Making Sense of a European War

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We live in strange times. With Russian armed forces bursting into Ukraine, uncertainty reigns. We see no better testimony than the bizarre behavior of markets and the market regime that governs it. The rational mind might think the specter of war would create panic in western financial markets.

Not so this past week. At least not yet. Why? Because, perversely, sentiment congealed around the idea that the Federal Reserve might now be forced to think twice about tightening financial conditions in the context of a geopolitical crisis. That's right. Nothing makes sense.  

The S&P is up on the week? Gold is up and then down? Bitcoin is down and then up? What does a person do?

As Carter Worth instructs, look to your charts. And if we do that, the technical breakdown in the S&P is still in effect. The question remains only this. How deep will the correction be?