The Case For Bonds | Alfonso Peccatiello

Alfonso (“Alf”) Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and host of The Macro Trading Floor, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he is starting to like bonds at this point in the business cycle. Alf and Jack discuss inflation, the labor market, the Fed hiking cycle, “higher for longer,” the housing market, the earnings cycle, and how all of these factors affect the future performance of longer-duration Treasury bonds.

Filmed on March 2, 2023.
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Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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The Macro Compass on Substack: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/
The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/
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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction
(00:16) Alf's Framework for 2023
(08:37) Bond Market Is NOT Currently Pricing A True "Higher For Longer"
(15:06) The Housing Market
(28:22) Recession in June 2023, Says Alf
(33:16) Permissionless plug
(34:19) Decoupling - Could Oil & Copper Rise Even As U.S. Enters Recession?
(38:55) Alf's View On Bonds & Stocks
(45:04) Is It Likely That Bonds Can Perform As The Fed Continues to Hike? (Jack's Question)
(48:35) Inflation
(52:29) Research Plug
(53:27) Are Consumers "Feeling The Heat?"
(56:36) Is It Time To Go Long, Or Time To Go Short, Or Time To Go Fishing?
(59:56) The Macro Compass
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso (“Alf”) Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and host of The Macro Trading Floor, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he is starting to like bonds at this point in the business cycle. Alf and Jack discuss inflation, the labor market, the Fed hiking cycle, “higher for longer,” the housing market, the earnings cycle, and how all of these factors affect the future performance of longer-duration Treasury bonds.

Filmed on March 2, 2023.

--

Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

The Macro Compass on Substack: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/

The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/

--

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:

https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

--

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

https://rb.gy/5weeyw

Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:16) Alf's Framework for 2023

(08:37) Bond Market Is NOT Currently Pricing A True "Higher For Longer"

(15:06) The Housing Market

(28:22) Recession in June 2023, Says Alf

(33:16) Permissionless plug

(34:19) Decoupling - Could Oil & Copper Rise Even As U.S. Enters Recession?

(38:55) Alf's View On Bonds & Stocks

(45:04) Is It Likely That Bonds Can Perform As The Fed Continues to Hike? (Jack's Question)

(48:35) Inflation

(52:29) Research Plug

(53:27) Are Consumers "Feeling The Heat?"

(56:36) Is It Time To Go Long, Or Time To Go Short, Or Time To Go Fishing?

(59:56) The Macro Compass

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.