Tom Davidson on How Quickly AI Could Automate the Economy

Future of Life Institute Podcast

English - September 08, 2023 13:06 - 1 hour - 162 MB - ★★★★★ - 100 ratings
Technology Homepage Download Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed

Previous Episode: Imagine A World: What if we designed and built AI in an inclusive way?

Next Episode: Imagine A World: What if global challenges led to more centralization?

Tom Davidson joins the podcast to discuss how AI could quickly automate most cognitive tasks, including AI research, and why this would be risky.

Timestamps:
00:00 The current pace of AI
03:58 Near-term risks from AI
09:34 Historical analogies to AI
13:58 AI benchmarks VS economic impact
18:30 AI takeoff speed and bottlenecks
31:09 Tom's model of AI takeoff speed
36:21 How AI could automate AI research
41:49 Bottlenecks to AI automating AI hardware
46:15 How much of AI research is automated now?
48:26 From 20% to 100% automation
53:24 AI takeoff in 3 years
1:09:15 Economic impacts of fast AI takeoff
1:12:51 Bottlenecks slowing AI takeoff
1:20:06 Does the market predict a fast AI takeoff?
1:25:39 "Hard to avoid AGI by 2060"
1:27:22 Risks from AI over the next 20 years
1:31:43 AI progress without more compute
1:44:01 What if AI models fail safety evaluations?
1:45:33 Cybersecurity at AI companies
1:47:33 Will AI turn out well for humanity?
1:50:15 AI and board games