DRUNKENOMICS
227 episodes - English - Latest episode: 12 days ago -The drinking podcast with an economics problem.
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What is it, that you do here?
April 18, 2024 01:00 - 48 minutes - 67.5 MBSo...if you've been paying any attention to the markets lately, you might've noticed that there has been some major volatility lately. Most of this can probably be explained by the recent hawkish Fed posturing that took place back in the first week of the month. Though this outlook didn't come as a huge surprise to us, the bond markets seemed to be totally caught off guard as bond yields shot up; even in the high quality space. I guess it's a good time to pour ourselves a stiff one... Find ...
Other People's Money
April 04, 2024 06:12 - 53 minutes - 73.9 MBIt's pretty easy to have a robust economy and inflated housing market when the government deficit is still running rampant and has no real signs of slowing down. Additionally, core inflation has been revised upward, likely indicating that the Fed is slightly further away from their goal of taming inflation. But while we're here, cheers to the middle class. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay ...
Clawback Provisions Would Be Nice
March 21, 2024 03:37 - 42 minutes - 59.2 MBAnd not the corporate kind, but the kind as tax payers to the government. Anyways, more & more data is suggesting that the broader economy is resilient, giving the Fed no reason to lower rates (as we've seen today). However, as the debt maturity wall approaches, the Fed or Federal Government may be forced to take on other easing measures to mitigate some debt reinvestment risk from the maturity wall. Granted, any of their solutions usually always leads to more problems or higher taxes, which...
Fomo for Finance Bros
March 07, 2024 02:16 - 52 minutes - 73.1 MBAI Optimism has certainly led to some unusual price action in the stock markets. As a result, it seems as though the volatility skew has flipped on its head & shifted over to the call side of the options chain, driven by FOMO. But while we're still talking about AI, is this something that's even actionable? How long will it take to implement? And does it have the potential to wreck the consumer base? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop....
Revocable Antitrust
February 22, 2024 05:38 - 48 minutes - 45.1 MBThe Fab Four/Mag Seven, as we all know, has really spearheaded the recent strength and momentum in the major markets. But could there potentially be some risks or external factors that could potentially arrest their momentum? Well, of course there are; but on the other hand, they could also not ever come to fruition. Also, retail sales number for January are noteworthy; you get a chance to look at them yet? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspre...
Is this a good thing?
February 08, 2024 03:54 - 46 minutes - 53.2 MBSo...we've been on our good news bears train for a bit now; but with recent economic data released along with us all surviving the first Fed week of 2024, we may find ourselves back in a situation where good news is bad news. With numbers coming in strong, this leaves the Fed more room to be hawkish (which is what I meant at the 30min mark when I misspoke), meaning tightness around financial markets. Also happy almost S&P 5k. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: ...
Im-Maturity Wall
January 25, 2024 02:00 - 51 minutes - 70.6 MBAs we approach a unique business cycle where the economy is seemingly strong despite inflation pressures, the walls may seemingly be closing in as this giant debt maturity wall approaches. Economists believe this may compel the Fed to step in, but who says that's even within their job description. On the bright side, markets as a whole seem optimistic about the massive cash balance still left on the sidelines... Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.m...
New Year, New Whiskey
January 11, 2024 06:15 - 42 minutes - 59.4 MBWelcome to 2024 everyone, hope you all had a great holiday season! Because we have yet to see any sort of "landing" in 2023, hopefully we can see a good economic resolution and turning point in 2024. Either way, we're still on our good news bears train because why not. But with the bulk of cash uninvested on the sidelines along with the Federal reserve potentially cutting rates a few times this year, we could be ok. At least I hope so :) Find us on Twitter (X), Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKE...
Santa Claus Rally
December 22, 2023 02:06 - 45 minutes - 62.6 MBAnother December to remember thanks to this post Fed Santa Claus rally. However, tensions in the Middle East brewing could finally get us off our Good News Bears train. In any event, it's been a great year y'all! Loved drinking with you guys & we'll see you again in the new year! Cheers, Drunkenomics
Policymakers are Overrated
December 14, 2023 02:18 - 47 minutes - 65.5 MBWelcome to probably the last big week of the year in terms of economic data being reported. With CPI and another Fed meeting coming out this week, we decided to remain cheery as we head into our holiday season. All that being said, we remain in the camp that a lot of economic troubles are easing due to economic and consumer resilience; which means the Fed will most likely not waver in terms of their hawkish posturing. But, more to come as we head towards the last presentation of the year! Ch...
Good News Bears
December 07, 2023 04:57 - 43 minutes - 59.8 MBFirst off, hope you all had a great week off; also, we had to amend some things we said after a few drinks last episode. Something about IRA's being tax-sheltered. Anyways, with all the doom news going on, we had to provide some good news to talk people on the consumer level off the ledge. However, there are things to be concerned about. Although, for the most part, the economy is in pretty decent shape. So cheers to that. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: dru...
Social Insecurity
November 23, 2023 05:00 - 58 minutes - 80.5 MBIt's Thanksgiving already?? I guess with time flying so fast, we all could probably have a dram to retirement plans and ways we can make sure we're financially stable when we get to that point in our lives where we think about how time flew by so fast. Therefore, we had some gravy backs to the three pillars of retirement along with the current state of Social Security. No need to repeat this at the dinner table this week unless you really want to... Find us on Twitter (X), Instagram, & Face...
The Millennial Dilemma
November 16, 2023 04:18 - 48 minutes - 67.3 MBThere you have it; CPI came in slightly lower than expected, but Fed posturing still implores the economy to put up with a "higher for longer" environment. With that, a shower thought I had recently made me think about the millennial plight; being that we are by far the most indebted generation with not only our own debt to service, but also the debt of the extremely fiscally irresponsible federal government. And the interest expense on that will be other worldly. Find us on Twitter (X), I...
Delinquent
November 09, 2023 04:25 - 48 minutes - 67.4 MBHappy week after Fed week everyone! Hope you were all able to recover swiftly from your hangovers this last weekend because this US Government balance sheet is nothing but sobering. Upon viewing the Fed day interview with Jeff Gundlach on CNBC last week, it looks like the US consumer along with the US Government has a serious debt problem that a "higher for longer" attitude will only add fuel to the implosion. Not trying to call wolf...just saying... Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Faceboo...
Terminal Junkie
November 02, 2023 03:57 - 53 minutes - 73.6 MBWell, the Fed decision is out now; looks like the tone and stance of the Fed is still pretty hawkish pending some sort of major economic catastrophe. But the main question now becomes: when does the Fed their terminal rate? Also, when will the Fed officially begin lowering their effective rate? Seems like money managers all over the world are trying to get a pulse on this. That and the UAW strike. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.co...
Equities vs. Fixed Income
October 26, 2023 00:04 - 43 minutes - 59.6 MBWell...at the time this episode was being recorded, there was still a 'speakerless House.' Of course, in an uncharacteristic fashion, they managed to elect a speaker in Mike Johnson within a day of this being recorded; but congrats on getting something done finally. Most of our drams this week, however, was consumed to the discussion of which broad asset class might outperform in the next 12 months (not financial advice) given the headwinds and tailwinds we're seeing along with what the talk...
DC Clown Show
October 19, 2023 01:18 - 47 minutes - 66.2 MBI guess...having a 'speaker-less' house is pretty fun. It's at least funny to observe the kind of clown show we have at our nation's capitol. In case you missed it, Kevin McCarthy was ousted a couple weeks ago from his speakership position and Jim Jordan was the front-runner to fill the void. But somehow, even his political weight can't get him voted in. Then of course, we had a pretty solid inflation print that was spearheaded by rising energy prices. Let's see if the Fed will try to take m...
This One's For Israel
October 13, 2023 02:20 - 1 hour - 84.3 MBCPI data, Fed forecasts, Job Numbers, those are all important figures to pay attention to in terms of global macroeconomics, but it pales in comparison in total importance at times. In case you missed it, there was a very tragic war that broke out in Israel this weekend. Although there are some economic implications, it pales in comparison to the human cost taking place and the human right violations being executed by the terrorist organization that is Hamas. So pardon us for being a day lat...
Gin for the Win
October 05, 2023 04:05 - 53 minutes - 74.2 MBWelp...we've officially made it to the last quarter of the year; and what a year it's been. Because we're all awake now that September has ended, we can expect to see CPI data come in similar to the way energy stocks performed last month. If you were asleep for the month like Billie Joe of Green Day, I'll fill you in and let you know that energy, particularly oil, had quite a run; which means, I'm not feeling optimistic about inflation data. Also, happy trails Kevin McCarthy. Find us on Tw...
Absolutely Nothing
September 20, 2023 23:57 - 45 minutes - 62.3 MBAs the Fed President has mentioned in his presser today, the economy still has yet to see the affects of the tightening monetary policy from last year. Pair that with employment and inflation data that just came in, it shows that the Fed potentially still has room to enact further tightening. Granted, equities and especially fixed income markets are begging for some relief; which means this tug of war will probably result in absolutely nothing happening in Washington this week. Find us on T...
Why the 2% Obsession?
September 14, 2023 04:52 - 51 minutes - 71.6 MBI'm beating myself up for not coming up with the question earlier...but why is the Fed so obsessed the the 2% inflation rate? Historically, inflation has seen an average rate of about 4%. Granted, that does include some difficult cycles of price increases; but that accounted for, is that 2% target rate worth achieving even if it does crater the economy and wage growth? Also, what's this I hear about capital requirements going up? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Mer...
Just the TIPS
September 07, 2023 01:31 - 50 minutes - 70 MBIt seems like the weeks spend digesting the Jackson Hole Symposium turned out to be a real bummer. The Street pretty much decided to focus on the Fed's commitment to that 2% target inflation rate and could see plenty of hurdles we need to navigate to get there. Additionally, we also wanted to talk a little about Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities aka TIPS. It's kind of a foreign subject to some people in terms of how it works, so wanted to discuss how it fits in the world of floating r...
Jackson Hole in One
August 31, 2023 03:34 - 54 minutes - 75.6 MBWell so much for that market euphoria. A lot of market observationists were really expecting a Fed victory lap at the Jackson Hole symposium after CPI came in under the Fed Funds rate for multiple consecutive months. However, Jerome Powell expressed a much different sentiment, saying in his speech that their job is far from over and that they're still aiming for that 2% inflation target. Not the worst outcome given that no one's feeling good about the economy; however, not the best outcome s...
A Deflating Chinese Floatation Device?
August 17, 2023 03:03 - 50 minutes - 70.5 MBAs we continue to harp on China for producing less than promising economic data, we also need to observe some promising economic data here in the U.S. With CPI coming in at below 4%, the idea of a soft landing achieved is certainly not off the table. Granted, the idea of a looming rolling recession still hovers over this economic environment, but there's certainly less reason to be scared. However, across the Pacific; the narrative drastically different. China's economic numbers seem far les...
Interest is Weak
August 10, 2023 04:12 - 41 minutes - 58 MBSome very surprising economic data overseas came in earlier this week; but for sake of continuity, lets start with last week. Tech earnings coming in strong (for the most part) furthered echoed the resiliency of the U.S. consumer base. From there, JOLTS and non-farm payrolls came in weaker than expected giving way for the Fed to potentially pivot; combine that with credit card debt reaching all time highs, you might have a decent story as to why the U.S. consumer still has some fire power. L...
On the Downgrade
August 03, 2023 03:31 - 50 minutes - 69.9 MBIt finally happened (again). U.S. Government long term debt has been downgraded from AAA to AA+, meaning the ratings agency are at least suggesting some sort of default risk for U.S. Treasuries. In case you're thinking that it's a byproduct of aggressive interest rate hikes, Fitch cited poor governance, political polarization, and a spine chilling (my word choice) government deficit. On the bright side, AA+ bonds *historically* have a low chance of defaulting on coupon & principal payments; ...
Demand creates it's own Supply
July 27, 2023 05:05 - 50 minutes - 69.9 MBYeah...I know I flipped the classic quote from the brilliant French Economist, Jean-Baptiste Say; but in many cases, this is also true. When supply shocks in an economy take place, they offer producers or consumers the opportunity to take advantage of advantageous price points. However, those price levels eventually spearhead the return to a good price equilibrium. With Russian disrupting Ukrainian exports, we might get front row seats to another supply shock again. Also, happy Fed and tech ...
Damsel in Distress
July 20, 2023 05:24 - 59 minutes - 83 MBI know debt that is about to default (or is already in default) is certainly less attractive that a damsel, but it is certainly distressing. Which is why we decided to pour one out this week to the corporate bankruptcy surge we saw in the month of June. However, we did spend some time at the beginning answering some questions in our discord about various asset classes and unionization. Speaking of... Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop....
Standard and *not* Poor (apparently)
July 18, 2023 00:50 - 49 minutes - 68.9 MBSo the S&P almost breached 4500 last week and it's still hanging out around it's 52-week highs. On top of that, a lot of market 'experts' on CNBC and Bloomberg have suggested that the price action isn't euphoric and that there is substance to this kind of equity valuation. A lot of the optimism, however, doesn't seem to want to remove any blinders to the fact that the Fed is still in it's tightening cycle along with some major issues in the world's second largest economy: China. So in other ...
Head of Let Us
June 29, 2023 06:41 - 52 minutes - 73.1 MBIf you think you had a tough week, check out what happened in the UK. Nothing like an Inflation print that constantly and stubbornly surprises to the upside leading their central bank to declare a 50 bps emergency rate hike. Additionally, the Russian paramilitary organization, The Wagner Group has led a pretty solid resistance against their motherland. Although ironic, it does create some uncertainty within commodities and trading blocks. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOM...
What Even is a 'no-landing'?
June 22, 2023 04:32 - 51 minutes - 71.8 MBSo we're taking a trip across the Pacific this week and drinking Japanese whiskey to toast Antony Blinken's visit to China. With that, the presence of the U.S. Secretary of State to the People's Republic doesn't solve a lot of their issues; but there could be some optimism (hopefully) to come of this. Also, hope you all had a happy Fed day last Wednesday along with a very happy CPI day on Wednesday eve. The Fed deciding to pause hopefully garnered some optimism for your portfolio, although i...
Rolling Recession talks
June 15, 2023 00:03 - 52 minutes - 72 MBFrom a case study standpoint, we're fairly certain that economists are going to look back on this time frame 5 years from now and call 2022-2023 a long and shallow recession. Even if you turn on any financial news outlet now, you'll hear 'experts' saying that a 'recession' is really just hitting different parts of the economy at different times. Currently, manufacturing seems to be the one going through the ringer...and commercial real estate is seemingly next on the chopping block. At least...
The can has been kicked
June 08, 2023 05:01 - 55 minutes - 76.1 MBSo the Government has officially kicked the Debt Ceiling can two years down the road to 2025, which provides more significance to the Fed meeting next week. Conveniently, the next inflation print comes out the day before the rate decision is announced; so we have plenty of economic events to look forward to next week. Additionally, has anybody seen the most recent jobs/employment numbers?? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patre...
Data Dependency is Overrated
June 02, 2023 05:26 - 55 minutes - 76.7 MBWell at least we can now finally put the debt ceiling thing behind us. Who would've thought that the representatives that the good people of the United States would actually choose to compromise a few budget constraints over the alternative; which is complete economic catastrophe. Nonetheless, there are certain contingencies in the bill that might affect the economy moving forward and essentially could put us back in the same exact situation a few years down the road. But all this back & for...
There's a first time for everything
May 25, 2023 05:25 - 1 hour - 85.4 MBFirst off, I must apologize for all the tech issues in the last couple weeks. Seriously, I've missed you guys. But coming back in inglorious fashion, we have to split a bottle of scotch over the potential likelihood of a US Government default. Though there's still a very low chance that a default does happen, there's still a first time for everything. Odds are, they strike a deal at the 11th hour in true form. Lets talk about what happens if they do...then speculate on what happens if they d...
CPI & Headline Teaser
May 12, 2023 02:18 - 29 minutes - 41.2 MBSorry for the short & solo presentation...some of us were still recovering from a hangover. But we wanted to give a quick update post CPI and what the market outlook vibes are now that we have a seemingly positive real interest rate. More to come in the next week! Cheers, Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y’all!
Zombie McCarthy
April 27, 2023 05:43 - 51 minutes - 71.4 MBIt should be noted, that this is not an attempt to call Speaker McCarthy a zombie. However, we had to come up with somewhat of a title to combine the subject of a what a zombie company is along with the fact that the largest zombie company in the world might in fact be the U.S. government. Even then, the arbitrary debt ceiling has even stirred some worry that a U.S. government default might actually happen. And if you remember, the banking crisis is seemingly starting to show some real conta...
Still pending
April 20, 2023 06:32 - 58 minutes - 81.5 MBSeriously, when is it ever not pending...but it seems at though this current pending phase is starting to wear out it's welcome. CPI data came in promising, but retail sales slumping maybe suggests that we might have some weakness ahead. But all this data also might suggest that the Fed's policy might be working and that a soft landing might be within the cards. Also, happy Tax Day. I hope you filed on time or at least got an extension approved. Pretty hectic time of year I know... Find us ...
Stay in your lane
April 13, 2023 04:13 - 52 minutes - 72.9 MBAfter a refreshing holiday weekend, the BLS is now releasing a ton of important economic data that the Fed will no doubt overreact to. What economic data might you ask? Well for one, jobs data came out on Good Friday, CPI came out earlier today, and retail sales will be released on Friday. In the last couple years, the Fed has been known to try and solve every little forecasted problem without considering the repercussion of creating other ones. Take the supply chain issues, droughts, fixed ...
No Dice
April 06, 2023 04:50 - 55 minutes - 76.1 MBSo...OPEC+ in their infinite wisdom (actually lack thereof) recently made the 'brilliant' cartel decision to cut oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day. All the while, Saudi Arabia smoothed over tensions they had with Iran, courtesy of China, and speaking of China, they agreed to let Saudi Aramco buy into two of their largest oil refineries. Now, the notion of buying stake in China certainly does seem foolish, but this one comes with a rather unique twist. What might it be? Listen & f...
Have Your Cake and Eat it Too
March 30, 2023 06:10 - 46 minutes - 64.7 MBI guess the fruits of the Federal Reserve's labor is really coming to fruition. Because of this, they had to succumb to a 25 basis point rate hike to at least keep up the appearance of not completely falling on their sword. Additionally, SVB got bought by First Citizens on a sweetheart deal from the FDIC and the lack of interest in the SVB's assets. And cheers to Gamestop for posting a profitable quarter... Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspre...
Bank of Mattress
March 23, 2023 03:25 - 55 minutes - 76.8 MBI guess the main takeaway from this whole bank fallout out is that the Fed ended up only raising by 25 bps rather than the projected 50 bps by the bond market earlier this month. That and UBS and Credit Suisse are now the same company; which really was a long time coming one way or another. However, the overhanging paradox remains: on one hand, banks that make poor decisions deserve to fail; on the other hand, loss of faith in the overall banking system would be catastrophic for the overall ...
Better you than me
March 16, 2023 04:32 - 54 minutes - 75 MBI guess the cat got out of the bag and became the elephant in the room. As far as how that happened, Silicon Valley Bank had a balance sheet so ugly that the Motion Pictures Association would have to create a might need to create a new rating class for it. Like seriously, how can you have a portfolio duration that is so exposed to the interest rate hikes of the last two years. Now the question is how much contagion is there? Let's hope this doom loop doesn't get out of hand. Find us on Twit...
Vicious Doom Loop
March 09, 2023 03:58 - 49 minutes - 68.3 MBWelcome back everyone, hope you had a chance to recover from your accumulative hangover; and what a week to come back to. So far, we've had a Fed presser, a Beige Book release, and a JOLTS report. As expected, we received astoundingly hawkish tone from JPow and the markets reacted accordingly. Additionally, the Chinese doom loop seems look more and more vicious; which can lead to some severe economic implications...more to come. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merc...
Happy 3 Year Anny
February 24, 2023 05:31 - 48 minutes - 66.8 MBIn lieu of our 3-year anniversary episode, we decided to form some sort of market outlook for this year. Since we've started, inflation has gotten out of control, markets have been unbelievably volatile, and the Fed is now functioning more like a popularity contest rather than a central bank. However, the constant throughout this time has been the amazing taste of whiskey and the undeniable fulfillment we get when we share a dram with you all. Here's to three more. Cheers,
Meet the new boss
February 17, 2023 04:38 - 51 minutes - 71.7 MBJobs report, check. Inflation report, check. Retail sales, check. Three key pieces of economic data for the month of January came out over the past week and all of those signs point to a strong economy; meaning inflation has not cooled at all. Now, hindsight 20/20, the 25 bps hike last meeting now seems weak and cowardly. The contrarian view, however, is that government interest expense is pushing $1 trillion while personal credit card debt is also nearing that benchmark. Maybe it makes sens...
What News is Good News
February 09, 2023 05:39 - 52 minutes - 72.6 MBThe Jobs report on Friday proved that the Fed has a lot more room to tighten monetary policy even more. The only thing we now need to see is the CPI report that conveniently comes out on Valentines Day. Additionally, Lebanon felt the appropriate move for their country is to devalue their currency by 90%. Why would they do that? Well, pour yourself a dram and find out. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunken...
Chicken or Egg
February 03, 2023 05:31 - 43 minutes - 59.9 MBWell, 450 basis points later and the Fed has not been able to control inflation...especially in chicken/egg prices (although it would be cool if the Fed had a tool in their arsenal to increase chicken & egg supply). But in all seriousness, in the biggest earnings week of the first quarter, the markets also decided to get optimistic about a potential Fed pivot taking place before the end of the year. In other words, being "data-dependent" really means they have the ability to be totally flaky...
Petrogold has entered the chat
January 26, 2023 02:11 - 1 hour - 85.4 MBAs the entire world (including Saudi Arabia) gets to know China a little better, the prospects of the petroyuan taking over seems less and less likely. And that's even with all the trade partnerships in the works for China. Seriously, their municipalities are running low on cash, their real estate market is in shambles, and their leadership is seemingly oblivious to their economic deterioration. However, to throw another turd in the punchbowl, talks of the petrogold are starting to materiali...
BRIC by BRICS
January 20, 2023 02:31 - 49 minutes - 69.1 MBInflation print came in a lot cooler last week, which leaves some odd balls to believe the Fed's chance of navigating a soft landing has actually increased. However, if you actually examine the CPI basket of goods and see the drivers of inflation, the news really isn't that good. Better than last month, I'll admit; but still not good. Additionally, international trade agreements are starting to gain momentum as BRICS and the NDB are starting to attract suitors. Now the 'developed' world has ...