FX Talk - an Ebury podcast artwork

FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

93 episodes - English - Latest episode: about 19 hours ago -

The euro goes up, the dollar goes down, and China devalues the yuan. But what's behind these currency fluctuations? This forex podcast is all about the global currency market. Our three financial market analysts, who are also top Bloomberg forecasters, discuss macro-economic news and its effect on the global financial market - providing you with insights to make informed decisions. *The information contained in this podcast does not constitute a recommendation from any Ebury entity to the recipient.

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Episodes

The FX ramifications of a wider Middle East war

April 18, 2024 11:00 - 23 minutes - 16.1 MB

The FX market has been sparked back into life in the past fortnight. A bout of strong data out of the US economy, notably the March inflation and nonfarm payrolls reports, has led markets to push back their timetable for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Heightened tensions in the Middle East following Iran’s missile attack on Israel has also triggered safe-haven flows into the dollar, which has jumped to its strongest position against its major peers since November.  But, when do we see ...

When will the Bank of England cut UK interest rates?

April 05, 2024 11:00 - 19 minutes - 13.5 MB

March was an extraordinarily busy month in the foreign exchange market, with a host of major central bank announcements creating an interesting trading environment. The Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank both surprised investors, with the former raising interest rates for the first time since 2007, while the latter cut its main rate one meeting ahead of expectations. The dollar has rallied against most currencies globally, despite the Fed indicating to markets that it sees three US rate...

Exploring the dollar's decline and busy week of central bank decisions

March 14, 2024 11:00 - 22 minutes - 15.7 MB

The big talking point in the FX market in the past couple of weeks has been the sell-off in the US dollar, which has lost ground against almost every currency globally. FOMC chair Powell has hinted that a first US rate cut may be close, and markets are now eyeing the bank’s June meeting as the start date for easing. US macroeconomic data, meanwhile, has been rather mixed, with a weak nonfarm payrolls report offset by hotter-than-expected inflation data.  The coming week looks set to be a hi...

US convergence with Europe raises doubts over dollar strength

February 29, 2024 11:00 - 20 minutes - 13.9 MB

In this week’s episode, our analysts discuss the latest business activity PMI numbers out of the G3 economies, which seem to be pointing to a convergence in economic performance between the US and its major peers. Matt, Enrique and Roman also give their thoughts on what to expect from next week’s European Central Bank meeting. While the economy in the common bloc has ground to a near standstill, communications from Governing Council members have been hawkish, and a change in rates in March s...

UK follows Japan into recession

February 16, 2024 11:00 - 24 minutes - 17 MB

The UK economy crashed into a technical recession in the second half of 2023, after Britain’s GDP contracted for the second straight quarter in Q4. While this was no big surprise to investors, the magnitude of the downturn was more severe than anticipated. But, what impact did the news have on the pound? And how could the UK’s disappointing growth performance influence Bank of England monetary policy? Elsewhere, Japan’s economy also fell into recession, adding further misery to the yen. The...

FX 101: Jargon Busting - FX terminology made easy

February 07, 2024 11:00 - 7 minutes - 5.24 MB

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders. This episode will cover: 0.57 - Basics of Exchange Rates 2:50  - Bid and Offer Rates 3.57 - Types of Analysis 5.36 - ...

Can the UK evade recession's grip?

January 29, 2024 13:00 - 21 minutes - 15.1 MB

In this week's episode, we delve into key economic data releases and major central bank meetings that lie ahead. Recently, the USD has demonstrated notable strength, rallying across all G10 currencies. The driving force behind this surge? Markets adjusting expectations as the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March dips below 50%, marking the first time since the December FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and robust US economic data, including encouraging December retail sales...

Will the UK manage to avert a recession?

January 29, 2024 13:00 - 21 minutes - 15.1 MB

In this week's episode, we delve into key economic data releases and major central bank meetings that lie ahead. Recently, the USD has demonstrated notable strength, rallying across all G10 currencies. The driving force behind this surge? Markets adjusting expectations as the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March dips below 50%, marking the first time since the December FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and robust US economic data, including encouraging December retail sales...

FX 101: FX market structure and the role of liquidity providers

January 16, 2024 09:00 - 7 minutes - 5.39 MB

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cover: 0.55 - How the foreign exchange market operates 4:10  - Market dynamics and participants 5...

What to expect in the FX market in 2024

January 08, 2024 11:00 - 23 minutes - 15.9 MB

In this week's episode, our analysts turn their attention to the year ahead, and give their thoughts on what to expect in the FX market in the coming twelve months. What will be the most important themes in markets this year, and how could central bank easing cycles and the US and UK elections impact currencies? We also give our thoughts on the global economy, and discuss the arguments in favour of both stronger and weaker growth in 2024.  Our episode ends with our analysts providing their ...

Fed's bold pivot sets the stage for 2024

December 21, 2023 11:00 - 23 minutes - 16.4 MB

In this episode, we delve into the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly dovish shift following its December policy meeting. FOMC Chair Powell said the ‘progress’ had been made on inflation, while noting that discussions were already being had on interest rate cuts. The ‘dot plot’ was also revised lower, suggesting a total of 75 basis points of cuts in 2024. Markets embraced the narrative of imminent and rapid rate reductions, triggering a sharp sell-off in the US dollar against mo...

Falling inflation spells end to central bank rate hikes

November 22, 2023 14:00 - 20 minutes - 13.9 MB

We unpack the recent inflation developments, focusing on the disappointing October US and UK CPI reports. These both fell short of market expectations, leading to no shortage of volatility in markets. US headline inflation dropped sharply to 3.2%, while monthly inflation failed to rise for the first time since July 2022. This, coupled with a two-year low in the core measure, all but cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with its hiking cycle. The result was a sharp sell-off ...

FX 101: A brief history of currencies

November 17, 2023 09:00 - 10 minutes - 7.47 MB

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cover: 1. Barter System and Gold Coins 2. Gold Standard Era 3. Bretton Woods Agreement 4. Evolutio...

Fed, BoE and Scandi FX with Ebury’s Head of Nordics

November 08, 2023 11:00 - 22 minutes - 15.2 MB

We have a special guest in this episode of FX Talk, Ebury's Head of Nordics, Carl Lindh, as we debate the outlook for the main currencies in Scandinavia. Before we get into that, we discuss the fallout from the latest major central bank meetings, and October’s underwhelming US nonfarm payrolls report. Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England held rates steady this month, while hinting that further rate hikes were probably unlikely. The FOMC struck an optimistic tone on US growth, al...

Middle East tensions fuel safe-haven rush

October 18, 2023 12:00 - 21 minutes - 14.7 MB

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine has taken centre stage, with a focus on the recent Hamas attacks and the Israeli military's retaliatory actions. Meanwhile, financial markets remain fixated on economic data and central bank decisions. Following our previous episode, most currencies rebounded against the dollar, thanks in part to a dovish tone from several Fed policymakers that tempered expectations of more US rate hikes. However, the dollar has shown broad strength in the ...

US dollar reigns supreme: Is the market getting carried away?

October 05, 2023 14:00 - 18 minutes - 12.7 MB

September was a very busy month in the FX market, dominated by a host of major central bank meetings. Events kicked off with the ECB, which delivered a ‘dovish hike’, whereby it raised rates, but suggested that there was minimal appetite to hike again. Investors were taken aback by the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates steady, after the August UK inflation report missed expectations.  On the flip side, the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance, keeping rates unchanged, although ind...

Turbulence in China: How EM currencies are feeling the heat

August 30, 2023 13:00 - 23 minutes - 15.8 MB

In recent weeks, the USD has performed well largely due to safe-haven flows, which came about because of investors' concerns about economic slowdown in China. The slowdown is being evidenced by disappointing data like GDP,  PMI, retail sales, and industrial production, along with issues in the property sector. On the other hand, the US economy has shown great strength, with a healthy labour market and impressive growth indicators. In contrast, the Euro and Sterling have fallen from their hig...

FX 101: Understanding Exchange Rate Regimes

August 22, 2023 08:00 - 9 minutes - 6.28 MB

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cover: 1. Understanding exchange rates 2. Floating systems 3. Fixed exchange rates 4. Impact of C...

Central banks turn dovish: Are rate hikes at an end?

August 08, 2023 13:00 - 28 minutes - 19.5 MB

August is typically a quiet month in the financial markets as investors often take a break, seeking sunnier climates elsewhere. In consequence, volatility can be relatively low, and currency trades tend to be narrower due to the lack of substantial economic news or announcements. Predicting whether this pattern will follow suit this year is challenging without a definitive forecast. However, it's notable that there remains plenty for the markets to consider and for us to discuss. Over the p...

Dollar in distress: US inflation miss shakes markets

July 19, 2023 11:00 - 23 minutes - 16.4 MB

The past fortnight has been eventful with high volatility observed in both Emerging Markets (EM) and major currencies. The significant development was a sharp decline in the US Dollar (USD). Indeed, the USD Index reported one of the largest weekly sell-offs since the Global Financial Crisis. Investors reacted to a less-than-expected set of US inflation figures. The headline inflation dropped to 3% in March 2021, while the core inflation decreased to below 5% in November 2021. The sell-off ...

FX 101: What is GDP, and how is it calculated?

July 12, 2023 08:00 - 8 minutes - 5.89 MB

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cover: 1. Explanation of GDP and its importance. 2. Methods to calculate GDP. 3. Components of the...

Major central banks vs. emerging markets: A tale of diverging policies

July 06, 2023 09:00 - 25 minutes - 17.6 MB

Recording during a relatively calm period in the foreign exchange market. Most major currencies are experiencing narrow ranges, partly due to the summer season and national holidays, including Independence Day on July 4th in the US. Typically, summers are quieter for currency markets, but they haven't been completely inactive recently. Central bank leaders have taken a generally hawkish stance, as seen at the meeting in Sintra, Portugal. Powell has reiterated the possibility of a couple more...

Danger lurks in uncertain inflation outlook: How currencies navigate choppy waters

June 21, 2023 14:00 - 20 minutes - 13.8 MB

In this episode, we discuss the recent volatility in financial markets due to a number of major economic data releases and central bank announcements. The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish pause, hinting at the possibility of raising interest rates on two more occasions in 2023, while the European Central Bank raised rates yet again and indicated that another rate increase is on the way in July. Despite these hawkish stances, the dollar sold off across the board, leaving the hosts to consi...

How the May NFP report rocks the Fed's boat

June 07, 2023 14:00 - 21 minutes - 15 MB

In this exhilarating episode of FX Talk, our Market Analysts dive deep into the highly anticipated Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) meetings, set to take place on the 14th and 15th of June, respectively. Delve into the speculations surrounding the Fed's decision on interest rates and the impact of the latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on their considerations. We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Lik...

FX 101: Inflation explained

June 02, 2023 09:00 - 8 minutes - 5.91 MB

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cover: - Definition and explanation of inflation - Measurement of inflation - Types of inflation -...

EUR/USD slides on hawkish Fed bets, weak euro area data

May 26, 2023 15:00 - 22 minutes - 15.5 MB

We dive into the main reasons behind the recent strength of the US dollar in the global markets. The USD has been trading higher against most other G10 and emerging market currencies, except for a few exceptions such as Latin American ones. We explore what's been driving this rally, with a focus on market concerns surrounding the US debt ceiling and how they have contributed to the safe-haven flows into the greenback. We also discuss the ongoing negotiations in Washington around the debt cei...

The Fed's rate cut dilemma: 2023 or 2024?

May 12, 2023 10:00 - 18 minutes - 12.9 MB

Amidst important data releases, the US NFP beat expectations, but the US CPI reported a decline in inflationary pressures. G10 currencies have seen the USD as the worst-performing currency for the past two months (except for JPY), largely due to an increasingly confident market that the Fed is finished hiking rates after May meeting. In contrast, the ECB and BoE have more room to go. The ECB is still data-dependent, whereas the BoE voted to raise rates by 25bps at its May meeting. Despite th...

FX 101: How do central banks impact the FX market

April 25, 2023 10:00 - 9 minutes - 6.39 MB

Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.  This episode will cover: - What are central banks? - What is the purpose of central banks? - How do central banks s...

China's economy bounces back. But what about its currency?

April 21, 2023 14:00 - 27 minutes - 18.7 MB

Welcome to the latest episode of FX Talk, where we bring you all the latest news, headlines, and developments in the foreign exchange market. In this fortnightly dose, we cover the most important events that have occurred since our last episode. Despite a quieter period in the markets, banking uncertainty has been a key focus, which has now significantly abated. On the positive side, risk sentiment is high, with most currencies performing well against safe havens, and there has been a broad ...

Assessing the banking turmoil: Is the market panic an overreaction or justified?

March 30, 2023 09:00 - 25 minutes - 17.7 MB

In this episode, we discuss the recent banking turmoil, specifically the failure of SVB and its impact on the market. SVB's sensitivity to interest rate risk and its investment in long-duration bonds led to a significant mark-to-market hole in its balance sheet, causing depositors and investors to withdraw their funds en masse. This panic has contributed to the troubles faced by Credit Suisse, but we believe these failures are one-offs rather than systemic issues. While the market has stabil...

Big gamble or smart move? Powell hints at 50bp hike

March 09, 2023 10:00 - 21 minutes - 14.5 MB

Today's focus is on the major data that has reshaped expectations for central bank interest rates. Generally, we're observing two things: the activity data is holding up better than expected, and inflation is proving more persistent than hoped. As a consequence, markets are bracing for higher rates for a longer period. Let's start with the US. We have seen a string of positive surprises in recent macroeconomic data. The latest reports on GDP, retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation h...

The UK economy narrowly dodged a recession, but what's next?

February 15, 2023 10:00 - 22 minutes - 15.8 MB

Since the last episode, the markets have experienced a relatively quiet period, with most major currencies trading within narrow ranges. There were, however, some exceptions in Scandinavia, where certain currencies rallied sharply. For instance, the Swedish krona jumped following a hawkish announcement from Riksbank. On the other end of the scale, the euro underperformed and was the only G10 currency that failed to rally against the US dollar. That being said, there has been a noticeable in...

US dollar makes a comeback after NFP smashes expectations

February 03, 2023 17:00 - 22 minutes - 15.7 MB

The current trading environment is marked by volatility and choppiness, with most currencies trading within tight ranges throughout January. This can be attributed to a combination of the absence of major news events and anticipation surrounding announcements from central banks such as the Fed, ECB, and BoE. Starting with the Fed, their latest move was in line with expectations - a smaller 25bp hike was announced on Wednesday, following a 50bp hike in December. This move was heavily telegra...

How China's reopening will shake up currency markets

January 19, 2023 09:00 - 22 minutes - 15.5 MB

At the moment, the key theme in currencies is an improvement in risk sentiment and an appreciation in high-risk currencies, at the expense of lower-risk ones, such as the US dollar. The USD index has hit a June 2022 low and has fallen more than 10% since October, as the Federal Reserve slows its hiking cycle and global recession fears abate. Among the better performers, currencies closely linked to China have been doing well. In the G10, the Australian dollar has been doing particularly well...

The year ahead: what can we expect from the FX market in 2023?

January 04, 2023 12:00 - 22 minutes - 15.4 MB

What can we expect this year? The narrative in 2022 was much about central bank responses to rising inflation rates. Will that remain the case this year? Or will these central banks begin calling time on their tightening cycles. And what about the global economy? Are recession indeed on the way? Or will we just see modest downturns in growth?  In summary: what are the main themes to look out for in currencies in 2023? Our Market Analysts will tell you everything about it.  We’d like to hea...

What China’s reopening could mean for currency markets

December 08, 2022 10:00 - 19 minutes - 13.7 MB

China finally signs of an easing in its zero-Covid policy. It boosted the CNY and risk currencies against the USD. We see an improvement in risk sentiment and also signs of a downtrend of US inflation. We also are noticing growing expectation among investors for a dovish pivot during the Fed meeting next week.  We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence hel...

Dollar collapses as US inflation slows

November 16, 2022 11:00 - 17 minutes - 11.8 MB

If you’re following financial markets at the moment, there really is very little chance to catch your breath. Since our last episode, the market sentiment has improved and investors dialed back expectations for US rate hikes, weighed significantly on the dollar.  Meanwhile, the October US inflation report is much softer than expected. The big question is: What does that mean for the US dollar? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://link...

BoE goes big, but warns of deep recession

November 04, 2022 12:00 - 17 minutes - 11.9 MB

According to the BoE, further increases in interest rates may be required to bring inflation back down to target, but the bank stated that the peak in rates would be '‘lower than priced into financial markets''. On the UK economy, the BoE once again struck a sombre note. In its statement, the MPC spoke of a ‘very challenging’ outlook for the UK economy, mentioning the tightening in financial conditions since August. The committee also warned that the economy may already be in recession, and...

Pound extends climb after budget U-turn

October 19, 2022 10:00 - 23 minutes - 16.1 MB

Last time we spoke about the reaction in the pound to the budget and the potential impact of the tax cuts on the economy. Since then, we have seen one of the most dramatic U-turns in British political history. Most of the tax cuts (around 80%) that were announced have now been reversed.  How have markets reacted? Sterling posted decent gains and UK bond yields have stabilized. Big question for us: What’s next for the pound? Is this U-turn a green light to a sterling rally, or do downside ri...

FX volatility spikes, what UK budget means for GBP

October 05, 2022 12:00 - 18 minutes - 12.9 MB

What are the economic consequences of the mini-budget? Since the initial sell-off, the GBP has recovered in the past few sessions. What are the reasons for the recovery in the pound?  We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

British pound falls to 1985 lows. Time to buy?

September 21, 2022 09:00 - 23 minutes - 16 MB

We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk   Since our last episode, the US dollar has rallied against almost every other G10 currency, with the sole exception of the Swiss franc, which has benefitted from the hawkish turn from the Swiss National Bank. The main theme in markets has been one of risk aversion, as investors and economists pencil in weaker global growth during the remainder of 2022 and into next year.  Liked thi...

S3E15: Dollar loses steam after EUR/USD falls below parity

July 20, 2022 10:00 - 23 minutes - 16.4 MB

We’de like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  The main talking point has been the move below parity in EUR/USD for the first time since December 2002. The pair teetered on the brink of parity for a couple of sessions, before falling fairly comfortably below it on Thursday. A divergence in natural gas prices across the Atlantic was largely to blame for the move, with last week’s hotter-than-expected US inflation report enough t...

S3E14: Everything you need to know about the FX Market in 2022

July 07, 2022 08:00 - 29 minutes - 20.5 MB

Time flies when you’re having fun. So, this is a good chance for us to look back on the first six months of the year, and talk about our main highlights in the FX market so far this year. We then look ahead, and talk about what we expect during the remainder of 2022.

S3E13: Swiss franc flex its muscles, again

June 22, 2022 10:00 - 25 minutes - 17.8 MB

The Swiss franc was the best performing currency in the G10 last week after the SNB shocked markets by announcing a 50 basis point interest rate hike - the consensus was for no change. The bank also changed its wording on the franc, no longer calling it ‘highly valued’ and saying that it would be prepared to intervene in the market on both sides.

S3E12: A long time coming: ECB sets stage for historic rate hike

June 10, 2022 10:00 - 19 minutes - 13.5 MB

Markets will have one eye on next Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The Fed is set to raise rates by another 50 basis points next week and signal more hikes are coming at upcoming meetings. This will be followed by the Bank of England’s latest policy decision on Thursday.  But we’re going to focus first on Thursday’s ECB announcement, which delivered a long awaited hawkish pivot. In the bank’s statement, it explicitly said that it would raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting, a...

S3E11: Don’t panic, a recession is not here yet

May 25, 2022 14:00 - 22 minutes - 15.7 MB

On the whole, most economies rebounded well from the COVID induced slowdowns in 2021, as an easing in restrictions allowed for an unleashing in pent-up demand. While the strict covid restrictions are a thing of the past for most of us, a number of other downside risks to growth have materialized of late, causing markets and central bankers to fret that a slowdown could be on the cards during the remainder of the year.

S3E10: How is the Federal Reserve policy affecting the foreign exchange market?

May 11, 2022 16:00 - 18 minutes - 13 MB

We spoke on our last episode about the sharp sell-off witnessed in risk assets in late-April, which sent most higher risk currencies lower against the safe-havens, notably the US dollar. The US dollar index, which measures the currency against a weighted basket of its peers, rose to its strongest position in almost 20 years earlier in the week, as heightened global growth concerns triggered a ‘risk off’ mode in markets.  The dollar has also continued to be well supported by expectations for...

S3E9: Dollar is king as market fears drive volatility

April 28, 2022 15:00 - 20 minutes - 14.2 MB

In FX, we’ve seen a classic period of ‘risk off’ trading. The US dollar has been by far and away the best performing currency, rallying sharply against pretty much everything else. Most emerging market currencies are down, with the exception of the Russian ruble, some more than 4 or 5% in the past week alone. The major currencies have also suffered rather extraordinary sell-offs, in most cases to multi-month or multi-year lows. Two of the most notable examples, and the two currencies that w...

S3E8: Can the euro rebound on growing ECB rate hike bets?

April 13, 2022 10:00 - 21 minutes - 14.9 MB

For the most part in the last month, we’ve seen an improvement in risk sentiment - the safe-havens have generally underperformed, notably the Japanese yen, which has slumped to around its lowest level at any time since I started working in the FX industry, and at the release of this recording may well have fallen to its lowest level since 2002.  The higher risk currencies have generally rebounded, notably the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone in the G10, while among emerging markets: th...

S3E7: Russian invasion triggers currency chaos

March 02, 2022 12:00 - 24 minutes - 16.8 MB

Investors were caught wrong-footed by news of the full-scale invasion last Thursday, despite a host of warnings, with markets holding onto misplaced optimism that a peaceful solution could be found that would avoid conflict. In FX, almost all emerging market currencies sold-off, most rather sharply, albeit there were some exceptions (notably those in Asia, including CNY). European currencies in general have underperformed, given their proximity to the conflict and close economic ties with R...