How Will the Ukraine Crisis Impact India’s Economy?

This week, the Indian government revealed that India’s economy expanded by 5.4 percent in the third quarter of the current fiscal year, which was well below market expectations. The latest GDP print raises fresh questions about the health of the Indian economy at a time when global headwinds are starting to pick up. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the spike in oil and other commodity prices, and persistent inflation all pose serious risks to India’s macroeconomic outlook.

This week on the podcast, Milan sits down with economist Sajjid Chinoy to discuss how India might weather these external shocks. Sajjid is chief India economist at JP Morgan and one of the most respected voices on the Indian macroeconomy. Milan and Sajjid discuss India’s policy trade-offs, the latest underwhelming GDP numbers, and India’s progress on asset sales. Plus, Milan asks Sajjid about the reforms needed to boost India’s long-term growth outlook.  

Episode notes:

Sajjid Chinoy, “Managing the crude price pressure,” Indian Express, March 4, 2022.Sajjid Chinoy, “4 choices, no free lunch: Budget attempted a balancing act in a complex domestic & global macro environment,” Times of India, February 3, 2022.“Breaking Down India’s Budget,” (with Roshan Kishore), Grand Tamasha, February 16, 2022.Sajjid Chinoy and Toshi Jain, “India’s 4Q21 GDP underwhelms, underscoring the pandemic’s scars,” J.P. Morgan, February 28, 2022.