In Moscow's Shadows
175 episodes - English - Latest episode: 1 day ago -Russia, behind the headlines as well as in the shadows. This podcast is the audio counterpart to Mark Galeotti's blog of the same name, a place where "one of the most informed and provocative voices on modern Russia", can talk about Russia historical and (more often) contemporary, discuss new books and research, and sometimes talk to other Russia-watchers.
If you'd like to keep the podcast coming and generally support my work, or want to ask questions or suggest topics for me to cover, do please contribute to my Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/InMoscowsShadows
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
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Episodes
In Moscow's Shadows 155: Putin's Shadow War on the West
July 13, 2024 17:00 - 56 minutes - 39.1 MBThe claim that Russian intelligence planned to murder a German industrialist highlights the Kremlin's escalating campaign of mayhem and disruption in Europe, from arson to disruptive cyberattacks. Why is Putin -- who was initially rather more cautious -- now raising the stakes and, more to the point, what can we do about it? The Meduza report from Buryatia I mentioned is here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive cr...
In Moscow's Shadows 154: What (if anything) does the Labour Party victory in the UK mean for Ukraine and Russia?
July 06, 2024 08:00 - 48 minutes - 33.7 MBWill the change in government in London and Sir Keir Starmer's elevation to prime minister mean anything for Kyiv and Moscow? Are there lessons to be learned about how Moscow handles foreign elections, whether in terms of subversive operations or managing its own expectations? A few early thoughts, even though the honest answer is that not much is likely to change. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercise...
In Moscow's Shadows 153: Geopolitics, Nepotism, Terror and Assassination... (all the nice things)
June 30, 2024 08:00 - 1 hour - 42.6 MBA compilation of current issues, which will nonetheless somehow connect: The Trump-Biden debate: what does the Kremlin really want? Nepotism: why are the princelings returning to politics? Terrorism in Dagestan: what does it portend? Covert Ops: ought the West be in the assassination business? The Spectator piece I mentioned is here. Tickets for the 9 July book event in London I mention are available at https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/russias-future-with-mark-galeotti-anna-arutunyan-hat...
In Moscow's Shadows 152: Prigozhin's Mutiny, One Year On
June 23, 2024 07:00 - 1 hour - 46.2 MBExactly one year after Prigozhin's Wagner mercenary army began its mutiny, what has changed, and what can be learned? And why are so many Russians so keen to believe Prigozhin himself is not dead? In the second half of this bumper episode, the full first chapter of the audiobook of my and Anna Arutunyan's new book Downfall. Prigozhin, Putin, and the new fight for the future of Russia (Ebury/Penguin, 2024). Out now in the UK and Europe, out in September in the US. The podcast's corporate pa...
In Moscow's Shadows 151: From Switzerland to SMERSH
June 16, 2024 11:00 - 45 minutes - 31.2 MBUkraine's Ten Point Peace Plan, which received only limited endorsement at the recent Swiss Peace Summit, is essentially a demand for Russia's surrender. Putin's recent statement of conditions for negotiations is likewise a call for Kyiv to capitulate. Is this a complete impasse? Yes and no -- they are best considered as 'pre-peace positioning' in preparation for any future talks, whenever they happen, and a survey arranged by the Carnegie Endowment gives some interesting insights as to how ...
In Moscow's Shadows 150: An Unfunny Thing Happened On The Way To The Forum
June 09, 2024 08:00 - 56 minutes - 38.9 MBPutin's lengthy Q&A at the St Petersburg International Forum (SPIEF), in conversation with hawkish academic Sergei Karaganov, provided a useful opportunity to gauge his mood and his vision for both war and peace. From whether Russia is European (yes) to whether he needs to go nuclear in Ukraine (no), one can certainly question many of his claims and assumptions, but he sounded more confident than he has in a while. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides sof...
In Moscow's Shadows 149: Dyumin, Deterrence and a Deputy
June 02, 2024 08:00 - 54 minutes - 37.5 MBAn episode of various bits and pieces: what (if anything) can we read into Alexei Dyumin's appointment to be secretary of the State Council, what (if anything) is the Western thinking about escalation and deterrence over Ukraine and what (if anything) is interesting about Denis Manturov, the new First Deputy PM? The previous podcast in which I talk about Dyumin and Tula is #48, here. The article I wrote with Ekaterina Schulmann comparing the State and Security Councils is here. The podcas...
In Moscow's Shadows 148: 'Purging' the Military; the politics of anti-corruption in a corrupt system
May 26, 2024 09:00 - 44 minutes - 30.9 MBWhat is behind the current spate of corruption-related arrests within the Russian military? Fears of a coup, an FSB takeover, punishing the generals for a badly-fought war? I'd say it is what it seems, an attempt to tackle waste in a time of war. That doesn't mean this kleptocracy is changing its spots, though: even within corrupt systems, anti-corruption campaigns can be mobilised for a range of purposes. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for...
In Moscow's Shadows 147: The Reshuffle, Or Change To Preserve Things As They Are
May 19, 2024 08:00 - 56 minutes - 38.6 MBThere has been an unexpectedly interesting and extensive reshuffle of the Russian government, but what does it mean? I suggest it is about creating an enduring militarised, mobilised state, preserving Putin's rule not least through elevating a new generation of leaders and preparing to play generations against each other. Details of the 28 May Cambridge event I mentioned (including the livestream link) are here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides softw...
In Moscow's Shadows 146: Britain and Russia, Eternal Frenemies
May 12, 2024 10:00 - 45 minutes - 31.6 MBReading Barbara Emerson's excellent The First Cold War: Anglo-Russian Relations in the 19th Century got me thinking more about the nature of British-Russian relations, which really date back to the 16th century, why we each loom so large in the other's geopolitical imagination, and why Russia is torn between extreme Anglophilia and Anglophobia. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, c...
In Moscow's Shadows 145: How Corruption Works Under Putin
May 05, 2024 07:00 - 53 minutes - 37.1 MBThe case of Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov, long known as 'king of the kickback,' but only now arrested and charged, provides a good opportunity to consider how corruption is so central to Putin's system, not simply as a reward mechanism to pay off the loyal, but also as a control mechanism and even a social one. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil af...
In Moscow's Shadows 144: Of Talks and Thugs
April 21, 2024 08:00 - 1 hour - 46.2 MBIn the first part, I talk about some of the issues raised by a recent article in Foreign Affairs by Sam Charap and Sergei Radchenko for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia whenever they actually happen. In the second I dig into the rise and challenges of Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard. The Foreign Affairs article I mention is here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfa...
In Moscow's Shadows 143: Of MICE and Man
April 14, 2024 08:00 - 58 minutes - 40.4 MBWhy are some individuals, parties, even countries still so willing to believe (or at least affect to believe) Putin's nonsense? As a way of trying to explain it, I turn to the intelligence recruitment acronym MICE: Money, Ideology, Compromise and Ego. In the second half, I look at another potential up-and-comer, Yuri Trutnev, deputy PM and presidential representative of the Far East, and wonder if he might have a non-standard political trajectory in mind. The podcast's corporate partner an...
In Moscow's Shadows 142: Heresies and Revolutions
April 07, 2024 09:00 - 53 minutes - 36.7 MBIs Putin's Russia becoming a revolutionary state? A recent article on RT by Dmitry Trenin, once one of the doyens of Russian foreign policy analysis, suggests so, but perhaps doesn't go far enough. I consider Trenin's piece in conjunction with others by Fedor Lukyanov and one Henry Johnston, to wonder whether Putin, in so many ways the arch conservative, is being forced to reinvent himself as a revolutionary under pressure of events since his invasion of Ukraine. PS: I did say it wasn't bey...
In Moscow's Shadows 141: Sex, Drugs and Rock & Roll (kinda)
March 31, 2024 10:00 - 55 minutes - 38.2 MBAfter a sham election and a ghastly terrorist attack (and a pretty ghastly official response), time to talk about something else: sex, drugs and rock & roll. Well, demography, access to pharmaceuticals, and the state's culture war in music, film and beyond - but that's almost the same, isn't it? The Shaman video I mentioned is here, while if you want to see the trailer for Turist, it's here. For a more wholesome watch, the trailer for Cheburashka is here. The podcast's corporate partner ...
In Moscow's Shadows 140: Terror and Totalitarianism
March 24, 2024 10:00 - 52 minutes - 36.4 MBWhat a week it has been. I give my initial thoughts on the awful terrorist attack on the outskirts of Moscow, and then pivot to some further lessons of the sham presidential elections. It's all joy, all the time, here at In Moscow's Shadows... There are further details of Vienna event at the Kreisky Forum on 8 April here, and on the Newcastle University public lecture on 16 May here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immers...
In Moscow's Shadows 140: Terrorism and Totalitarianism
March 24, 2024 10:00 - 52 minutes - 36.4 MBWhat a week it has been. I give my initial thoughts on the awful terrorist attack on the outskirts of Moscow, and then pivot to some further lessons of the sham presidential elections. It's all joy, all the time, here at In Moscow's Shadows... There are further details of Vienna event at the Kreisky Forum on 8 April here, and on the Newcastle University public lecture on 16 May here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immers...
In Moscow's Shadows 139: Why Even Sham Elections Can Matter
March 17, 2024 10:00 - 55 minutes - 37.9 MBRussia's presidential elections are coming to a close, and while Putin's landslide victory is a foregone conclusion in light of the manipulation of the process (I write about that here), that doesn't mean these elections don't matter. I discuss the things I'll be looking for, ranging from how the votes are allocated, through the potential for a cabinet reshuffle, to how this fits into wider political processes, from the cultivation of a new loyalist elite to the risk of a further mobilisatio...
In Moscow's Shadows 138: Gangster Geopolitics
March 09, 2024 08:00 - 54 minutes - 37.3 MBAre we failing properly to consider the danger as the Kremlin turns to Russian-based organised crime groups abroad to make up for the expulsion of so many of its spies abroad and the constraints of the sanctions regime? I think so -- and here I explain why. The ECFR Crimintern report I mention is here, and Rebellion as Racket, for the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime is here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innova...
In Moscow's Shadows 137: They Pretend To Lead Us, We Pretend To Believe
March 02, 2024 15:00 - 50 minutes - 34.6 MBAn episode, I admit, on the nerdier end of the spectrum, as I dig into Putin's latest State of the Union, both for the detail and also for three big take-aways: that this was a stealth stump speech, that it left unanswered how (or if) the ambitious 6-year plan would be funded, and that it marks a new stage in Putin's Sovietisation. My earlier video on the speech is here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis ex...
In Moscow's Shadows 136: Avenging Navalny
February 25, 2024 09:00 - 41 minutes - 28.8 MBAvenging may not be quite the right word, but what can the West do to punish the Kremlin for Navalny's death and furthering his cause in ways worthy of him? I set out some practical proposals. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patr...
In Moscow's Shadows 135: Navalny in the late Soviet Union
February 18, 2024 09:00 - 1 hour - 42.1 MBWell, not really, but how Navalny's awful death helps illustrate how late Putinism in its 'banana republic' phase comes to resemble the later Soviet era -- and what this may mean for its future. My video on Navalny is here and Sunday Times article is here. The Moskovsky Komsomolets article I cite is here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and si...
In Moscow's Shadows 134: Kaliningrad still at the Crossroads
February 11, 2024 10:00 - 54 minutes - 37.6 MBIs the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad a dangerous Russian bastion threatening the West, a point of vulnerability for Moscow, or a potential point of reconnection with Europe? How about a mix of all three -- and also an example of how even figures from a new 'Putin generation' politician can be technocrats rather than zealots. In the second half, a brief rumination about how simulation exercises like Conducttr's recent Kaliningrad Crucible can help if not prediction, at least analysis. The...
In Moscow's Shadows 133: Books on Russia, Books on Ukraine
February 04, 2024 09:00 - 50 minutes - 34.5 MBAs I'm travelling this weekend, this episode is a compilation of two sets of comparative book reviews already provided to my Patrons. First up, three recent books on Russia that, together, would make up one pretty fine, balanced and comprehensive one... Thomas Graham, Getting Russia Right (Polity) Richard Sakwa, The Lost Peace (Yale) Leon Aron, Riding the Tiger (AEI) In the second half, three more books, this time all about Ukraine: Maria Popova & Oxana Shevel, Russia and Ukraine. Enta...
In Moscow's Shadows 132: A View from the Provinces
January 28, 2024 11:00 - 48 minutes - 33.7 MBBarring particularly high-profile developments, we tend to look at Russia through the prism of Moscow (and maybe St Petersburg). How good a picture does this give us? To try and redress the balance, I use a recent Association D'Est report on 'Grassroots Propaganda and Repression in Russia's Komi Republic' to consider some of the wider lessons about protest and resistance in the provinces... The D'Est webage is here, and you can learn more about the Bear Market brief here (substack) and here...
In Moscow's Shadows 131: European Strategy and Vorobyov's Prospects
January 21, 2024 11:00 - 1 hour - 47.4 MBA podcast of two halves. First of all, I look at the dilemmas and limitations facing European (EU and UK) strategy over Ukraine. Why is it so hard? After the break, I consider another of the younger officials sometimes listed as an up-and-comer: Moscow region governor Andrei Vorobyov. Why do I not really rate him? The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affair...
In Moscow's Shadows 130: Questions I Can't Answer
January 14, 2024 10:00 - 45 minutes - 31.5 MBThe essence of podcasting and punditry may be to peddle confident certainties, but often we don’t really know. So today I raise some important questions to which I really don’t know the answer, but which, alas, matter. When will Russians' patience run out? What will the next 'black swan' disruptor be? Would a ceasefire in 2024 benefit Ukraine more than Russia? The Foreign Affairs article by Emma Ashford and Kelly A. Grieco I cite is here. The KCL event I mention is here, the programme of t...
In Moscow's Shadows 129: It's All About Putin's Eggs
January 07, 2024 10:00 - 39 minutes - 27.3 MBRussia is still gripped by an egg crisis, after prices rose 46% last year. Now the security apparatus is investigating hoarding and profiteering, the Agriculture Ministry is talking price controls and Lukashenko is having some fun at Putin's expense. At the risk of sounding glib, in this podcast I explain why the crisis explains everything you need to know about Putin's Russia... The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive c...
In Moscow's Shadows 128: Politics, War and Lunacy - a look forward to 2024
December 29, 2023 09:00 - 55 minutes - 38.2 MBLess whimsical than the last one, the final episode of 2023 looks ahead to the coming year: the candidates for the presidential elections, the prospects for the war, and - spinning off a deeply-bizarre interview with hawkish academic Sergei Karaganov - whether the Kremlin can find a convincing narrative. The Karaganov interview is here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter...
In Moscow's Shadows 127: When Napoleon was Nuked and Other Russian Conspiracy Theories
December 23, 2023 08:00 - 55 minutes - 38.2 MBWas Moscow nuked in 1812? Have a thousand years of history been made up to conceal the power of the 'Russian Horde'? Was Lenin a mushroom? Are reptiloids trying to subvert Russia with Satanism? Of course not: but these -- and many, many more -- conspiracy theories and mobilised falsehoods remain deeply and depressingly prevalent in Russia, and even in a way shape policy. Why? Join me in a meandering exploration of the wild and wacky world of Russian conspiracy theory/ The podcast's corporat...
In Moscow's Shadows 126: Truth and Tedium in Putin's Marathon Town Hall and the Russian Press
December 17, 2023 10:00 - 45 minutes - 31.6 MBI felt I ought to cover Putin's combined press conference and online town hall, but it was just so, so boring. And maybe that's the point: tedium weaponised as the new electoral strategy. But what else can we read into the Kremlin's public messaging? To explore that, after some brief thoughts on that 4 hour 4 minute banquet of banality, I delve into the world of Russian tabloids this weekend... Details of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime event on Monday that I men...
In Moscow's Shadows 125: Putin's Coming Back! And So's the Cold War?
December 10, 2023 10:00 - 49 minutes - 34.2 MBSo, surprise, surprise, Putin's standing for re-election. A few thoughts on how it was announced and the vibe around it, before I look at 'Preventing the Next War,' a report from DGAP, the German Council on Foreign Relations, that believes Russia could rearm within 6 years of the end of the war, and that if NATO has not already armed itself to match by then, it would invade. I'm not convinced -- but think it is crucial to have the debate. The DGAP report is here. The podcast's corporate pa...
In Moscow's Shadows 124: Putin's Performative Politics
December 03, 2023 10:00 - 53 minutes - 36.9 MBThere's a myth that authoritarian leaders don't have to worry about public politics: arguably they have to worry all the more. Spinning off from the recent bizarre criminalisation of the mythical 'international LGBT movement' and one or more raids on gay clubs, I unpack how I think Putin's political 'offer' to Russians will emerge over the months leading up to presidential elections: social conservatism, a warfighting nation rather than a nation at war, a scapegoated country, but also a 'nor...
In Moscow's Shadows 123: Russia's 'Red-Brown' Leftists, and How I Became A Voice of the West
November 19, 2023 18:00 - 55 minutes - 38.1 MBHas hell frozen over? Left Front leading light Leonid Razvozzhaev is backing the inclusion of ultra-nationalist Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin in unofficial 'people's primaries' for presidential opposition candidates. How is the Russian left different from the West's, and why does this make 'red-brown' alliances with the nationalists more plausible and worrying? And after the break, how some of my writings have been interpreted of some kind of signal of Western willingness to make a deal over Ukrai...
In Moscow's Shadows 122: Taking on Conventional Wisdom About Putin
November 12, 2023 10:00 - 42 minutes - 29.5 MBAfter looking at a few recent news stories that caught my eye, on everything from the Ministry of Happiness to a surprisingly subversive economic plan, I look at four conventional wisdoms about Putin. He knows what he wants and it never changes. He doesn't have to care about public opinion. He needs the war to go on for ever. He can't be negotiated with. It's not, in my opinion, that they are all outright wrong, but two of them are, and two need more nuance. Without understanding that, we co...
In Moscow's Shadows 121: Making Sense of Makhachkala
November 04, 2023 17:00 - 51 minutes - 35.6 MBWhat can we learn from the ugly anti-Semitic riot at Makhachkala airport? Officially sanctioned, foreign-inspired subversion, a symptom of state failure or societal anti-Semitism? I don't think any of these capture the significance of the incident, but instead it highlights some fundamental challenges for Moscow, and reasons why the North Caucasus is almost uniquely problematic for the regime. The Moscow Times article by Almut Rochowanski that I mention is here. The podcast's corporate par...
In Moscow's Shadows 120: Putin is Dead! (well, probably not)
October 29, 2023 09:00 - 43 minutes - 30 MBIn what sounds more like a scene from Armando Ianucci's Death of Stalin, an anonymous Telegram channel tells us Putin is dead, his body stuffed into deep freeze while Patrushev takes over. Credible? Not really, but that doesn't stop many Western media outlets running with the story. So, why this fascination with Putin's health, why does it matter, and what do I think would happen, if Putin really did die in office? As a natural follow on, in the second part, I look at PM Mikhail Mishustin's...
In Moscow's Shadows 119: Manifestos to the Left of me, Manifestos to the Right
October 22, 2023 11:00 - 58 minutes - 40.2 MBAlexei Navalny has posted a list of 10 questions he thinks all movers and shakers in the Russian (opposition) political scene ought to be asked ahead of the 2024 presidential elections. His questions, and his list of those whom he thinks should answer them, and an interesting bid to remain politically relevant - but also tell us something about his thinking. On the other end of the political spectrum, uber-hawk Nikolai Patrushev has written an article (available in Russia and a PDF here) wh...
In Moscow's Shadows 118: Clueless in Gaza - Russia and the current Middle East crisis
October 14, 2023 08:00 - 42 minutes - 29.1 MBA quick and early episode looking at what roles and goals - if any - Russia has in the current Hamas-Israel war. The bottom line is that Russia was not behind the terrorist invasion, doesn't really know how to respond, is putting out different and even contradictory messages and yet will taken whatever advantage from it that it can. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terro...
In Moscow's Shadows 117: Security Politics and the President Who Can't Change His Spots
October 08, 2023 07:00 - 46 minutes - 31.7 MBThe Russian police are increasingly under pressure. The National Guard is getting into the mercenary game. There is talk (probably empty) of Wagner being reconstituted under Evgeny Prigozhin's son Pavel. These three apparently separate developments all point to the way Putin is not learning the lessons of past mistakes. In the second segment, another profile of a potential successor to Putin: the fixer-technocrat with the 'Cheshire Cat' smile, Dmitri Kozak. The podcast's corporate partner ...
In Moscow's Shadows 116: Putin's "Forever War" (which isn't)
October 01, 2023 16:00 - 51 minutes - 35.3 MBThe easy cliche that the Ukraine conflict may become a 'forever war' is a convenient notion for Putin - it may help dismay his enemies, and provides an organising principle for 'late Putinism.' To paraphrase the SF game Warhammer 40,000, in the grim darkness of the present, there is only war. Yet, of course, no war last forever and, in particular, Russians themselves don't seem to be buying this notion. Even government pollsters suggest only a small minority are really enthused by the war -...
In Moscow's Shadows 115: Kadyrov and the Conflict Entrepreneurs
September 24, 2023 10:00 - 1 hour - 42.9 MBIs Kadyrov dying? If so, who might replace him - and what may this mean for Russia. If Chechnya again becomes unstable, will Putin be faced with a choice of losing in Ukraine or in Chechnya? In any case, Kadyrov was one of the first and most successful of Russia's 'conflict entrepreneurs,' able to monetise the threat or actuality of war. The invasion of Ukraine is creating a whole slew of new conflict entrepreneurs, who will represent not just a constituency with an interest in continued c...
In Moscow's Shadows 114: Six of the Best (?)
September 10, 2023 09:00 - 52 minutes - 36.2 MBAs a way of getting away from the perennial talk of Wagner and the Ukrainian counter-offensive, I look at current stories relating to six individuals - Dmitri Medvedev, Anton Siluanov, Sergei Surovikin, Sergei Sobyanin, Valentin Konovalov and Sergei Aksenov - and what they tell us about today's Russia, Nepotism, statism, warlordism, and the limits of Kremlin power... The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercis...
In Moscow's Shadows 113: And Goodnight Wagner?
September 03, 2023 08:00 - 51 minutes - 35.6 MBAfter looking at Prigozhin last time, this episode I focus on Wagner. Will it survive in Africa (I suspect not), what this may mean for Russia's Africa non-quite-a-strategy, and will we see a 'Wagnerisation' of the Russian military (probably) and society (hopefully not). And why Wagner was like one of the great global football teams... The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-te...
In Moscow's Shadows 112: Goodbye Prigozhin
August 27, 2023 09:00 - 46 minutes - 31.7 MBWhat can we say about the death of Prigozhin (beyond good riddance?). At the risk of overstating the case, I feel this is a watershed moment, and Putin's willingness to turn on his own, at the expense of his own promises, is both symptomatic of deep decay in the system and also something that will further undermine it. The Sunday Times article I mention is here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises i...
In Moscow's Shadows 111: A Nervous Kremlin and a Neglected Police Force
August 20, 2023 08:00 - 58 minutes - 40.2 MBMarking the anniversary of the second day of the 1991 August Coup, the day when momentum began to shift away from the hardliners behind the seizure of power, a look at how the Putin regime - the spiritual descendant of those same plotters - is getting jumpy, cracking down on critics left and right and unable to win the loyalty of society. An aspect of this, which I explore in the second part, is how a Russian policeman's lot is not a happy one, and not only is Russia not the massively-heavi...
In Moscow's Shadows 110: Why Navalny Doesn't Hate The Goat
August 12, 2023 13:00 - 55 minutes - 38.1 MBHe may have just been sentenced to another 19 years, now in a 'special regime colony', but the indomitable Alexei Navalny has just produced a broadside against the 'reformists' of the 1990s - whom he considers nothing of the sort, but instead the architects of kleptocracy and authoritarianism. And it's hard to disagree with that. I go through what is in effect his manifesto, with lots of quotes and also lots of my own marginalia, and conclude by questioning whether Navalny's very purity of p...
In Moscow's Shadows 109: A Tale of Two Last Wars, Afghanistan and Ukraine
July 26, 2023 11:00 - 53 minutes - 37 MBCan one draw meaningful parallels between the Soviets' 1979-88 war in Afghanistan, and the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine? The wars may have been very different, but I would suggest there are ways in which the Afghanistan experience helps inform our understanding of the Ukraine war - and above all, how this will affect Russia politically, socially and economically in the future. The good news is that this is one reason why, just as Afghanistan was the Soviet Union's last war, Ukraine should b...
In Moscow's Shadows 108: Where Have All The Generals Gone?
July 16, 2023 10:00 - 40 minutes - 28 MBIs there a post-mutiny purge of the military going on? What can we learn from the apparent dismissal or detention of figures such as Generals Surovikin and Popov? And what does this mean about the prospects of the war and whether there will be the military coup some seem to be anticipating? The Dara Massicot (@MassDara) twitter thread I mention starts here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hyb...
In Moscow's Shadows 107: Where Are We Now On Prigozhin's Mutiny?
July 09, 2023 09:00 - 56 minutes - 39 MBThere still seems no escaping the fallout from Prigozhin's mutiny, whether we're talking about the fate of Wagner in Africa or those bizarre wig selfies. I take a series of questions from Oligarch/Hetman patrons as a structure to look at what we do - and don't - know at present. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can al...