No signals of imminent US labour market stress

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news we are in the shadow of tomorrow's US non-farm payrolls report which will give an important steer on where the world's largest economy is heading.

But there were some labour market indicators out today ahead of that report. First, jobless claims rose last week. However, this was the usual seasonal increase, but little more, and were basically at the same level as the same week a year ago.

Secondly, the Challenger job cut report noted a tiny rise in November from the tiny level a month ago. But these levels very much less than the same month a year ago. There is nothing here to suggest labour market stress is building.

In Japan, there are a series of subtle signals coming out that the Bank of Japan is about to end its negative interest rate policy. These moves are expected over the New Year period. That saw the yen rise.

Exports from China unexpectedly rose by +0.5% in November from the same month a year ago, after a -6.4% fall in the previous month and beating market forecasts of a -1.1% drop. It was their first increase in exports since April. But it isn't the gains that were expected and essentially dashes any hopes for an economic rebound in China. Among key trading partners, exports increased to the US (+7.3%) and Taiwan (+6.4%), while shrinking to Japan (-8.3%), South Korea (-3.6%), Australia (-9.1%), New Zealand (-15.2%), and the EU (-14.5%).

The spread of the dangerous respiratory infection illness in China seems to be bringing back their mobile "health code" apps - in at least two provinces so far, as officials struggle to contain it spreading nationwide.

Australian exports were -11.9% lower in October than the same month a year ago, down -0.4% from September.

But global freight rates for containerised cargoes rose +6% last week, no doubt due to the difficulties in traversing both the Suez and Panama canals. China to Europe rates rose +15% in a week, whereas China to the US West Coast actually fell. Meanwhile, bulk cargo rates peaked on Monday, but have eased marginally since.

The UST 10yr yield is unchanged from yesterday at 4.11% in a basic holding pattern.

The price of gold will start today just on US$2,020/oz and down -US$10 from yesterday.

Oil prices are staying down, unchanged from yesterday at just on US$69.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now at US$74/bbl. These are 5 month lows, and on an inflation-adjusted basis, decade-lows. It is fair to wonder if the OPEC cartel has lost its influence.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 61.7 USc and +10 bps firmer from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 93.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up fractionally to 57.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 70.6 and -10 bps lower from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$43,637 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.4%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.