Green Party numbers on Vancouver Island

Roy L Hales/Cortes Currents - The final count will not be finished for another three weeks. However as of 1:58 AM this morning, Elections BC reports that 45.03% of the known electorate voted NDP, 35.41% chose the Liberal and 15.30% the Greens. John Horgan won his majority, Michele Babchuk is our new MLA. and the only real surprise was the Green party numbers on Vancouver Island.

Sonia Furstenau and Adam Olsen have both been re-elected.

The Green party has also won its first seat on the Mainland: West Vancouver-Sea-to-Sky.

>>> North Island

Driving around Cortes Island recently, it’s not surprising to learn that there was a three race in North Island. We may lean further to the left than most of British Columbia, but every lawn sign I saw was Green. Alexandra Morton is currently in second place. As she is less than a hundred votes ahead of Liberal candidate Norm Facey, this could change, but it is also a pattern repeated in other eight Island ridings*, as well as Powell River-Sunshine Coast.

>>> The rest of Vancouver Island and Powell River

Nanaimo-North Cowichan, Chris Istace trails Doug Routley (NDP) by 1,001 votes.
Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Nicole Duncan trails Murray Rankin (NDP) by 1,647.
Victoria-Beacon Hill, Jenn Neilson trails Jenn Neilson (NDP) by 1,777.
Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Kim Darwin trails Nicholas Simons (NDP) by 2,166.
Victoria-Swan Lake, Annemieke Holthuis trails Rob Fleming (NDP) by 2,739
Esquimalt-Mtechsin, Andy MacKinnion trails Mitzi Dean (NDP) by 3,136
Nanaimo, Lia Versaevel trails Sheila Malcolmson (NDP) by 3,857.
Langford-Juan de Fuca, Gord Baird trails Premier John Horgan (NDP) by 3,887.
Mid Island-Pacific Rim, Evan Jolicoeur trails Josie Osbourne (NDP) by 4,537.

It seems unlikely that the Green Party will take any of these seats from the NDP after the final count, but the Liberal party finished second in most of these ridings in the 2017 provincial election.

This is not the first election where the Green party has shown promise. In the weeks prior to the last federal election, 338Canada’s projections showed them leading in four Vancouver Island ridings. This melted down to two on election day, which has been the pattern up until now. 1:54

This time, the numbers suggesting potential for a Green shift come from election results.

One of the questions on a recent Angus Reid poll was what would be your second choice? The Green Party was 20% ahead of second place NDP. (Greens 34%; NDP 14%; Liberals 10%; “Another party” 18%; Undecided 22%)

If there is a marked Green shift in the next election, or the one after that, most analysts expect it to be strongest on Vancouver Island.