Eyes on US jobs, NZ's too

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that jobs will be in focus this week.

In the week ahead, all eyes will be on the US Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday, followed closely by their April labour market report on Saturday (NZT). And that comes after our own local labour market report for March on Wednesday.

The US ISM PMI will come out this week (recalling the internationally benchmarked one has already showed a slowdown). And similar PMIs will come for China, Canada, and South Korea among others. The US JOLTs job openings data, foreign trade figures, factory orders, and Conference Board consumer confidence index are also due this week and any one could be market-moving if it steps out of range. And the US Q1 earnings reporting season reaches its peak this week.

Finally, we will get inflation updated for the EU, South Korea, Switzerland, Indonesia, and Turkey.

But first, a weekend data release showed profits earned by China's industrial firms rose by +4.3% in the first three months of 2024, much slower than a +10.2% jump in the prior period. But they actually fell in the month of March from the same month a year ago, down -3.5% suggesting their economy’s stronger-than-expected growth early this year might be tough to maintain. The latest result underlined that the government has struggled to get a recovery momentum amid a prolonged property downturn, persistently weak domestic demand, and lingering deflation risks. Profits in state-owned companies fell while those in the private sector sharply slowed on the three-month basis they like to use. But it is masking building near-term weakness.

And it is not only the Japanese who have a 'currency problem'. The recent volatility of the yuan, depressed profits and unexpected shifts in external demand are combining to make some Chinese exporters less sure about their business prospects – and more likely to park their cash assets in anything but the yuan. The yuan's value has recovered somewhat since October but exports haven't, and business holders of the CNY are sensing a potential official depreciation is imminent.

Markets are also sensing a new official rate cut is imminent in China, and Chinese government 10 year bond yields dropped sharply on Friday - before recovering just as sharply as officials stepped in.

And staying in China, there are reports that property market sentiment is improving, and that has property-based equities rose sharply on the Hong Kong stock exchange - on Friday, but oddly, not yet on the Shanghai exchange. One to watch.

And in a new stimulatory action, China is offering trade-in subsidies for new car buyers. ICE car owners can get a ¥10,000 subsidy (NZ$2325) to buy a new NEV, or they can get ¥7000 (NZ$1625) for a new ICE car with engines of 2 liters and smaller. The world's largest car market is about to get larger and have its profitability problems 'solved'. But this is bringing louder international calls for action to push back on "Chinese overcapacity'. This issue worries the EU and Japan a lot.

The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged on Friday, as expectations mount for central bank action to deter further selling of the embattled yen. From the no-change position the yen has continued to fall, primarily against the USD but even against the NZD. At Friday's 93.8 Yen to the NZD, that is now it's 'lowest' since May 1986, thirty-eight years ago. Against the USD, the yen has sunk to 158 to the USD, its 'lowest' since March 1986. Markets are betting that Tokyo is going to have to intervene very soon. While Japanese exports are suddenly much more competitive, a depreciation like this (-15% in the past year) could bring an inflationary shock with it.

Across the Pacific, the American PCE inflation index came in at 2.7% for the year to March, back to levels they last had in November. It has now risen, modest as it might seem to us, for the past three months. Their 'core' rate has held at 2.8%. The financial market takeaway is that American inflation is uncomfortably sticky and that the Federal Reserve is right to be cautious about signaling a cut in its benchmark policy rates. (Again, it seems the Fed has called this correctly, and market analysts got ahead of themselves.)

The same data shows American consumers spending normally with personal consumption spending +2.7% higher than a year ago while disposable personal incomes were only up +1.4%.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.66% and down -1 bp from Saturday. 

The price of gold will start today a little softer, down -US$3 from this time Saturday at US$2337/oz.

Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$83.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$88/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today marginally softer at just under 59.4 USc. But for last week it rose +½c. Against the Aussie we are softer at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are a unchanged at 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 69.2 and also little-changed from Saturday but up +40 bps for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,733 and down -0.5% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/- 1.2%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.