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Danny Dayan: Reacceleration Risk Threatens Bond Market, Demographics In U.S. Are Inflationary (Not Deflationary)

Forward Guidance

English - February 13, 2024 18:18 - 1 hour - ★★★★★ - 199 ratings
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Previous Episode: Martin Pelletier & Joseph Wang on Stock Market Concentration, Cash-Futures Treasury Basis Trade, Structured Products, and New York Community Bank
Next Episode: The Rising Risks In The Private Credit Lending Bonanza | Andrzej Skiba

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/
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Follow Danny Dayan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DannyDayan5
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:29) Recession Is An Overrated Risk
(04:33) The Right-Tail Risk: Reaccelerating Inflation
(16:18) Will Stocks Continue to Outperform Bonds If Inflation Reaccelerates?
(21:25) VanEck Ad
(22:13) What Is The Neutral Rate Of Interest?
(29:22) Why Are Financial Conditions So Loose?
(44:59) "If Economy Stays Hot, I Think There Will Be Zero Rate Cuts This Year"
(47:22) Demographics Is Wildly Misunderstood
(01:01:20) China
(01:04:39) Duration Bubble of 2020 & 2021 Means Losses From Higher Rates Are Borne Not By Borrowers But By Lenders
(01:06:19) Danny's Bull Case For The Dollar
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/

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Follow Danny Dayan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DannyDayan5

Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

__

Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:29) Recession Is An Overrated Risk

(04:33) The Right-Tail Risk: Reaccelerating Inflation

(16:18) Will Stocks Continue to Outperform Bonds If Inflation Reaccelerates?

(21:25) VanEck Ad

(22:13) What Is The Neutral Rate Of Interest?

(29:22) Why Are Financial Conditions So Loose?

(44:59) "If Economy Stays Hot, I Think There Will Be Zero Rate Cuts This Year"

(47:22) Demographics Is Wildly Misunderstood

(01:01:20) China

(01:04:39) Duration Bubble of 2020 & 2021 Means Losses From Higher Rates Are Borne Not By Borrowers But By Lenders

(01:06:19) Danny's Bull Case For The Dollar

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


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