Industry Relations Episode 59: Forecasting a Hot Housing Market in 2021 – with Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist at Zillow

Industry Relations

English - February 22, 2021 23:41 - 43 minutes - 50.1 MB - ★★★★★ - 28 ratings
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Previous Episode: Industry Relations Episode 58: What NAR’s Revised Code of Ethics Means for REALTORS – with Laura Farley

Next Episode: Industry Relations Episode 60: Unpacking the Panic Around Zillow’s Acquisition of ShowingTime – with Nick Bailey, Chief Customer Officer at RE/MAX

Zillow’s Economic Research Team just released its forecast for 2021, and they expect it to be the best year for home sales since 2005. In fact, Zillow’s number crunchers believe that a whopping 6.8M existing homes will close next year, marking the biggest one-year gain in sales (nearly 22%!) since the early 1980’s.

Jeff Tucker is a Senior Economist at Zillow Research where he studies the causes and consequences of changing supply in the housing market. On this episode of Industry Relations, Jeff joins Rob and Greg to discuss the inputs his team used to make its predictions for 2021 and describe how current growth differs from what we saw at the height of the bubble in 2005.

Jeff offers insight around the demographics of who’s buying and selling homes right now, sharing his take on why the low millennial marriage rate may not impact the housing market as much as we think and how feasible it is for young, working-class Americans to afford homeownership. Listen in to understand how COVID facilitated the single-family home inventory crash and get an economist’s perspective on why the housing market will stay hot through 2021.

What’s Discussed: 

The inputs Jeff’s team used to predict that 6.8M existing homes will close in 2021

How current growth differs from what we saw at the height of the bubble in 2005

The decrease in the share of income spent on mortgages since 2018

Why the iBuyer’s mission to create a frictionless experience is so important moving forward

Jeff’s insight around the demographics of who’s buying and selling homes

The distinction between family and household formation

Why the low millennial marriage rate may or may not impact the housing market

How COVID facilitated a single-family home inventory crash

Why Jeff sees appreciation slowing down by the end of 2021

Jeff’s take on the feasibility of homeownership for working-class millennials

How the skyrocketing US money supply might impact the real estate market