JSEDirect with Simon Brown

SARB wants a lower inflation target; how, why & implications?

kk Sasol Secunda Reprieve Recap of Sasol's recent developments. Minister's agreement to Sasol's appeal regarding emissions at Secunda. Stock bounce and support level analysis. Target prices discussion and outlook for Sasol. PGM Miners' Performance Analysis of platinum group metal (PGM) miners' performance. Notable increases in stock prices. Consideration of factors affecting the industry, including production cuts and demand for catalytic converters. Exploration of whether t...

The looming commodity cliff (#581)

Commodity Market Analysis Oil prices are on the rise, currently trading around $89 per barrel, indicating both demand and supply factors at play. Factors affecting oil prices include supply disruptions from Russia and Saudi Arabia's production cuts through OPEC+. Concerns about inflation are reflected in the rising price of gold, which is currently trading at all-time highs above $2300 per ounce. Despite uncertainty, inflation is not expected to decrease soon, especially with increasing...

Telcos are horrid investments (#580)

  Old Mutual Results: Surprisingly strong results from Old Mutual. Despite stagnant GDP growth and population decline, Old Mutual shows strong growth, indicating market share acquisition. Expansion into banking sector questioned due to market saturation. Stock analysis: Trading around 1184, showing potential support at 1150 and resistance at 1240-1280. Considered cheap with PE ratio around 7.7 and dividend yield over 7%. Market consensus predicts an average price target of 14.81...

Abenomics worked, Fed not so much (#579)

Market Updates: Recent news on Markus Jooste's fine and tragic passing prompts reflection on justice and mental health awareness. Telkom's sale of its towers business for R6.75 billion highlights strategic shifts and potential opportunities in the telecom sector. Ongoing rise in oil prices raises concerns about inflationary pressures and global economic impacts. Market Analysis and Insights: Gold's Surge: Gold prices hit new all-time highs above $2200, reflecting investor concerns a...

US CPI hasn't come down in 9 months! (#578)

Retire well, we're chatting with retirees about what they've learnt and any tricks they can pass on. US Inflation Trends: US inflation has remained stagnant at 3.2% since June of the previous year, defying expectations. Despite initial projections, inflation has not reached the anticipated 4% mark, staying just above 3%. Discussion on potential implications for the economy and monetary policy, including the possibility of a mid-year rate cut.   Local Property Market Concerns: Rev...

Shoprite could buy Pick n Pay, but should you buy Shoprite? (#577)

  Shoprite* Results and Market Comparison Discusses the recent Shoprite results, emphasising excellent performance against a high base. Highlights Shoprite's significant CapEx spending, customer savings, and market share gains. Compares market cap of Pick n Pay and Shoprite, pointing out the latter's cash reserves. Reflects on the historical revenue comparison between Shoprite and Pick n Pay over the past 20 years. Shoprite's Competitive Position and Stock Analysis Questions whe...

Nikkei highs, Pick n Pay lows, Bitcoin 1million (#576)

Nikkei 225 reached a new all-time high after 35 years Historical context: peaked in December 1989, 82% drawdown by March 2009. Factors contributing to the 80s crash: Yen protection, low rates, speculative bubble. Current challenges: aging population, economic complexities, recent inflation. Investment options: Sygnia JP (SYGJP) - JSE-traded, and Investec's structured product. Warren Buffett's Annual Letter Warren Buffett's annual letter to shareholders released. AGM scheduled for ...

Budget 2024 panel with AJM Tax (#575)

Budget 2024 panel. For the last many years AJM Tax has done a post budget panel which includes Simon Brown and this year was no different. Hosted in Cape Town the panel was; Karyn Maughan, senior legal journalist at News24 Dr Albertus Marias, Director AJM Tax Azhar Varachhia, Managing director Alpha plus Capital Simon Brown, Just one Lap and MonewebNOW Below is the AJM Tax one pager of budget highlights. 

Inflation, it ain't over. So what about rates? (#574)

Pick n Pay* Chart Analysis Resistance zone around 26, potential to touch 26.70 Higher highs, higher lows, horizontal resistance Target: 30 bucks to fill the gap Comments on Pick n Pay's potential under Sean Summers No need for a rights issue, potential market spook if it happens Simon's position: Started building, considering more Current status: Down 1.7%, trading at 25.30 Pick n Pay close 13Feb24 (daily) Transaction Capital and WeBuyCars Transaction Capital planning to l...

Has Canal+ won already? The answer is yes. (#573)

Disney results: Last week's big story was about tech, starting with Disney, a stock recommended here back in September at ±$80. Key financials: Linear networks revenue up 9%, Direct-to-consumer up 12%, Parks up 16% Direct-to-consumer still incurred a loss of $400 million Consumer products, content sales licensing, and ESPN performance discussed Overall, not a knockout result but not terrible; I remain a satisfied shareholder Big move in streaming sports! ⚾️🏀🏈 Disney, Warner Bros...

Simon's stocks for this years Cristal challenge

Breaking News: Canal+ Offer for MultiChoice: Canal+, French TV business, offers 105 rand per share for MultiChoice minorities. Synergies between the two businesses. Legal considerations regarding foreign media ownership. MultiChoice closed at 75 rand; market likely to respond positively. Market Updates: Hyprop reports positive festive trading for its tenants. Transaction Capital plans to list WeBuyCars in March; potential value unlock. Evergrande declared bankrupt with over 300 ...

China in trouble, is it over? Should we be worried? (#571)

dd Introduction: JSE Direct Episode 571 for January 25, hosted by Simon Brown. Simon introduces the idea of transitioning the podcast to a live format using Riverside, allowing viewers to see charts and interact during recordings. Market Updates: Richemont*: Stock surged 10% on better-than-expected trading update. Identified as an opportunity last year when it pulled back to R2,500. Trading at R2,653 at the time of the recording. AVI: AVI delivered a strong update, but stru...

Do elections matter for markets? (#570)

In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown discusses various market topics, including the bleak outlook of the Hang Seng Index due to Chinese GDP results. Positive news for Grindrod with the Maputo Port Development Company's impressive performance. The rise in uranium prices driven by increasing demand for nuclear power plants, he found two US listed ETFs benefiing from this trend. [caption id="attachment_40966" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Spot uranium price[/caption] The approv...

Predictions 2024; Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan & Simon Brown (#569)

Now for the eleventh year in a row, we kick off the new year with a prediction show. Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown put their heads on the block with three wild and woolly predictions for the markets for 2024 followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead. Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year’s predictions and you’ll find the 2023 predictions show here.  

JSE winners and losers for 2023 (#568)

Can Transaction Capital and Purple Group reverse their losses? (#567)

Position your portfolio for 2024. Top local ETFs for 2023. Simon Shares Transaction Capital (JSE code:TCP) results swung into a massive loss, no surprise. SA Taxi loss making but overall H2 was better then H1 in all three divisions. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) results also swung into a loss. But as a discretionary consumer business, why is everybody so surprised? Average client has 1.45 products. This seems low, very low. Philippines not yet regulated, but they not giving up....

Charlie Mungers life lesson - always be learning (#566)

Share buybacks and stock compensation, the bad and the ugly (#565)

Share buybacks and stock compensation, the bad and the ugly Share buybacks are good right? The company uses their free cash to buyback shares which reduces the number of remaining shares such that each share has a higher claim over future profits which adds to their value. Further they're tax efficient in that paying dividends results in dividend tax. BUT; Firstly, in cyclical stocks you need to be buying back at lows, not highs and the companies usually have no free cash at lows, so ...

Why telcos are a horrid investment (#564

The problem with telcos I have long said that telcos such as MTN (JSE code: MTN) and Vodacom (JSE code: VOD) is that they are essentially utilities and should be priced as such. But actually that statement is wrong. Sure voice (who still calls using voice?) and data are utilities like water and electricity. BUT the telcos have a problem, capex. Yes we're using more and more data but prices keep coming down, I recently bought an effective 80 GB for little over R400. And all that whi...

Updating minister Gordhan's portfolio (#563)

Updating minister Gordhan's portfolio Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan has declared his holdings, we reviewed his portfolio last time in April and there are some interesting changes, he is fairly active in buying and selling. Most notable is the total value is up almost R2million? Simon Shares Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) have introduce a platform fee. Certain behaviours will see the fee waived and I speak to Charles Savage on my MoneywebNOW show Thursday morning. Renergen...

Living small, an update

Living small, an update Back in 2017 Simon and his wife down scaled into a small (relative) apartment and also got rid of one of their cars again. As they now move again Simon updates in their experience of living small. Simon Shares Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) results. Revenue up and HEPS lower. TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) loses their CEO and posts a decent trading update. Jamie Dimon said central banks’ forecasts have been “100% dead wrong”. Sasol (JSE code: SOL) trading update...

Renergen, now what? (#561)

hh Renergen* (JSE code: REN), now what? Late September the price started breaking down and end September a Tweeter started posting about them. I'm not going to defend every point raised, that's the job of the company and after an initial poor response, Monday saw a more detailed SENS. Paid research. Ultimately all research is paid for. Sometimes it is paid for by the company and here the issue is disclosure. I think the bigger issue is a complete lack of disclosure in our industr...

Old traders, bold traders, but no old and bold traders (#560)

There are bold traders. here are old traders. There are no bold and old traders.Bold traders What is a bold trader and why do they die out? Wild swings for the fence No position size management Stop loss for losers Enter outside of system and process Simon Shares Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) trading update, Spur (JSE code: SUR) really has taken the mantel of best QSR/restaurant business on the JSE. Very strong US jobs and upward revisions from previous month. But wage inflation onl...

Pick n Pay cheap on almost every metric, but is it a buy?

US 10-year highest yield since 2007 is bad news for almost everybody (#558)

US 10-year yields highest since 2007 Bad news all round (unless you buying). Almost 40% of US government debt expires in the next four years and will be re-issued at markedly higher rates, 9x higher in some cases. Money flowing into US bonds for yield. This sees less money entering the stock market Sees a stronger US$ (check DXY strength, all currncies weaker against US$) Hits valuations lower as higher rates makes cash worth less in the future, but so far the market has ignored this...

Disney offering serious value (#557)

Richemont gets interesting, Shoprite gets "extraordinary" (#556)

Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results "2023 was extraordinary". Chart by Koyfin 15% discount for first 2 years Richemont (JSE code: CFR) getting interesting, let's see if support holds. [caption id="attachment_40005" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Richemont weekly ~ 07Sep23[/caption]Nampak (JSE code: NPK) nil paid letters are trading, code NPKN. Remember either sell them or take up the rights. Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) trading statement, HEPS +20% for the first six months e...

Results-a-rama, we review them all (almost) (#555)

Simon Shares Bidcorp - excellent AvdTech* - really good, stock at all-time highs Stadio - good student growth Motus - poor HEPS, good dividend Woolies* - not bad, but wow only got R1.1billion for David Jones Sasol - impairments galore Adcock Ingram - capacity utilisation is weak Aspen - good second half KAP - tough out there Super Group - strong numbers * I hold ungeared positions.

Spur and Calgro M3 both breaking higher (#554)

dd Spur and Calgro M3, two stocks I have been watching and both have seen their prices break higher. Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) builds lower income housing and after a few troube years os back on track. Latest results were for year ending February 2023. PE ±2.5% Cash on hand ±R172million, market cap is ±R440million NAV 951c (including unused land valued at ±30% of NAV) while share price 365c Spur (JSE code: SUR) sells fast casual food and the pandemc hurt. Latest results have som...

China in trouble? (#553)

  China in trouble as economic data keeps on disappointing? Chinese data keeps disappointing, every since the -7.5% export data from April. Expected was a strong rebound after they lifted zero-covid restrictions. But not happening. Just this week; Among 70 Chinese cities, 49 saw a fall in new home prices month-on-month in July from 38 cities the previous month. China suspends youth unemployment data after record high. Over the last decade they’ve halved the number of indicators th...

Aspen back? Making deals and looking cheap? (#552)

  Aspen looking cheap? Aspen (JSE code: APN) announces a acquisition in Latin America for US$290m on a price/sales of ±3x and PE of ±5x. This is a classic Stephen Saad sort of deal. Strong cash generation to pay down the debt. After having gone quiet when the balance sheet case under serious pressure (with debt of ±R50billion) Aspen is back? Chart looking good for a break higher. Forward PE of ±12x is below 1 standard deviation over last twenty years and looking cheap. Charts by Ko...

Understanding central banker speak (#551)

  Central bakers have very few tools to achieve their mandates around inflation (and in some cases also protecting a currency and aiding GDP growth). Interest rates have a blunt lagged effect and their only other tool is what they say and we need to understand this central banker speak. Last week it was the South African Reserve Bank MPC rate announcement that left prime unchanged for the first time since November 2021. The vote was close and the governor spent a lot of time saying they ...

Inflation back in range, now for rate cuts (#550)

As expected Local CPI for June came in at 5.4%, lowest in twenty months and well within the 3%-6% target range from the South African Reserve Bank. Yes base effect as June last year was the first +7% inflation print of this cycle.  When do we start talking rate cuts? Truthfully not yet, a pause would be nice eve as the gov always targets 4.5% not the range. Simon Shares MPC is Thursday, I expect no raise and can we start talking about rate cuts yet? USDZAR currency forecasts from Gold...

The Four Horsemen of Big Tech (hello 1999) (#549)

Simon Shares US inflation for June was 3.0%, expected was 3.1% and previous 4.0%. Next FOMC meeting is 25/26 July. I think they still do a 0.25% rate hike, but then maybe pause for good, well until cuts start next year. Nasdaq100 special rebalance to cut the 'Magnificent Seven' to "address over concentration in the index by redistributing the weights." Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla are the magnificent seven. They account for 55% of the index. Effective c...

Two-pot system is confirmed, here all the details (#548)

Two-pot system is confirmed, here all the details Starts 1 March 2024 All future reg28 and pension contributions will be split into two pots One third savings Two thirds investments You can withdraw the savings component before retirement Tax still payable Existing funds will convert automatically into the new two-pot system Of existing funds R25,000 will be transferred into the savings pot Concerns about everybody taking out their R25,000 and crashing the market are over d...

A watch list of SA Inc stocks (#547)

SA Inc watch list. Building a list of stocks that are cheap, very cheap, and could give good return n the next year or three. Criteria; Must be profitable, so positive PE ratio Must be cheap, so PE below 8x Small as in market cap under R8billion No REITs Using Koyfin I get 46 stocks including REITs and detail them in the podcast. I'll create a watchlist on Google docs and share that link in time. What about just the mid cap ETF from FNB? FNBMID. Sixty stocks but problem is the top...

Bye bye inflation? Rate cuts next? (#546)

Local CPI 6.3% for May (lowest since April 2022) from 6.8% in April and vs expected 6.5%. A very good number and we should see June below 6% as June last year was the first +7% in this cycle at 7.4%. Simple base effect should put some serious pressure on inflation over the next few months. So is inflation largely over locally? Probably. Can we start talking about when the MPC starts cutting rates? The next MPC rate announcement is July, the day after we get June inflation and we'll see t...

Disappearing dividends (#545)

dd Disappearing dividends Just this week Spar (JSE code: SPP), MultiChoice (JSE code: MCG) and Telkom (JSE code:TKG) have all cut dividend to zero. We had big dividend payer Coronation (JSE code: CML) drop theirs to provision for the SARS fine and historically good dividend payer Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) reduce theirs. This shows the pain that companies are experiencing, not all, but certainly some, It perhaps also shows quality, for example Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) increased thei...

Buy SA Inc (#544)

Simon Shares SEC sues Binance and CEO for U.S. securities violations. SEC Charges Coinbase for Operating as an Unregistered Securities Exchange, Broker, and Clearing Agency. First quarter GDP was 0.4% and we avoid a technical recession. Pepkor (JSE code: PPH) price slide. Tigerbrands (JSE code: TBS) horror results. Oceana (JSE code: OCE) results knock it out the park. Sun City visit. Excellent resort, but very quiet which many commentators suggest is because it's a random weekend...

There goes the Rand (#543)

Simon Shares MPC raised rates by 0.5% makes prime 11.75%, highest since 2009. The aim I suspect was to protect the rand, and that totally did not work as the currency hit its worst ever levels. Where will the rand go next? Does it ever strengthen again? RSA Retail Bond rates reset this morning and I expect the 5-year fixed to potentially increase by a full 15% and the CPI linked also reset and I also expect an increase there.. Will have update on the website. Tsogo Sun Gaming (JSE code:...

Purple rights issues, everything you need to know and do (#542)

Simon Shares Bond ETFs yielding ±10%. That's chunky and they can go in a tax-free account. New INCOME ETF from CoreShares. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) rights issue. If you held the share yesterday at close on Tuesday 23 May you will see PPEN in your account. 10.20567 for every 100 Purple shares you held. Each PPEN (letter of allocation or LOC as some are calling it) entitles you to buy 1 new Purple share at 81c. You can take up that right and buy, or You can sell them in the mar...

Data confirms South African consumers are losing purchasing power (#541)

Simon Shares I have been talking about a cracking (broken?) consumer for a few months now. Two recent surveys show exactly this data. BankservAfrica’s five-year review of Take-home Pay and Private Pensions in South Africa for February 2018 – February 2023 "The average nominal salary Take-home Pay Index, increased from R12,573 to R15,438, +22.8%." But CPI was 26.6% and take home pay had kept track until last year. Debt Busters Debt Index | Q1 2023 survey "Nominal incomes were 2% hig...

The end of the US$, agan? (#540)

Simon Shares Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP) results where pretty much as expected. Management have essentially thrown the kitchen sink at everything. H2 will be tough but likely a little better. FY24 a clean slate. But market does not agree with me. Nutun doing good WeBuyCars under pressure, no surprise, consumer cracking SA Taxi real ugly, but as detailed in trading update US unemployment 3.4%. April CPI 4.9%. The end of the US$ Bretton Woods essentially created teh US$ as ...

The PGM miner margin squeeze (#539)

Simon Shares Implats (JSE code: IMP) trading update saw production down and costs up. That's squeezing margins and going to hurt. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) nice boost in production, but iron ore prices are falling. Will hurt Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) as well. Combined Motor Holdings* (JSE code: CMH) results sees them on a PE of under 5x and DY of ±13%. But return will be mostly from dividends, ±650c over next thirteen months = ±22%. Renergen* (JSE code: REN) results. Smaller loss, but no pr...

Purple Group results, I'm holding (#538)

Simon Shares Coronation* (JSE code: CML) trading update, aside from the massive SARS judgement (and hence no dividend), not bad. But not yet time for buying as sellers persist. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) results saw a loss for the six months ending February 2022. But lots of extra one off expenses (expected for a growth business) and a tough market and they still have excellent growth potential. I continue to hold. * I hold ungeared positions. Simon Brown  

Reviewing Gordhan's portfolio & time to sell Capitec? (#537)

Simon Shares Local CPI 7.1% for March up from 7.0% in February. Expected was 6.9%. Core inflation 5.2% vs expectations of 5.1%. Rates higher for longer. Reviewing Minister Pravin Gordhan's portfolio. Too many stocks, why not more ETFs? Platinum at all-time highs in rands. This as it trades at more than 50% off the all-time US$ highs from 2008. Still long all my index trades. Time to sell Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) as results show them as ex-growth? Return in Equity (RoE) 26% Cost...

Current open trading positions, long everything (#536)

Simon Shares US inflation for March at 5.0%, better then expected and initial response form markets was to jump higher. Big wait now is for first week of May and the next FOMC rate decision. Current open trading positions, long everything My 7/21 trading system has me long all the indices I trade as below; Nasdaq 22Mar23 @ 12,740 S&P500 21Mar23 @ 4,056 Euro Stoxx 50 03Apr23 @ 4,317 ASX200 05Apr23 @ 7,240 FTSE100 11Apr23 @ 7,793  

Strong Q1 returns (#535)

Simon Shares Combined Motor Holdings* (JSE code: CMH) strong trading update puts the stock on a PE of under 5x and a dividend yield of ±15%. A great well run company, but what will get the price moving higher or do we just live off dividends? * I hold ungeared positions. Strong first quarter returns Q1 2023 return[/caption] Top40 stocks, top and bottom performers pic.twitter.com/zwZlJkRpwX — Simon Brown (@SimonPB) April 3, 2023    

The problem with dividends - tax (#534)

Simon Shares MPC announcement Thursday. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) git the 120c bottom of the range, but has suddenly rallied. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH), we now know what as the "Board agrees on a radical draft plan to enter into an insolvency process with creditors". The problem with dividends - they not tax efficient. They are great But tax. Dividend Withholding Tax (DWT) is 20%. The maximum Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is 18% after the annual R40k exclusion. And DWT you pay al...

Transaction Capital, is there value? (#533)

Simon Shares Federal Reserve FOMC raises 0.25% and the market drops as Fed says almost at the top. Local CPI comes in slightly higher at 7.0%. MPC meets next week, hold on rates or another +0.25%? Credit Suisse 'sold' to UBS. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) votes against the debt deal, now what? Bankruptcy surely? Transaction Capital (JSE codeL TCP) bounces, where's the value?