The Bear Market Cometh

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Technically, but for a moment on Friday, the S&P 500 entered a bear market. This according to the priestly record that marks the bull and bear runs of all market history. We now stand down ~19% from the peak in early January. Obviously, the superficial question heavy on our minds remains: is this the bottom? 

But more consequential is a broader mystery. How long will the Federal reserve remain hawkish, targeting the gremlins of inflation? Their resolve to see inflation tamed will dictate in the course of time how long this (now almost) bear market endures. For there can be no increase in asset prices without the easing that central banks provide.

A clue might be found in the trajectory of 10 year US treasury rates. Is it possible that bond rates have finally tested resistance, near the high in 2018? And what might that portend for equities?