And the Polls Say... It’s the end of the world as we know it…no matter who you vote for, you p

And the Polls Say...

It’s the end of the world as we know it…no matter who you vote for, you probably think it’ll be the end of the world if the other side wins. Which guarantees it’s the end of the world either way. But if SOMEHOW it’s not the end of the world on November 4th, or whatever day we find out who won the election, you might be wondering where the race stands. So I thought I’d explain it to you…quickly. Because that’s what I do.

After the final debate where most people felt that Trump helped himself and Biden did well too, the question was: did the race change? I’m going to explain some of the weird polls and share some important info on voting so stick with me. First, while the race has tightened a bit as expected, it’s remained fairly steady overall with Biden currently favored to win.

As I’m sure you’ve heard, because of the electoral college, our election hinges on a few key swing states. That means the vote is going to be close and therefore could “swing” either way. The main ones this year are Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina. Although there are other states that, based on polling averages could also be close, including Ohio, Georgia, Arizona and even Texas. Yes, Biden is polling well in Texas and the race is now considered a toss up. So much so that Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire who briefly ran for president, is spending millions of dollars in a last minute attempt to convince some additional voters to support Biden.

If you’re like me, each day you refresh your feed to see if any new polls have come out. And they’re coming! Some of them seem a bit ridiculous but if you remove those outliers, you’ll start to see a pretty clear picture of where things stand today. It’s the polling averages that tend to provide us with a more realistic picture. Remember, polls are a snapshot and reflection of where things stand but they’re no magic eight ball. Although those magic eight balls say things like “Cannot predict now” and “ask again later” so maybe they’re exactly like polls! Either way, both candidates have a pathway to victory.

Trump’s most definitely runs through Florida. If he loses to Biden in Florida, and we should know that on election night because Florida processes ballots as it receives them, he’ll lose the election. This is because there likely won’t be enough other states to make up for those 29 electoral college votes. Right now, the polls are showing the race virtually tied with a slight edge to Biden. But when polls are this close, it could swing either way. In North Carolina, the race is a dead heat as well.

In Pennsylvania, the race has tightened. Biden has a polling advantage of 3.8 percent in real clear politic’s average of polls. But that’s just in the margin of error meaning it could be close there too. Both candidates have spent quite a bit of time in Pennsylvania because of this.

Michigan is polling pretty steadily in Biden’s favor, up 8.6 on average. In Wisconsin, the average is 5 to 6 points. Please ignore the one poll that said he’s up 17 points. He’s not.

Now for those of you with PTSD from 2016 saying well, Hillary was ahead in the polls but she lost. So far, it looks like 2020 is going differently. First, the polling numbers were more volatile and though Hillary polled ahead in a lot of the states, Biden is polling ahead by a greater amount. In addition, data geniuses have studied not just state polls but district polls, which are even more detailed, to compare 2016 and 2020. Apparently in 2016, the district polls should have raised red flags for the Clinton campaign. And in the final week, the momentum was not shifting in her favor. This time, district polls are showing a fairly stable race with Biden ahead.

What does this mean? VOTE. Because it’s going to be close either way so this year more than ever, your vote really matters. But at this point, only vote early in person, drop off your ballot or vote in person on election day. DO NOT ma