentinian crop which is very disappointing. The US is around 35% complete on their plantings against 10/11% this time last year. There remains a big question mark in regards to Chinese demand of all commodities particularly from US sourcing. Moving forward the weather is looking positive, so no major concerns at this time regarding Soya. 

On the mid proteins side of things, we are seeing tightness of availability of Rapemeal particularly over the bank holiday periods and this is continuing to be the case in the south with demand really strong. Whilst there are imports being brought into the east coast, ultimately there is a lot less Rapemeal being crushed in this country, so it’s something to be aware of as we move into the summer months. July is very much a shutdown month for a lot of the rape crushers and we need to keep an eye on availability moving into June. 

We are continuing to see relatively good availability on Distillers with Vivergo producing well. Ensus is currently supplying with no real issues and the Ensus product has switched back to predominantly wheat which is a positive for farmers looking to use it. Between Rapemeal, Vivergo and Ensus there are plenty of options for the mid protein requirement. 

Looking further forward, we are seeing incredibly strong demand for NovaPro as an alternative to Soya. It still represents great value leading to availability starting to look tight for the first half of the summer. For Novapro users it would be beneficial to look at your requirements for May, June and July to avoid any disappointment.

The cereals markets are proving very difficult to judge. Funds have taken a hefty short position in the wheat market leaving it very exposed given the fact the Ukrainian grain corridor has still not been renewed and we are 5-8 days away from it closing. There has been additional comments today from Russia, suggesting that they are proposing a grain corridor with China. They have started the process of examining whether they can do something to improve the flow of grain from Russia into China. Russian wheat continues to drag us lower, however the next 5-8 days are crucial regarding the grain corridor. With the fact that it still looks more likely to close than remain open is something to be very wary of. 

Looking across Europe, it is very dry in Ukraine which is a big concern. Whilst at this stage European and UK crop is looking in really good shape, we are looking at heavy rain falls from the last 4-6 weeks so there is concern there with the lack of sun and warmth. 

As always get in touch with your sales representative or contact us in the office if you have any queries.

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