Economic Take
171 episodes - English - Latest episode: almost 2 years ago - ★★★★★ - 51 ratingsA weekly podcast dissecting the latest trends in the economy that businesses should know about, from trade dynamics to labor market fluctuations. All from JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking’s Head Economist, Jim Glassman.
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Episodes
A warming economic pot
July 05, 2022 21:43 - 11 minutes - 10.3 MBIn the final episode of this podcast, Jim takes a look back at 50 years of economic transformation—and offers optimism about what the future holds for the economy and markets. If you’re looking for more economic and market insights, subscribe to our weekly update or visit jpmorgan.com/cb. For your next podcast, consider the firm’s new “Making Sense” series.
The economic state of U.S. higher education
June 28, 2022 21:27 - 16 minutes - 15.3 MBJim sits down with Kerry Jessani, Head of Healthcare, Higher Education and Nonprofit Banking for Commercial Banking, to explore the ways the current economic outlook affects colleges and universities, and even how technology has transformed the student experience.
Three cheers for fiscal activism
June 21, 2022 10:00 - 8 minutes - 8.24 MBA sluggish recovery from economic crises worsens outcomes for the government, disrupts people’s lives and erodes wealth. After a century of dealing with economic cycles, American leaders implicitly now understand the costs and benefits of policy activism.
CPI: The newest news that isn’t
June 14, 2022 10:00 - 6 minutes - 5.52 MBThough it’s generating buzz, the May CPI report reflects the same patterns we’ve seen for months: that our inflation issues are supply-side problems and not a result of too much demand.
Reconciling contradictory stories about inflation
June 07, 2022 10:00 - 7 minutes - 6.75 MBIn the big picture, there are no signs the economy is overheated. But the evidence plain to see in certain sectors, likely a result of consumer shifts away from services and toward goods during the pandemic. Added together, the odds of a Fed-triggered recession are pretty slim.
Monetary conditions versus financial conditions
May 31, 2022 10:00 - 8 minutes - 7.66 MBAmong a shifting market landscape, the interplay between monetary and financial conditions can be likened to that of conductors and musicians—one sets the tone while the other responds.
Keep sight of the fundamentals
May 24, 2022 10:00 - 8 minutes - 7.6 MBStock market valuations have been high by historic norms, but is the standard way of valuing the stock market still applicable?
Nothing like the past
May 17, 2022 10:00 - 8 minutes - 7.82 MBToday’s Federal Reserve has a few tools at its disposal it didn’t have during the inflationary era of the 1970s: a game plan, time and flexibility.
Inflation and a more sober outlook on 2022
May 10, 2022 10:00 - 8 minutes - 8.17 MBDespite the talk of inflation, bond investors still seem to agree with the Fed’s initial instinct that many of the current price pressures will prove to be transitory. Also: Why globalism is still kicking.
No easy fix to our inflation conundrum
May 03, 2022 10:00 - 10 minutes - 9.45 MBThe Fed worked hard to prop up the economy during the pandemic. There’s no reason to assume its leaders are now willing to risk pushing the economy into a recession when long-term inflation expectations are still below 2%.
The consumer and globalization
April 26, 2022 13:49 - 9 minutes - 8.33 MBMany of us remember the price shocks of the 1970s, but there are not many parallels with that era in terms of the forces that currently drive inflation. Find more market, economic and business insights at jpmorgan.com/CB.
The excess demand narrative doesn’t fit the facts
April 19, 2022 10:00 - 9 minutes - 9 MBThere’s a widespread notion that the current spike in prices signals an overheated economy. But under close inspection, those details don’t add up. Find more market, economic and business insights at jpmorgan.com/CB.
An ode to the Fed’s 2% inflation target
April 12, 2022 16:42 - 10 minutes - 9.26 MBThe Fed’s activity now is a hallmark of its modern approach: Set investors’ expectations for steady, predictable long-term inflation — and avoid the temptation to hit the brakes. Find more market, economic and business insights at jpmorgan.com/CB.
Job growth is approaching a demographic cliff
April 05, 2022 10:00 - 10 minutes - 9.21 MBEmployment has grown by 887,000 monthly on average since April 2020 as the economy got back on its feet. Now that we’re back to pre-pandemic employment conditions, the pace of hiring will grind down very quickly. Find more market, economic and business insights at jpmorgan.com/CB.
Don’t fear the Fed
March 29, 2022 10:00 - 9 minutes - 8.68 MBWill the Fed’s game plan pull the rug from under the recovery? The roller-coaster ride over the past two years seems less influenced by the Fed and more by non-monetary factors. Find more market, economic and business insights at jpmorgan.com/CB.
A favorable forecast, no matter the chatter
March 22, 2022 10:00 - 7 minutes - 6.76 MBThe Fed said last week it expects growth to settle down to a trend-like pace and that unemployment will stabilize. What explains all the concern out there where the Fed sees no issue?
Sticker shock: What will come of it?
March 15, 2022 10:00 - 8 minutes - 8.22 MBWill the recent spike in gas prices and other commodities set back the post-pandemic economic recovery? There’s good reason to think we’ll be able to ride this one out.
Seasonal adjustments confused by two years of pandemic
March 08, 2022 11:00 - 7 minutes - 6.97 MBThe economic numbers we talk about are seasonally adjusted, smoothing out the natural ups and downs of a calendar year so we get a clearer picture. But since the pandemic, it’s getting tricker to tell what’s a standard seasonal swing or a COVID curveball.
Energy turmoil ahead: How will it affect the recovery?
March 01, 2022 11:00 - 10 minutes - 9.46 MBThe current geopolitical crisis will slow growth by a couple percentage points. But the drag caused by rising energy prices will be heaviest for regions of the globe that depend on imported fuel.
Who’s on first: Wages, prices, productivity or margins?
February 22, 2022 11:00 - 9 minutes - 9.1 MBConcerns that rising labor costs could be inflationary are misplaced because wages move in concert with other factors—many of them decades in the making.
Think of the Fed as a Foghorn
February 15, 2022 11:00 - 7 minutes - 6.98 MBThe Federal Reserve has clearly communicated its goals for months. So why hasn’t it changed course in the face of the latest inflation readings?
Moving the Goalposts On Employment
February 08, 2022 10:00 - 8 minutes - 7.86 MBA peculiar thing happened in January’s jobs report. The labor force grew by 1.4 million, but after an annual population adjustment, the labor force actually contracted. Why does BLS change the measurements, and how does that affect the way we look at trends?
Don’t Let the Fed’s Talk Give You Heartburn
February 01, 2022 10:00 - 7 minutes - 7.04 MBThe upcoming rise in interest rates has the markets unsettled. But the Federal Reserve’s plans are colored by a bullish view of the economy’s growth, not a hawkish outlook wary of an economic downturn.
Why An Interest Shift Won’t Scare Housing
January 25, 2022 10:00 - 10 minutes - 9.37 MBWith the Fed already starting to pull back from pandemic supports, interest rates are expected to climb in 2022. While that may dampen mortgages, enough other changes over the past few years should leave housing in a healthy place.
Inflation’s Most Useful Indicators
January 18, 2022 10:00 - 6 minutes - 5.59 MBWhen it comes to inflation, it takes two to tango—aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Comparing prices to the pre-pandemic world of 2019 tells a remarkably different story than a one-year lookback.
Business Leaders Feel Good About ’22
January 11, 2022 10:00 - 7 minutes - 7.16 MBIn our 2022 Business Leaders Outlook survey, we found that business leaders across the U.S. have a rosy view of the year ahead. While pandemic-driven challenges linger, they’re not really getting in the way of growth and profits.
A Round of Applause for 2021
December 21, 2021 10:00 - 9 minutes - 8.27 MBIt may not feel like it with the market trending down in the last month, but in 2021 we witnessed a remarkably fast economic recovery. And there’s good reason to be upbeat for 2022.
Why Car Sales Will Steer 2022’s Economic Growth
December 14, 2021 10:00 - 7 minutes - 6.74 MBThe economy is expected to grow steadily in 2022, but there are a few reasons that shouldn’t worsen current pricing pressures.
Underneath the Surface of the Jobs Numbers
December 07, 2021 10:00 - 7 minutes - 6.9 MBThe Fed’s ultimate goal of stable inflation requires aggregate demand to align with aggregate supply. That hinges on the supply of labor, and unemployment is the best measure of that alignment.
Looking for Blame in All the Wrong Places
November 30, 2021 10:00 - 9 minutes - 8.78 MBEven though we know the culprit behind inflation, we’re still susceptible to superstition. We tend to link inflation headlines with monetary and fiscal policy actions. Jim debunks a few popular misconceptions about recent Fed activity.
A Tailwind for the Travel Industry
November 23, 2021 10:00 - 5 minutes - 4.72 MBThe air travel industry never shut down during the pandemic, but it certainly felt the effects. Airline trends offer us fast insight into business travel and tourism patterns. As COVID-19 cases dip and passenger counts rise, it looks like smoother skies are ahead.
Asset Prices and the Fed
November 16, 2021 17:50 - 9 minutes - 8.31 MBThough the Federal Reserve keeps an eye on asset prices, it won’t set targets. That’s because mandates on inflation and employment mean the Fed’s plate is plenty full. Plus, a look at historical norms and why they may not apply to modern asset valuations. We want to hear from you! We’re looking to learn more about listeners of Economic Take to improve and evolve the podcast. jpmorgan.surveymonkey.com/r/economictake
Major Shifts in the Healthcare Sector
November 09, 2021 10:00 - 9 minutes - 9.06 MBJim is joined by J.P. Morgan healthcare expert Lauren Ruane to discuss trends in the healthcare sector and what’s changed in the pandemic. Key themes include how technology and innovation are shaping the sector’s future. Lauren also covers patients as savvy consumers, remote care and behavioral health taking center stage, and why the sector’s labor shortage is likely to intensify.
Why Aren’t Consumers Seeing the Same Thing That Businesses Are Seeing?
November 02, 2021 16:05 - 7 minutes - 7.23 MBThough they’re both climbing, price increases on materials are outpacing hikes on retail shelves. That’s partially because labor costs matter more when it comes to consumer prices. We want to hear from you! We’re looking to learn more about listeners of Economic Take to improve and evolve the podcast. jpmorgan.surveymonkey.com/r/economictake
The Fed’s New Inflation Mindset
October 26, 2021 14:56 - 8 minutes - 7.69 MBThe Fed is focusing on the average rate of inflation over time, rather than responding to current volatility and price pressures. Why is this change a big deal? It can help lessen policy uncertainty, and it sets a more reasonable standard to judge the central bank’s intentions. The change may also bring an end to the decline in the nominal interest rate levels that has weakened central banks’ policy tools. We want to hear from you! We’re looking to learn more about listeners of Economic Tak...
The Odd Dip In Consumer Sentiment
October 19, 2021 09:00 - 6 minutes - 5.66 MBConsumer sentiment is in a rut since this summer—and that can help us forecast future trends in the U.S. With some added historical perspective, consumers right now have it pretty good. We want to hear from you! We’re looking to learn more about listeners of Economic Take to improve and evolve the podcast. jpmorgan.surveymonkey.com/r/economictake
Foot’s Coming Off the Gas, But No Brakes Yet
October 12, 2021 09:00 - 8 minutes - 7.62 MBWhat we’re anticipating from the Fed for the next few years isn’t monetary tightening, but a gradual easing of monetary accommodation. And a few good reasons to downplay a slim September jobs report. We want to hear from you! We’re looking to learn more about listeners of Economic Take to improve and evolve the podcast. jpmorgan.surveymonkey.com/r/economictake
Reading into the Latest on Jobs, Rates and Rents
October 05, 2021 09:00 - 6 minutes - 6.35 MBOctober’s jobs report and profit reports will tell us plenty about the momentum in the market. And a rise in mortgage rates from their pandemic lows could be a boost for landlords. We want to hear from you! We’re looking to learn more about listeners of Economic Take to improve and evolve the podcast. It's just six short questions: jpmorgan.surveymonkey.com/r/economictake
The Fed’s Evolution, and Air Travel’s Indicators
September 28, 2021 09:00 - 7 minutes - 7.22 MBAs the economy rebounds, the Fed’s not budging — a clear sign of the Fed’s rethinking since a decade ago. Also, a look at why air travel numbers are a signal for the broader economy.
Blue Skies for the Multifamily Sector
September 21, 2021 09:00 - 7 minutes - 6.51 MBThis year’s surge in housing prices doesn’t have much in common with the crisis from a decade ago. Behind it is a positive change in household buying power driven by lower mortgage rates and higher incomes.
How Small Businesses Have Updated Their Playbook
September 14, 2021 09:00 - 9 minutes - 8.87 MBSmall businesses saw both the challenges and opportunities of economic upheaval the last year. Chase for Business joined the Economic Take podcast to unpack how the economy and labor shortages are impacting small businesses—and how entrepreneurs are adapting.
Why the Gap Between GDP and Jobs Matters
September 07, 2021 16:28 - 5 minutes - 4.63 MBGDP is back to pre-pandemic levels, the economy is still short millions of jobs and businesses are struggling to fill job openings. The gap between national output and employment could lead to a few different scenarios, and each one looks different for growth and Fed policy in the years ahead.
What’s Driving the Current Earnings Bonanza
August 31, 2021 09:00 - 7 minutes - 7.28 MBThe value of the U.S. stock market now is twice the size of the U.S. economy. What macroeconomic factors led to the market’s record highs, and what’s on the horizon?
A Lasting COVID Effect: Increased Labor Productivity
August 24, 2021 09:00 - 8 minutes - 7.51 MBBusinesses finally took a long-needed leap toward automation. (It was a global pandemic that provided the shove.)
What the Fed Tunes Out from Inflation Measurements, and Why
August 17, 2021 09:00 - 8 minutes - 7.5 MBBy focusing on the core and not the more volatile sectors like food and energy, the Fed gets a steadier look at the big economic picture. Still, economists are gravitating toward other gauges of inflation.
Two Areas Making the Bulk of the Jobs Shortfall
August 10, 2021 09:00 - 4 minutes - 4.47 MBEven with the economy rebounding, nonfarm employment is still several million below of its pre-pandemic mark. Schools and restaurants account for a big share, but signs point in the right direction.
Supply Chain Bottlenecks Are the Hangover After Hunkering Down
August 03, 2021 09:00 - 6 minutes - 5.78 MBThe second-quarter GDP report reveals the culprit behind inventory shortages: A rare divergence between final demand and production. Jim explains how the situation will probably ease.
“Transitory” Tells the Full Inflation Story
July 27, 2021 15:48 - 8 minutes - 7.51 MBInflation readings and price pressures all point toward pandemic bottlenecks. That’s why the Fed’s “transitory” explanation is the right idea.
Ready for the Challenge: Leaders Optimistic on Innovation
July 20, 2021 09:00 - 8 minutes - 7.6 MBA JPMorgan Chase survey of mid-sized businesses suggests leaders are confident as companies bounce back from the pandemic. They also give insight into how they navigated the last year, and, perhaps more importantly, how they plan to take on the next challenges and opportunities.
What’s Fueling Price Jumps at the Pump?
July 13, 2021 09:00 - 5 minutes - 5.39 MBWe’re moving around again, and that’s giving a lift to industries slowed by the pandemic. Jim explains how the energy and aviation sectors offer a glimpse at what’s ahead.