IFS Zooms In: The Economy
123 episodes - English - Latest episode: 13 days ago -Go beyond the 24-hour news cycle and get objective, independent analysis from the researchers behind the work. Hosted by Institute for Fiscal Studies Director, Paul Johnson. Every second Wednesday.
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Episodes
ELECTION SPECIAL: Your questions answered
June 27, 2024 15:32 - 40 minutes - 444 MBIn the final run up to the election, we answer your questions about everything from borrowing to growth and from AI to the part that luck plays in the economy. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
ELECTION SPECIAL: The big issues politicians haven't spoken about
June 25, 2024 12:31 - 36 minutes - 50.8 MBOn Monday, we released our comprehensive analysis of the parties manifestos at an event in Westminster. After some time digesting and analysing the manifestos, we’ve concluded that neither of the main parties is being honest with voters about the challenges we face in coming years. So, what are the manifestos missing? What are the big challenges facing us? And what information should voters be aware of as they head to the polls? Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership ...
ELECTION SPECIAL: Has 'levelling up' worked?
June 21, 2024 11:20 - 38 minutes - 52.2 MBWe discuss 'levelling up' and local government and see how much progress has been made. We also analyse the SNP and Plaid Cymru manifestos. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
ELECTION SPECIAL: The Reform UK and Green Party manifestos explained
June 18, 2024 11:00 - 25 minutes - 35.2 MBWe discuss the Reform UK and Green Party manifestos and give our reaction to the policies and pledges within them. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/ Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
ELECTION SPECIAL: The Labour manifesto explained
June 14, 2024 12:18 - 39 minutes - 54.1 MBWe discuss the Labour manifesto launched on Thursday and give our reaction to the policies and pledges within it. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/ Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
ELECTION SPECIAL: The Conservative manifesto explained
June 12, 2024 11:48 - 35 minutes - 48.8 MBWe discuss the Conservative manifesto launched on Tuesday and give our reaction to the policies and pledges within it. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/ Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
ELECTION SPECIAL: The government's record on tax
June 10, 2024 15:07 - 28 minutes - 38.7 MBIt’s manifesto week, and we’ll be coming to you with plenty of analysis of the promises, pledges and numbers. In this episode, we’ll dive into some work looking at the how the size and shape of the state have changed over recent decades, and how the tax system has changed since 2010. We'll also give our reaction to the Liberal Democrat manifesto. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/ Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more i...
ELECTION SPECIAL: The 'conspiracy of silence' on the economy
June 06, 2024 15:04 - 36 minutes - 49.8 MBThe last few days have seen plenty of competing claims about tax rises, but very little discussion of the very tight fiscal situation facing the next government. What problems will they face? Can growth ride to the rescue? Also in this episode, we explore what's happened to the education system, from funding and teacher pay, to falling pupil numbers and the impact of COVID. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/ Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See ...
ELECTION SPECIAL: The UK economy since 2008
June 03, 2024 13:21 - 44 minutes - 60.6 MBSince 2008, the UK economy has faced a series of shocks and challenges, leaving the next government with a difficult task. From low growth to falling living standards, we ask what structural problems the next government faces. We also tackle announcements on limiting tax rises, apprenticeships and the NHS waiting list. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/ Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
ELECTION SPECIAL: What you need to know
May 28, 2024 14:08 - 38 minutes - 52.5 MBIn our first election special, we look at the broad economic picture and analyse announcements about the fiscal rules, the triple lock and tax. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/ Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
How to grow the economy
May 24, 2024 11:38 - 39 minutes - 54.3 MBAfter years of sluggish growth and flatlining productivity, a rare political consensus has emerged that growing the economy is one of the key priorities of the next government. With an election on the way, we're bound to hear pledges and policies on how to get the economy growing again. But how can we actually grow the economy? Can we get productivity growth back on track? And in what sectors can the UK lead?To help answer these questions, we’re joined by Anna Valero, Policy Fellow and Di...
The £600 billion problem awaiting the next government
April 25, 2024 08:43 - 46 minutes - 63.6 MBToday, we’re setting the stage for a key moment in UK politics — the upcoming spending review, expected this November. The spending review will set some £600 billion of departmental budgets from April 2025 onwards, and will be a crucial moment for the next government to lay out its priorities and plans for public services. How should the incoming government go about doing the next spending review? How can the government make sure they deliver on their priorities? And will they be constrain...
Should we worry about government debt?
April 11, 2024 14:46 - 39 minutes - 54.4 MBWe often hear about government debt in the headlines. Currently the UK government owes around £2.65 trillion, nearly 100% of UK GDP - the value of all the goods and services produced in the UK in a year. How has the debt level grown? Should we aspire to reduce the debt? And do we need to worry about high debt to GDP ratios? Joining us today to answer all these questions and more, is David Miles, Professor of Financial Economics at Imperial College Business School, a member of the OBR Budg...
Spring Budget 2024: What you need to know
March 07, 2024 17:29 - 44 minutes - 60.8 MBIn his Spring Budget, the Chancellor announced a 2% cut to National Insurance, amidst other measures on tax and spending. What will the impact of the measures be? How will it affect living standards? And what choices face the next Parliament? Joining us today are Helen Miller, Deputy Director at IFS and Ben Zaranko, Senior Research Economist at IFS. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/ Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for mo...
The NHS waiting list: when will it come down?
February 29, 2024 13:49 - 38 minutes - 52.6 MBSince the pandemic, the size the NHS waiting list has been in the headlines almost constantly. At the start of 2023, Rishi Sunak committed to decreasing the size of the waiting list as one of his ‘five priorities’, and since then it has actually gone up. So today, we’re going to dive into the NHS waiting list - what is it? How big is it? And is there a credible plan to get it back down? Joining us to answer those questions are Ben Zaranko and Max Warner, IFS economists who have recently p...
Are councils in crisis?
February 14, 2024 16:12 - 39 minutes - 53.7 MBOver recent months, you may have seen local authorities warning that they are facing a funding crisis. Since 2021, six local authorities have declared themselves effectively bankrupt, and many other local authorities have reported that they may soon be forced to do the same. How did we end up here? Why are local councils facing funding pressures? And what can government do to help them? Joining us to answer these questions are Tony Travers, a professor in the Department of Government at LS...
How to fix our irrational income tax system
January 25, 2024 14:20 - 40 minutes - 55.8 MBIncome tax and National Insurance Contributions are our biggest taxes. Together they raise almost half of all tax revenues. National Insurance Contributions were cut at the start of the year, but we’re in the middle of a multi-year freeze in tax thresholds that will amount to a tax rise of over £40 billion by the time it’s finished. And these are just the latest in a string of changes in how we tax personal incomes. From cliff edges and personal allowances, to Scotland's 6-band income tax...
The economic stories that will shape 2024
January 05, 2024 10:39 - 32 minutes - 329 MBAs we enter the new year, we take a look-ahead at what to expect in 2024. What will happen with the cost of living crisis? What might the Chancellor announce in his Spring Budget? What should we be looking out for during an election? This week, Paul is joined by colleagues Ben Zaranko, Helen Miller and Carl Emmerson to take a look at the stories which will define 2024. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/ Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acas...
The future of the state pension
December 21, 2023 08:57 - 35 minutes - 358 MBWith an ageing population, the UK faces a series of significant challenges with regard to its state pension. The OBR estimates that spending on the state pension, pension credit and winter fuel payment is expected to rise by 1.2% of national income (£32 billion per year in today’s terms) by 2050. How does the state pension work? What are the problems with it? And how can we reform it to work more effectively? In our final episode of the year, Paul is joined by Jonathan Cribb, Associate Dir...
Why we need to reform inheritance tax
December 06, 2023 12:33 - 38 minutes - 53.2 MBInheritance tax is arguably the UK’s most unpopular tax - a recent YouGov poll found that just 20% of people deemed inheritance tax ‘fair’. Yet most people are unaffected by it - only a minority of estates currently pay inheritance tax. In this episode, Paul Johnson is joined by Arun Advani and David Sturrock to discuss the intricacies of inheritance tax. They cover the inequality inherent in the current system, the distortion of economic incentives resulting from exemptions, the small per...
The Autumn Statement explained
November 24, 2023 07:41 - 30 minutes - 42.4 MBThis week, the Chancellor delivered his Autumn Statement. After weeks of speculation about headroom, tax cuts and pre-election giveaways, the dye is cast and the policies are in. What was in it? What will the impact of his announcements be? And how sensible were the policies announced? Joining us today are Helen Miller, Head of Tax at IFS, Ben Zaranko, Senior Research economist and Tom Waters, Senior Research economist at IFS. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/ Become a member: https://i...
Cake or biscuit? The UK's byzantine VAT system explained
November 16, 2023 14:50 - 33 minutes - 46.4 MBFrom jaffa cakes and gingerbread men, to fur skin coats and children's clothes, our VAT system and its byzantine rules seem, on the surface, to be a fun quirk of the UK tax system.But dig deeper, and one finds economic distortions and inefficiencies due to the complex way the UK's third largest tax is levied.Leading us through this maze of complexity are Helen Miller, Deputy Director and IFS tax expert, and Dan Neidle, a tax lawyer and founder of Tax Policy Associates. Hosted on Acast. See ...
The Expert Factor: What next for Net Zero?
November 06, 2023 12:12 - 33 minutes - 46.4 MBClimate change used to be that rarest of things in British politics – an issue over which there was broad interparty consensus. That consensus saw Ed Miliband oversee the passing of the Climate Change Act in 2008, committing the UK to an 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050; Theresa May enshrining of the target of net zero in law; and Boris Johnson going further still, increasing the target for 2030 reductions to 68%. But recently we have seen a divergence from this consensus,...
The Expert Factor: What can be done to fix standards in public life?
October 30, 2023 14:25 - 41 minutes - 57.2 MBDo you remember when politics was the domain of good chaps and a time when politicians could be trusted to stick to the rules? Ok, so maybe there was never quite such a rose-tinted age – but from lobbying scandals to accusations of minsters bullying their staff, standards in politics seem to have been slipping in recent years. So this week the Expert Factor team take a deep dive into standards and ethics in public life – and how they are meant to be uphold. Why have standards been on the sl...
The Expert Factor: Why is the UK so bad at infrastructure?
October 27, 2023 13:08 - 31 minutes - 43.9 MBFrom HS2 cancellations to Heathrow’s still unbuilt third runway, the over-budget Elizabeth line to the repeated delays to the Hinkley C nuclear reactor, why is the UK so bad at infrastructure projects? This week the Expert Factor team – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – take a deep dive into what goes wrong when the UK wants to build big things. How did the costs for HS2 get so high? ...
The Expert Factor: Is there any money left?
October 20, 2023 08:22 - 40 minutes - 55.9 MBRising inflation, a cost of living crisis, striking public sector workers, the NHS facing another winter crisis… costs on the public purse are spiralling and government borrowing is being pushed still higher. So is it true to say there is no more money left? This week the Expert Factor team take a deep dive into the state of Britain’s public finances. What would it mean if we stick to current tax and spend policies? What choices are facing this country’s politicians and its public services...
The economic picture facing the Chancellor
October 18, 2023 09:00 - 44 minutes - 61.5 MBOn the 22nd November, the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will give his Autumn Statement. He will update MPs on the country's finances and the government's plans for tax and public spending, based on the latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. In this episode, we speak to Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director at IFS and Ben Nabarro, Chief UK Economist at Citigroup, about the underlying economic situation facing the Chancellor. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
An honest conversation about net zero
October 11, 2023 15:14 - 43 minutes - 958 MBRecently, Rishi Sunak announced significant changes to the UK's net zero pathway. A ban on the sale of combustion engines has been pushed back to 2035, instead of a 100% phase out of gas boilers by 2035, this has been changed to 80%, and he’s scrapped energy efficiency targets for homes. What is the impact of the announcement? Who will it affect? How will it alter the UK's path to net zero? Joining us today is Chris Stark, Chief Executive of the Climate Change Committee, an independent, st...
The Expert Factor: What is Britain’s place in the world?
October 09, 2023 11:03 - 34 minutes - 47.2 MBSome politicians are keen to talk up global Britain. Others boast that the UK is world leader in, well, just about everything. But some say this is a country in non-stop decline. So what’s the true story? This week the Expert Factor team take a deep dive into Britain’s place in the world. How do other countries view the UK after a tumultuous time in Westminster? What is the state of the UK’s post-pandemic economy compared to other countries? Just how special is the ‘special’ relationship wi...
The Expert Factor: What is the Point of Party Conferences?
September 29, 2023 12:34 - 21 minutes - 29.6 MBSubscribe to The Expert Factor feed: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-expert-factor/id1709487231 A general election is looming. Manifestos are being drafted. The battle of ideas is intensifying. From tackling climate change to turning around the economy, rethinking Britain’s place in the world to restoring trust in politics, the UK is facing huge challenges. So how can we make sense of it all? The EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven’t had enough of experts. Each week...
The materials that shape our economy
September 13, 2023 10:01 - 38 minutes - 52.4 MBFrom silicon chips to fertiliser, the last few years have shown us that where our materials come from matters massively to the stability of our economy. How we get stuff out of the ground, processed and into complex global supply chains is a vital and oft-overlooked part of our economy - with ramifications for government policy across all sectors. In this episode, we speak with Ed Conway, Economics Editor at Sky News and author of a new book Material World: The Making of Civilisation. Fi...
Big firm, little firm: are differences between companies driving inequality and holding back growth?
August 30, 2023 14:12 - 33 minutes - 45.3 MBDebates about inequality often focus on inequalities between people. But what about inequalities between firms? Recent decades have seen the emergence of giant, multinational firms - the FAANGs of this world. But over 40% of registered businesses in the UK have less than 10 employees. What do we mean when we talk about inequality between firms? Are inequalities between firms limiting UK business dynamism? And do governments need to step in and enforce competition rules? Joining us this ep...
Still a man’s world? Gender inequalities, parenthood and the workplace
August 23, 2023 13:56 - 37 minutes - 52.1 MBOver the past decades, women have drawn closer to men in a variety of areas - education, university degrees and workforce participation. But, women still earn less on average than men. In this episode, we ask why this pay gap opens up, whether things have improved in recent years, and talk about one key factor affecting women’s pay - kids. Joining us are Alison Andrew, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Oxford, Christine Farquharson, Senior Research Economist at IFS and ...
Levelling Up: Is inequality between places Britain’s biggest problem?
August 16, 2023 10:41 - 27 minutes - 38.5 MBSince 2019, we’ve all heard a lot about levelling up. It makes sense that our politics is centered around it - of all types of inequality, the public seems most concerned about the geographical sort. But do the numbers back this up? How much of Britain’s inequality is generated by differing fortunes in different parts of the country? And what might an effective “levelling up” agenda look like? In this episode, we speak to Xiaowei Xu, Senior Research Economist at IFS, James Banks, Profe...
When and why should we care about inequality?
August 09, 2023 11:44 - 31 minutes - 43.6 MBWe see inequalities all the time, whether at the school gates, the hospital, when travelling round the country and definitely when turning on the news. But why should we care about inequality? What has happened to inequality over recent decades? And can government do anything about it? We speak to Professor Sir Angus Deaton, an economist who is an expert on inequality and leads the IFS-Deaton Review, Debra Satz, a philosopher and Dean of the School of Humanities and Sciences at Stanford U...
COMING SOON: IFS Zooms In: Inequality
August 03, 2023 15:35 - 1 minute - 2.46 MBInequalities are one of the defining issues of the modern age. We see inequalities all the time, whether at the school gates, the hospital, when travelling round the country and definitely when turning on the news. Over the next month on the IFS Zooms In, we are bringing you a mini-series looking at inequality in Britain. We’ll be looking at a range of issues, from what’s happened to inequality over the last several decades and why that might matter, to more specific issues such as the ro...
HIGHLIGHT: The future of public sector pensions
June 22, 2023 16:19 - 37 minutes - 52.1 MBThis week, we're bringing you an episode from the archives, looking at the future of public sector pensions. We'll be back in two weeks with a new episode. ----------------------------------- In an era where those in the private sector have seen their pension provision decrease, pensions in the public sector continue to look generous. But is this sustainable? Should we change the balance between pay and pensions for those in the public sector? What does the future hold for public sector ...
The economics of immigration
June 08, 2023 15:30 - 38 minutes - 52.8 MBOver the past 13 years, successive governments have pledged to bring immigration down, but have failed to do so. Recently, the government announced that net immigration for 2022 was around 600,000. How many people are migrating and where are they coming from? How has Brexit shifted the dynamics of migration? What is the impact of migration on the wages of native-born workers? And what could government do if it wanted to achieve its target of reducing migration? In this episode, Paul speak...
Work from home: what does the future look like?
May 24, 2023 10:39 - 37 minutes - 51.7 MBSince the start of the pandemic in March 2020, the topic of working from home has been everywhere and has seemingly affected everything. From big companies calling workers back to the office and city centre food chains struggling, to house price jumps in rural areas and zoom fatigue, the transition to work from home is one of the biggest shifts in working patterns in the last century. But what evidence do we have on the success of remote working? Are people more or less productive at home? ...
What's wrong with inflation?
May 10, 2023 10:00 - 31 minutes - 43.7 MBOver the past year, the UK has seen very high inflation, affecting households and businesses across the country. But what is actually wrong with inflation? How do we measure it? And what is the way out of it? We speak to Chris Giles, economics editor at the Financial Times and former IFS economist, and Peter Levell, Associate Director at IFS, both inflation experts. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/pensions-review Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Aca...
Why politicians need to think long-term about pensions
April 26, 2023 15:51 - 30 minutes - 41.4 MBFrom declining homeownership rates and low pension saving, to high numbers of self-employed people with no pensions at all, it seems that future generations face steep challenges in retirement. Recently, IFS launched a new review of the pensions system, supported by the Abdrn Financial Fairness Trust, to look into these issues and seek policy solutions to help politicians navigate these challenges. Joining us today to talk through the challenges facing the UK pensions system are Heidi Karj...
The stealth tax rise
April 06, 2023 07:06 - 29 minutes - 40.6 MBTo many, the start of the new tax year in April will seem quiet, more of the same with no big changes to the tax system announced by the government. But hidden beneath the surface lie a series of stealthy tax rises - freezes to thresholds which coupled with rising inflation are projected to raise around £30 billion for the Treasury over the next few years and hit household finances hard. Here to reveal the truth are Helen Miller, Head of Tax at IFS, and Tom Waters, Associate Director at IF...
The Spring Budget Explained
March 16, 2023 17:07 - 36 minutes - 50.2 MBChancellor Jeremy Hunt recently outlined his Spring Budget, with big announcements on childcare, corporation tax, pensions and more. We dive into the detail and bring you our expert analysis on the Budget. Joining us are Ben Zaranko, public finances expert, Christine Farquharson, childcare expert and Helen Miller, tax expert. Find out more: www.ifs.org.uk/podcast Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Are high energy prices here to stay?
March 08, 2023 12:51 - 33 minutes - 45.4 MBFrom price caps and pipelines to price guarantees and LPG, the rising cost of energy has been central to understanding the economy over the past year. As we come out the cold winter period, we ask whether high energy prices are here to stay? What is happening with the energy market? Should we expect further price shocks? And can we decarbonise our energy supply while keeping bills affordable? Joining us are Heidi Karjalainen, Research Economist at IFS, and Giles Wilkes, a senior fellow...
How to tax the rich?
February 24, 2023 12:31 - 43 minutes - 59.6 MBFrom non-doms to offshore investment vehicles - how the rich are taxed, and how they avoid it, has been all over the headlines. But who are the 1%? How much tax do they pay? And should government tax them more? Joining us are Helen Miller, Deputy Director at IFS and our Head of Tax, and Dan Neidle, Founder of Tax Policy Associates and a former tax lawyer. Find out more: www.ifs.org.uk/podcast Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/priva...
The state of the NHS
February 08, 2023 16:07 - 46 minutes - 63.9 MBWith COVID, strikes, staff shortages, an enormous waiting list and an ever-ageing population (amongst other issues), the NHS is coming under greater pressure than ever. In this episode, we take a look at the state of the NHS across a range of areas. How is the service doing at the moment? Will we see a pay settlement for nurses and other workers? And are there any reasons to hope that better days are ahead? Joining us are Saffron Cordery, Deputy Chief Executive of NHS Providers, a membersh...
Pandemics, recessions and mental health: young people and jobs in 2023
January 25, 2023 15:52 - 31 minutes - 43.4 MBTwo years ago, in the depths of lockdown, the future for young people looked bleak. Policymakers worried about an unemployment crisis, lost career opportunities and a generation of young people missing out on key milestones. The reality - at least on the jobs front - is far rosier than many predicted. But is it all good news for those who graduated during COVID and entered the jobs market during the work from home era? What about those in non-graduate jobs? And what about the next generati...
Strikes, Budgets, Brexit and elections: a look ahead to 2023
January 11, 2023 15:05 - 43 minutes - 59.2 MBHappy New Year! After a tumultuous 2022, we look to the year ahead and hope for calmer waters. Joining us on our voyage into the future are Dr. Hannah White, Director of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon, Director of the UK in a Changing Europe. From strikes and immigration, to Budgets and Brexit, we offer our best analysis of the situation we're currently in, and what we expect to happen next year. Find out more: www.ifs.org.uk/podcast Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/ind...
Are we in a new era of austerity?
November 24, 2022 12:46 - 32 minutes - 44.6 MBLast week, the Chancellor gave his autumn statement. In the run-up, many expected significant cuts to public spending, ushering in a new era of austerity. But did these anticipated cuts happen? How important is it to bring down debt? And after a decade of cuts in the 2010s, how are departments faring? This week, we speak with Gemma Tetlow, Chief Economist at the Institute for Government, and Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director at IFS. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership ...
What we owe each other: a new social contract
November 16, 2022 10:33 - 43 minutes - 59.4 MBThis week, we're bringing you the IFS Annual Lecture, given this year by Baroness Minouche Shafik. In it she talks about what a new social contract for the 21st century would look like. Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-annual-lecture-baroness-minouche-shafik Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.