Episode 03 - San Diego's Choice

Welcome to Fantasy Football, in Theory, a brand new fantasy football podcast dedicated to high-level fantasy strategy in the abstract.

The 2007 San Diego Chargers were faced with a choice: part with one of the most successful coaches in NFL history, or with the hot GM who had figured out how to beat the NFL draft.

Today, we re-examine that choice with the benefit of hindsight. In our autopsy, we'll discuss John Bogle, Wyatt Earp, and definitely-not-Albert-Einstein. Our findings carry rather striking implications for our own desires to evaluate talent in fantasy football, and raise a question that strikes to the heart of the scouting profession...

... Can anyone beat the NFL draft?

If you want to read more on this topic, here are links to the articles referenced in this show.

The First Index Mutual Fund: A History of Vanguard Index Trust and the Vanguard Index Strategy, by John Bogle - http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/lib/sp19970401.html

Are Certain Teams Better at Drafting than Others? by Chase Stuart - http://www.footballperspective.com/are-certain-teams-better-at-drafting-than-others/

Cade Massey on Flipping Coins and the NFL Draft, by Brian Burke - http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2013/04/cade-massey-on-flipping-coins-and-nfl.html

Luck vs. Skill: Year-Over-Year NFL Draft Performance, by Steve Drake - http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/04/luck-vs-skill-nfl-draft-performance.html

Luck vs. Skill: Is Anyone Good at Picking Football Players? by Steve Drake - http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/05/luck-vs-skill-in-nfl-draft.html

Luck vs. Skill: Are Picks After Trading Up Better than Others? by Steve Drake - http://www.sportsplusnumbers.com/2013/05/luck-vs-skill-are-picks-after-trading.html

No Team Can Beat the Draft, by Neil Paine - http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

I've written in the past on the odd intersection between index funds and fantasy football, in a three part series on index investing in dynasty rookie drafts.

Part 1: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harstadindex101

Part 2: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harstadindex201

Part 3: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harstadindex301

If you enjoy my work, you can find it exclusively at www.footballguys.com. An archive of links to past articles of mine is also available at my blog, http://dynastytheory.blogspot.com/2014/08/a-link-to-all-my-writings.html.

If you have any other questions or comments, or you'd like to submit a topic for a future show, I can be reached via email at [email protected], or on Twitter at @AdamHarstad.

Thanks for listening!