Conversations with Commerce Trust

Fixed Income Opportunities in 2024

Given the current interest rate environment and historically high yields, fixed income markets may present opportunities for investors looking to diversify an investment portfolio. We discuss the fixed income opportunities we see in 2024 in a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, hosted by Chief Investment Officer David Hagee. Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

Technology's Impact on Equity Investing

Investors’ preference for technology has reshaped the S&P 500 Index, with technology-oriented stocks now comprising nearly 50% of the index’s weighting. With artificial intelligence (AI) poised to be the next revolutionary innovation, this segment looks likely to remain a key driver of performance in 2024.   Technology-oriented stocks, or companies with a heavy reliance on technology to drive growth, represent a range of companies that span across multiple sectors within the stock market. U...

How sustainable is the U.S. debt situation?

The U.S. national debt exceeded $34 trillion dollars, while the federal deficit was $1.7 trillion for fiscal year 2023. How sustainable are these fiscal imbalances, and what does this mean for investors? In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, Chief Investment Officer David Hagee, examines the U.S. debt load, the deficit and how it all translates to the broader financial markets with Brent Schowe, our Director of Investment Research at Commerce Trust.  Find all of...

The Economic and Market Outlook

Members of the Commerce Trust investment management team discuss our economic and market insights for 2024. Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

End-of-Year Investment Strategies

With 2023 winding down, now is an ideal time for investors to assess their wealth management plan. In the latest episode of Conversations with Commerce Trust, podcast host and Chief Investment Officer David Hagee is joined by Commerce Trust Directors of Portfolio Management Tara McConkey and Tim Michel, to discuss how recent economic and market activity could factor into year-end investment strategies for high-net-worth investors.  Read our companion piece on the importance of portfolio re...

Should investors be worried about rising geopolitical risks?

Rising geopolitical tensions are contributing to uneasiness around the world. Yet the markets have remained surprisingly calm. Why? In a new podcast episode hosted by Chief Investment Officer David Hagee, David and his guests Commerce Trust’s Scott Colbert, Chief Economist and Director of Fixed Income Management and KC Mathews, our Chief Market Strategist, examine market reaction to geopolitical crises. (You can subscribe to the podcast at Apple Podcasts, Spotify,  or Stitcher, get the RSS...

Can the Equity Markets Maintain this Current Run?

Global stock markets have experienced solid returns for much of 2023. What might investors see for the rest of the year? We examine the equity markets with Commerce Trust’s Chief Market Strategist, KC Mathews, in our latest episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, hosted by Chief Investment Officer David Hagee. Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

Women in Investing

Over the past 25 years, women’s attitudes on investing have evolved considerably. In a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, host and Chief Investment Officer David Hagee welcomes Cathy Arshadi, Director of Financial Management for Commerce Trust, to discuss the role of women in investing, including how women investors tend to outperform their male counterparts and where room for improvement remains. We also encourage you to check out our companion piece, which examin...

2023 Midyear Outlook

Will we or won’t we enter a recession in 2023? We share our economic and market forecasts for the rest of the year in a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast, hosted by Chief Investment Officer David Hagee. Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustcompany.com/research-and-insights/podcasts

What the yield curve inversion tells us

One of the most reliable indicators of economic forecasting is the yield curve. It is a perfect 10 for 10: every recession since 1955 has been preceded by an inversion. Currently the yields of the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bills have been inverted for 11 months. Is a recession looming in the near term, and if so, how severe will it be? We discuss the yield curve inversion in our latest episode of Conversations with Commerce Trust. We also encourage you to download our companion piece to th...

Is Commercial Real Estate on Shaky Ground?

Shifting economic conditions and a tightening lending environment are creating headwinds for the commercial real estate sector. These challenges include a growing number of property owner defaults, an overwhelming surplus of office space and nearly $150 billion in office leases set to mature over the next two years. Is commercial real estate on shaky ground? We discuss in a new episode of the Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast. Also, we invite you to download our companion commentar...

Banking and the Markets

Uncertainty stemming from turmoil in the global banking industry has shaken investor confidence. Is this a repeat of the Great Financial Crisis? We discuss the current situation in the banking sector, its impact on the financial markets and possible implications for the broader economy in this episode of Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast. You can read more from David Hagee on The banking crisis and its effect on the markets Find all of our Podcasts at: https://www.commercetrustco...

Why are investors shedding riskier assets?

In our latest Conversations with Commerce Trust podcast episode, David Hagee and Tara McConkey discuss the Federal Reserve’s 10-year run of easy money that led to the rise in popularity of certain highly speculative asset categories, including crypto, SPACs and NFTs, and how the Fed’s shift to a restrictive stance last year wreaked havoc on these riskier investments.  As a companion piece to the podcast, we offer a commentary on the possible future of the hotly debated and polarizing world ...

2023 Market Outlook

In our latest podcast, we revisit last year’s extraordinary market events and provide insights from the 2023 Economic Outlook on what could lie ahead in the world of investments for 2023.

The Municipal Bonds Market

Chief Investment Officer David Hagee discusses the municipal markets, looking at the tumultuous year that they've had and planning for investment opportunities with Brian Musielak, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management. 

Slobalization: The New Global Commerce

Chief Investment Officer David Hagee explores the evolution of global commerce known as “Slobalization,” and how technology, a manufacturing renaissance and regional trade networks are transforming the way the world does business.

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 8/3

After a disappointing first half of the year, the markets appear to be experiencing some resurgence. The S&P 500 Index, while still down for the year, has recouped nearly 40% of its losses from its low point in March. So, what’s behind this rally? In the latest Five Minutes with Scott Colbert, we delve into three factors we believe are driving this rebound.  Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with ...

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 7/21

The stock market’s performance in July has been relatively positive to date, which is a marked improvement from the first half of the year. This has many investors asking if we’re experiencing a calm before the storm, or the start of a material rebound. In this episode of Five Minutes with Scott Colbert, we outline three possible economic scenarios and how each could impact market performance for the rest of 2022. https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-721 Disclosu...

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 7/5

Financial market performance has been dismal so far in 2022. With the dog days of summer now upon us, what expectations should we have for the rest of the year? In the latest Five Minutes with Scott Colbert, we examine the current economic backdrop, opportunities for optimism and what it all means for investors. Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-depository investments offered in connection with Commerce Bank and its affiliates are not guarant...

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 5/25

The capital markets have been highly volatile for most of 2022, as investors come to grips with skyrocketing inflation, a suddenly hawkish Fed and geopolitical tensions. With such wild market activity, one of the most frequent questions we hear is, “When will we hit bottom?” In the latest Five Minutes with Scott Colbert, we list three things we’d like to see that could signal an end to the market drawdown.  Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a division of Commerce Bank. Generally, non-d...

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 5/4

In an effort to combat the worst inflation in 40 years, the Federal Reserve said it’s raising the federal funds rates by a half-point on May 4, and indicated more rate hikes could lie ahead. Do investors still need to worry about a recession? In our latest Five Minutes with Commerce Trust Chief Economist Scott Colbert, we examine into the Fed’s actions and look at several factors why we believe a severe downturn is not likely in the near term.  Disclosures: Commerce Trust Company is a divis...

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 4/8

Both equity and bond markets are showing declines for the year, as surging inflation and rising interest rates squeeze stock prices and impact portfolio returns. What reaction should investors expect from the Federal Reserve? In the latest edition of Five Minutes with Commerce Trust Chief Economist Scott Colbert, we examine what steps the Fed could take in attempting to find the elusive neutral rate, an interest rate level that neither spurs nor restricts economic growth.   Disclosures: Com...

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 3/17

In this segment of Five Minutes With Commerce Trust Company Chief Economist Scott Colbert, Scott dives into some pressing client portfolio questions, offering up much needed insight to the complex factors that will drive Federal Reserve policy on interest rate hikes slated for the balance of 2022.  Despite the global economic headwinds of the Russian-Ukraine war, Scott believes the Fed is back to the idea of seven interest rate hikes this year with a bias toward the high side to fight back U...

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 3/4

In this edition of 5 Minutes with Commerce Trust Chief Economist Scott Colbert, Scott reminds us that global markets have over time been confronted with many other geo-political crises similar to the current Russian-Ukraine conflict.  Indeed, stock markets had until this week relatively discounted the long-term impact of the Russian invasion, but near-term uncertainty seemingly prevails as commodity and energy prices have dramatically soared.  On one hand, recent robust job creation shows th...

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 2/18

It is hard to escape the news of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and this turmoil will continue to dominate the news as analysts try to sort through the potential impacts on people and the global economy.  In this edition of 5 Minutes with Commerce Trust Chief Economist Scott Colbert, Scott says it will be a challenge for anyone to handicap the potential outcomes of this fluid international drama.  Somewhat behind the scenes as this story unfolds is the concern that the Feder...

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 1/28

While there has been a lot of tumultuous financial market news to digest as of late, there is still a solid underpinning of economic news that bodes well overall for the year.  In this edition of “Five Minutes With Chief Economist Scott Colbert, CFA,” Scott explains why he thinks that recent volatility is a natural market correction in the midst of a broader economic expansion, and that's a lot different than a bear market that accompanies a recession. He expects to see the markets pull back...

2022 Outlook with Chief Economist Scott Colbert

Scott explains why he believes U.S. economic growth could still exceed 4% this year despite the headwinds from spiking inflation and the knock-on effects of stubborn supply chain disruptions during the pandemic.  Key drivers of Scott’s optimistic growth picture include the continued favorable impact of ultra-low interest rates, ongoing fiscal stimulus, and the seldom-discussed effect of excess savings that consumers currently have on the sidelines. By some measures, this built-up excess coul...

2022 Outlook with Chief Investment Strategist Joe Williams

2022 Outlook with Director of Fixed Income Trading Mike Cody

2022 Outlook with Director of Fixed Income Trading Mike Cody

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 11/29

News of the omicron variant is still having an impact as stock investors are feeling bearish symptoms again with futures trending downward. Yesterday’s Cyber Monday online sales experienced subdued activity levels as well. Uncertainty about the effectiveness of current vaccines on the new variant has the Federal Reserve reassessing its outlook, especially as it pertains to growth, jobs, and spiking inflation. In this edition of “5 Minutes With Scott Colbert,” Scott candidly discusses the mac...

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 11/12

How will consumers react to an inflation rate that hit a three-decade high last month? What impact will the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill have? See Commerce Trust Company Chief Economist Scott Colbert’s insights on these macro forces https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-1116

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 10/29

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has risen over 23% and company earnings reports continue to exceed expectations, but spiking inflation is holding back growth. See what Chief Economist Scott Colbert has to say about how the 4th quarter will unfold. https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-1029

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 10/1

In this edition of “Five Minutes With Scott Colbert, CFA,” Scott explains three wild cards in play that affect the economy in the near term:  1) When will the debt ceiling be extended; 2) How will China’s slowing growth affect the global economic picture; and 3) How “sticky” is the inflation spike and what will it do to interest rates?   https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-101

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 9/2/21

Heading into the Labor Day weekend, Chief Economist Scott Colbert takes a moment to review economic activity in August and highlights why we're still optimistic, despite a possible bumpy road in the near term, on our overall economic momentum going forward. https://info.commercetrustcompany.com/five-minutes-with-colbert-92

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 8/19

Earlier this week the stock market was up almost 20% on a year-to-date basis.  It has been driven upwards primarily on the back of an expanding economy, explosion in corporate earnings, and even a very, very positive recent employment report.  Since then, however,  it's clear that some storm clouds are brewing and we could experience periodic braking and a temporary slowdown.  Market observers are pulling back their outlook for growth somewhat in the second half of the year.  As Commerce Chi...

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 8/2

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 6/28

In this week’s “Five Minutes With Scott Colbert” video, Scott gives a glimpse at how the voting members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee develop their policy positions on evolving economic activity and exercise their influence on monetary policy-setting matters.  By focusing on the analysis of individual members in the course of the eight meetings the Central Bank conducts each year, Fed watchers can see the changing trends and shifts in the thinking of the overall body.  Will th...

2021 Midyear Outlook with Joe Williams

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 6/11

Scott takes the position that the inflation spike upon us right now is still transitory as the Federal Reserve believes, but it is going to take longer than anticipated to moderate, probably sometime next year.  So expect economic stories on this inflationary speed bump to be a regular occurrence in the media for quite a while.  We will likely not settle back into the comfortable 1% to 2% inflation rate range of the recent past, but rather establish a new norm of 2% to 3% in 2022.  

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 6/2

Today, in the latest edition of our video series, Chief Economist Scott Colbert covers why growth is the operative word in the U.S. economy at the moment – annualized GDP growth in the 8% range, something that hasn’t been seen in the United States since 1983.

5 Minutes with Scott Colbert 5/10

Commerce Trust Company Chief Economist Scott Colbert covers last week’s unanticipated miss in target U.S. employment numbers and the potential for growing inflation and global markets.

2021 Outlook with Director of Investment Strategy Joe Williams

2021 Outlook with Chief Economist Scott Colbert

2021 Outlook with Chief Economist Scott Colbert

2021 Outlook with Director of Investment Strategy Joe Williams

Director of Investment Strategy Joe Williams on the Midyear Outlook

Commerce Trust Company Director of Investment Strategy Joe Williams summarizes the wild ride equities have had so far this year.

Chief Economist Scott Colbert on the Midyear Outlook

Commerce Trust Company Chief Economist Scott Colbert predicts what the economic bounce-back looks like in terms of growth

Chief Economist Scott Colbert on the Midyear Outlook

Commerce Trust Company Chief Economist Scott Colbert predicts what the economic bounce-back looks like in terms of growth

Director of Investment Strategy Joe Williams on the Midyear Outlook

Commerce Trust Company Director of Investment Strategy Joe Williams summarizes the wild ride equities have had so far this year.