Argentina HEAT WAVE + Ethanol Production Rebound

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A heat wave is on the horizon for Argentina, with potential implications for crop forecasts. The Buenos Aires grain exchange has issued a forecast for a heat wave in most of Argentina's farming regions over the next week. While above-normal temperatures are expected, there is also anticipation of rainfall in northern, western, and southern Argentina. Unfortunately, the central and southern regions are expected to remain dry. This weather pattern, if it persists, could lead to downward revisions in Argentina's corn and soybean crop estimates in the coming weeks. 🌡️🌾🌞

Corn and soybean futures showed resilience on Wednesday, maintaining their gains from Tuesday's upside reversal. Despite starting the day with losses, nearby corn and soybean contracts managed to end the day with modest gains. Technicians may view these higher closes as confirmation of Tuesday's reversal pattern. While South American weather remains a topic of discussion, there doesn't appear to be a singular fundamental catalyst for the two-day bounce in these markets. 🌽📈🌱

In the energy sector, US ethanol production increased last week. Weekly output reached 991,000 barrels, marking a 21% increase from the previous week. However, it was down 2.1% compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 24.3 million barrels, a 6% decrease from the previous week and a 3.2% decrease from the same week last year. Notably, the weekly decline in ethanol stocks, amounting to 1.5 million barrels, is the second-largest on record. Implied gasoline demand saw a 3.4% increase compared to the previous week and remained marginally higher than the same week last year, continuing the trend of elevated gasoline demand. Over the past four weeks, implied US gasoline demand has been up by an average of 4.3% compared to the same period last year. 🌾🚗📈

On the livestock front, the total US cattle inventory has dropped to its lowest level in seven decades. As of January 1, the US had 87.2 million head of all cattle and calves, reflecting a 2% decline from the previous year. This is the smallest cattle inventory since 1951, and it marks the fifth consecutive year of decline. Key factors contributing to this decline include drought conditions and elevated input costs, which have discouraged producers from rebuilding the cattle herd. The beef cowherd, calf crop, and beef replacement heifers also experienced reductions. 🐮📉💧

In financial news, the Fed has indicated that rate cuts in March are unlikely. After announcing no changes to interest rates during its January meeting, the Fed signaled that rate cuts are not on the immediate horizon for March. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for more data to confirm the downward trend in inflation before considering rate cuts. 💹🏦💲

The stock market experienced its third consecutive month of gains in January, although it dipped on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's announcement. Despite the day's losses, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all ended January positively. For the month, the S&P 500 gained 1.6%, the Dow increased 1.2%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1%. 📈📊💰