Predicting Russia

Does being a subject matter expert make you good at predicting events? This week, we delve into economist Tyler Cowen's blog on International Relations scholars and their views on Russia and Ukraine, and discuss international relations, analysis, and forecasting. We consider what makes for good analysis and the importance of having a sound methodology, diversity of thought, and understanding our own biases.

A few things we mentioned in this podcast:

- Tyler Cowen: How did the IR community get Russia/Ukraine so wrong? https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/05/how-did-the-ir-community-get-russia-ukraine-so-wrong.html
- Conversations with Tyler https://conversationswithtyler.com/
- The Good Judgement Project https://goodjudgment.com/
- Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? By Philip E Tetlock https://www.amazon.co.uk/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know/dp/0691128715
- No True Scotman fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman
- Cognitive Engineering: Hindsight Bias https://alephinsights.com/podcast/2021/08/hindsight
- Poll: Will Russia Invade Ukraine https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/31/poll-russia-ukraine-invasion-crisis-biden-response/

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Image by Tim Reckmann