China Global

Article 23: Implications for Hong Kong

When Hong Kong was handed over to China by the United Kingdom 1997, the city was given a mini-Constitution called the “Basic Law.” Article 23 of the Basic Law states that Hong Kong shall enact laws of its own to prohibit various national security offenses. The law did not pass, however, and was scrapped after mass protests in 2003. And in 2020, the Central Government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) imposed a separate national security law on Hong Kong, citing the city’s delay in acti...

Transatlantic Perspectives on China: Consensus and Divergence

In the past decade, policy toward China has hardened on both sides of the Atlantic. Governments and publics across Europe and in the United States view Xi Jinping as implementing more repressive policies domestically and more aggressive policies abroad. The US and most capitals in Europe see Beijing as seeking to revise the international order in ways that would be disadvantageous to democracies. They agree on the need for de-risking and to preserve the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.  Yet...

China's Diplomacy in the Israel-Hamas War and Red Sea Crisis

On a previous episode of the China Global Podcast, we discussed Beijing’s position on the conflict in Gaza during the early days following Hamas’ attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. Today, we discuss one of the conflict’s spillover effects– the attacks on cargo and trade ships transiting the Red Sea by the Houthis, an Iranian-backed Shia group governing parts of Yemen. While the Chinese-brokered rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran was as the beginning of a “wave of reconciliation” ...

Mapping China's Influence in Myanmar's Crisis

On February 1st 2021, the Tatmadaw, or Myanmar military began a coup d’etat against the democratically-elected government, which was led by the National League for Democracy (or NLD) just before elected officials from the November 2020 elections could be sworn in. Since then, Myanmar has been largely controlled by a military junta, who continue to struggle against multiple ethnically-aligned armies dispersed throughout the country. Some countries in the region have refused to recognize the j...

Flashpoints in the US-China Relationship

Many books about US-China strategic competition have been published in recent years. This episode will focus on Facing China: The Prospect for War and Peace, which examines various flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific that could result in military conflict. There are several reasons why this book stands out: First, it includes an examination of debates within China about China’s national interests; Second, it focuses not only on the challenges of major wars, but also on China’s gray-zone strateg...

China’s Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference: Implications for PRC Foreign Policy

On December 27 and 28, 2023, the Communist Party of China held the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs. This was the sixth such meeting – the first one was held way back in 1971. This Foreign Affairs Work Conference was the third held under Xi Jinping’s leadership, with earlier meetings held in 2014 and 2018. Xi delivered a major speech at the Work Conference, which marks the most comprehensive expression yet of his more activist approach to PRC diplomacy. The speech prov...

Beijing’s Response to Taiwan’s Election

On January 13, 2024, voters in Taiwan elected the DPP’s Lai Ching-te the next president of Taiwan. Lai won 40% of the votes–a plurality, but not a majority. In his acceptance speech, Lai pledged to safeguard Taiwan from continuing threats and intimidation from China. He also said that he has an important responsibility to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and reiterated a statement that the current president, Tsai Ing-wen, made 8 years ago: that he would act in accordance wit...

How Domestic Politics are Shaping US-China Relations

This episode covers the role of US and Chinese domestic politics in the US-China relationship. There are many drivers of US-China strategic competition, and domestic politics is among them, and has become increasingly important, though it has not been well researched and analyzed in recent years. One reason for the lack of analysis on Chinese politics is that since Xi Jinping became China’s top leader in 2012, domestic politics in China has become even more of black box than previously.  Bo...

Balancing Assurances and Threats in the Case of Taiwan: A conversation with Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen

This podcast episode is a joint and cross-over episode between the CSIS ChinaPower Podcast and the German Marshall Fund’s China Global Podcast. We are joined by Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen to discuss their recently released article titled “Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence.” The authors underline the article’s key point, that assurances, alongside threats, are an integral part of effective deterrence. They emphasize that in order for deterrence to work, ...

EU-China Relations on the Eve of the 24th Bilateral Summit

Early next month, the European Union and China are set to hold the 24th bilateral summit. The last EU-China summit was held via video conference in April 2022. It took place against the background of China’s countermeasures to EU sanctions on human rights, Chinese economic coercion and trade measures against the single market, and most importantly, Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine and Beijing’s unwillingness to condemn the invasion. Earlier this year, the European Council reaffir...

China’s Response to the Israel-Hamas War

On the morning of October 07, 2023, Hamas launched an unprovoked attack from the Gaza Strip, indiscriminately killing more than 1,400 Israeli and foreign nationals. Over 200 civilians, including women and children, were taken to Gaza as hostages. IN response to this attack, as well as subsequent attacks launched from Lebanon and Syria, Israel began an unprecedented bombing campaign of Gaza and targeted Hezbollah and Syrian government military positions. The conflict is unlikely to end soon a...

China’s Military Diplomacy and its Quest for Bases Abroad

On August 1, 2017, China official opened its first overseas military base in the East African nation of Djibouti. The base, constructed to provide logistical support to the Chinese navy’s counter-piracy mission off the coast of Somalia, marked a major step toward Xi Jinping’s goal of constructing a world class military by the middle of the century. The US Defense Department has just released its annual China Military Power Report, and that says that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) prob...

The Philippines-China Row Heats Up

On this episode of the China Global podcast, the relationship between the Philippines and China, and some of the flashpoints therein (especially in the maritime realm), will be discussed.  Since taking office in June 2022, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. has pursued a strategy of “being a friend to all and an enemy to none.” He has tried to maintain close economic ties with China, signing 14 cooperation agreements when he visited Beijing last January, including an updated Belt and...

Unpacking China’s New Standard Map

In late August, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources released its new “standard map,” which includes not only Taiwan, but also parts of the maritime zones of the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Indonesia, and Malaysia. It also includes land that China disputes with India—and even some Russian territory. To publicize the map and China’s claims, Beijing launched a “national map awareness publicity week,” as it has for map releases in recent years. China’s map release is an annual event, which c...

BRICS in China's Foreign Policy Agenda

In 2001, Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill coined the term “BRIC” to describe the fast-growing economies that he predicted would collectively dominate the global economy by 2050. The BRIC countries he was referring to were Brazil, Russia, India, and China. After a series of high-level meetings that included officials from the four countries, the BRIC grouping was founded in 2009. The following year, South Africa joined, and the name became “BRICS”. Last month, the fifteenth BRICS summit wa...

Shakeup in PLA Rocket Force

Earlier this summer, there was an unexpected shakeup in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force. Commander Li Yuchao was removed along with his deputy Liu Guangbin and a former deputy Zhang Zhenzhong. All three men are reportedly under investigation for disciplinary violations by the Central Military Commission’s anti-corruption unit. Xi Jinping appointed Wang Houbin, former deputy commander of the navy, as head of the Rocket Force, and Xu Xiesheng, from the air force as political co...

Centrality of Artificial Intelligence in US-China Competition

Technology is the focus of the intensifying competition between the United States and China, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) is at the core. China views AI as a means to gain a strategic advantage over the United States and its allies. It intends to use AI to build a world-class military. Beijing also views AI as an enabler of surveillance and repression that can help to bolster its illiberal model of governance. China’s national AI strategy calls for a vast expansion of AI in manufacturing...

China’s Role in Critical Mineral Supply Chains

Critical minerals are non-fuel minerals or mineral materials essential to the economic or national security of the U.S. They have no viable substitutes yet face a high risk of supply chain disruption. Critical minerals are used for many different purposes, including the production of advanced electronics, weapons systems, manufacturing equipment, and cutting-edge medical devices. They are indispensable for the transition to low-carbon energy sources. Last year, the U.S. Secretary of the Inte...

Interpreting China’s New Foreign Relations Law

Summary A new Foreign Relations Law took effect in China on July 1, 2023 that formalizes Chinese Communist Party leadership in all foreign policy matters. It puts China’s security and development interests and global rise at the center of its engagement with the world. The new law has been widely interpreted as providing a legal basis for Beijing’s struggle against what it says is a strategy of containment by the United States and its allies, and against foreign interference and sanctions, ...

US-China Relations Following Blinken’s Beijing Visit

Relations between the United States and China have slid to their lowest point since the 1970s. After President Biden and Xi Jinping met in November 2022, they instructed their senior officials to initiate a process to stabilize the relationship. Before much headway could be made, however, China sent a surveillance balloon to the west coast of the United States that ended up loitering over sensitive military sites and then flew across the entire country before being shot down by the US. Secre...

China's Unprofessional Intercept in the Taiwan Strait

On June 3, 2023, there was a near-collision between a US and a PRC destroyer in the Taiwan Strait. According to a statement issued by US Indo-Pacific Command, a US Navy destroyer, the USS Chung-Hoon, and a Canadian warship were conducting a routine south to north Taiwan Strait transit through waters where high seas freedoms of navigation and overflight apply. The Luyang III, a People’s Liberation Army destroyer, overtook the Chung-Hoon on her port side and crossed her bow at 150 yards. The U...

Evolving Switzerland-China Relations

[01:50] Switzerland’s Policy toward China Today [03:48] Changes in Swiss-Chinese Relations [06:03] Switzerland’s 2021 China Strategy [08:17] Areas of Economic Cooperation [11:05] Switzerland’s Relationship with Taiwan [14:45] Switzerland’s One China Policy [17:32] Contending with Human Rights Issues [18:55] Huawei’s Presence in Switzerland [20:56] China’s Influence in Switzerland [23:42] Forecast of Swiss-Chinese Relations

China's Rise in the Global Digital Space

Timestamps [01:30] Sinocentric Order in the Digital Sphere [06:51] China’s Digital Silk Road  [09:35] Global Rise of Chinese Digital Platforms [11:57] The Strength of Chinese Digital Platforms [14:04] The Digital Sector and Government Partnership [16:53] Dominance of Western Digital Platforms [19:08] Pros and Cons of Banning TikTok  [21:08] Chinese Crackdown of the Digital Sector [23:27] Looking Forward in the Digital Space

China's Role in Developing Country Debt Restructuring

Timestamps [02:01] China and International Bailout Activities [04:33] China and the G20 Common Framework [07:34] Debt Service Suspension Initiative [09:42] Definition of a “Haircut” in Finance [10:00] IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings [12:37] Beijing’s Demands for Write-Downs [16:18] Japan, India, and France Establishing a Creditors Committee [18:43] Chinese Participation in the Paris Club [22:08] Role of Geopolitical Competition in Debt Relief

China’s Industrial Policy and Semiconductors

Timestamps [02:14] China’s Implementation of Industrial Policy [05:20] Industrial Policy to Achieve Foreign Policy Objectives [08:02] Influence of Strategic Competition on Industrial Policy [10:42] Efficacy of Chinese Industrial Policies [14:17] Semiconductor Subsidies and Export Controls [19:06] Chinese Countermeasures to Export Controls [22:39] Assessment of U.S. Policy [25:58] Forecast of Competition on Advanced Technologies [29:50] Balance of Centralization and Adaptation

Decoding the Vocabulary of Chinese Foreign Policy

Time Stamps [01:39] Background of The Decoding China Dictionary [04:30] Democracy with Chinese Characteristics [06:34] Differing Interpretations of International Law [08:32] Freedom of Religion Versus Freedom of Religious Belief [10:28] Foreign Aid and China as a Developing Country [12:01] Security in Chinese Parlance [13:55] Transparency and its Uses in China [16:19] Historic Revisionism and Domestic Policy [18:39] Historic Revisionism and Foreign Policy [19:44] Promotion of Chine...

China's Role in the US Fentanyl Crisis

[02:10] Chinese Government Awareness of Illicit Domestic Narcotics [05:30] China’s Scheduling of Fentanyl in 2019 [06:40] Difference Between Scheduling and Banning [09:50] Lack of Cooperation Between China and Mexico  [14:18] Chinese Counternarcotics Cooperation in Southeast Asia [19:04] Possible Steps for China [22:56] A Looming Fentanyl Crisis in China? [25:43] Multilateral Approach to Counternarcotics

China and Australia

[02:16] The 14 Grievances [05:56] Canberra's New Rhetoric [07:54] Self-Censorship [11:12] Decision Making Tightrope [13:00] Darwin Port Lease [14:00] Foreign Investment Review Board [18:00] AUKUS Announcement in Washington [20:13] Australia and the Quad [23:19] Within the Albanese Government [27:05] Australia on Taiwan [31:21] America's China Policy

US-China Competition in Africa

[02:28] China’s Objectives & Success in Africa [06:02] China’s Political Model & Engaging Political Elites [12:27] China-Africa Support at the UN [14:47] Declining Chinese Investments [16:04] Public Opinion and US-Chinese Competition [22:19] Debt Strains on Relations [25:45] Chinese Propaganda in Africa 

Chinese Surveillance Balloon

[00:00] Topic and Guest Introduction [02:31] Information Collection Capabilities [07:25] Chinese Motivations [10:40] Reaction to Shot Down Balloon [13:59] Mil-Mil Dialogue [16:59] Leverage Over China [19:15] Guidance from Past Incidents [22:08] Risk Reduction Measures [24:47] Balloon Incident and Xi Jinping [27:32] Wartime Use of Balloons

China and North Korea

[01:59] Xi’s Relationship with Kim Jong-un [05:12] 1961 Treaty on Friendship [09:48] Chinese Economic Assistance [12:33] Impact of US-DPRK Negotiations [16:02] Sino-American Divergence on North Korea [21:05] A Seventh Nuclear Test [25:30] South Korean Nuclear Deterrence

China’s Shifting Foreign Policy

[1:42] Xi Jinping’s Public Diplomacy at the G20 Summit [4:30] Qin Gang’s New Approaches   [5:50] Internal & External Pressures on China’s Behavior? [9:59] China-Australia Relations [15:32] Allyship & Challenges in Southeast Asia   [18:27] US-China Relations [23:48] Indicators of Changes to China's Foreign Policy

China and the Middle East

[01:34] China’s Interests in the Middle East [03:25] Chinese Engagement During the Past Decade [05:54] Xi’s Trip to Saudi Arabia [08:22] Security and the Sino-Middle Eastern Relationships [11:05] Role of Multilateral Institutions [14:09] Perceptions of Huawei [18:12] Perceptions of Xinjiang [22:39] The Sino-Iranian Relationship [26:24] China’s Role in Conflicts

China’s Energy Security

[1:40] China’s Approach to Energy Security [4:45] Dependence on Russia’s Energy [14:08] Oil Partnerships with the Gulf [16:41] Decarbonization & Energy Security Goals [19:41] China’s Overseas Energy Investments  [22:23] US-China Energy & Climate Change Cooperation

China’s Role in the United Nations

[2:20] UN Significance & China’s Objectives [8:25] China’s Veto Power [11:17] UN Security Council Reform [13:53] China’s Funding Contributions [18:13] China’s Leadership in UN Agencies [25:21] Influence on WHO & COVID-19 [28:47] China’s Future Role in the UN

Olaf Scholz’s Trip to China

[01:26] Criticism of Scholz’s Trip [5:18] Scholz’s Trip Aspirations [8:40] German and European Perceptions of the trip [11:33] Xi Jinping’s Gains & Sino-German Relationship [13:20] Germany’s China Strategy [21:38] Germany’s Changing Taiwan Policy

The 20th Party Congress & China’s Foreign Policy

[1:41] Xi Jinping’s Political Report: Main Themes  [3:27] The International Environment and Implications [7:59] Taiwan [13:21] China’s Reform of the Global Governance System [16:23] The PLA and China’s Military Modernization [20:51] US-China Competition: Xi Jinping’s Approach Going Forward [23:48] Personnel Arrangements

China’s Influence on Global Media

[2:01] China’s Objectives in the Global Media Environment [5:22] Evolution of CCP’s Tactics, and Investments [8:22] Levels and Effectiveness of Chinese Media Influence [18:03] Approaches in Less/Non-Free Countries [20:02] Government, Civil Society, & Journalists’ Resilience [26:29] Erosion of Governance 

China, the SCO, and Central Asia

[2:21] Shanghai Five and the SCO  [6:22] Takeaways from Xi Jinping’s Visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan [10:16] Russia-China Dynamic in Central Asia [15:07] Public Attitudes Toward China [17:34] Xinjiang and Government Responses [19:08] China’s Approach to Central Asia’s Energy Resources [21:33] Turkey and Expanding SCO Membership

China’s Dominance in Global Supply Chains

[1:28] China's Dominance in Global Supply Chains [3:50] Role of China's Industrial Policy [9:08] Implications of Variables Affecting Supply Chains [13:37] US Policy Response and the CHIPS Act [20:36] Made in China 2025 [24:54] Economic Coercion, Vulnerabilities, and an Effective Response

The People’s Liberation Army: China’s Capabilities and Intentions in 2022

[1:38] Beijing's Goals and Signals [5:43] People’s Liberation Army and Advanced Planning [7:20] A New Normal? [11:44] Learning from the Recent Drills [13:58] China’s Interpretation of US Response [16:40] Mobilization, Confidence, and Capabilities [26:43] US Congress’ Taiwan Policy Act and China’s Reactions

China’s Global Security Initiative

[1:51] Beijing’s Objectives [5:43] China’s Vision for the International Order [8:49] GSI’s Relation to US-China Competition [10:45] "Meat and Bones" over Time [14:47] “Indivisible Security” [16:37] India and Others' Perspectives on GSI [21:27] Sino-Russian Alignment: Implications for China’s Global Security Governance Ambitions?  

China’s Relations with the Philippines under Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr.

Episode Highlights: [1:30] Duterte’s China Policy [4:36] Change under the New Marcos Government? [6:53] Philippines’ Relations with the United States [8:45] Public Opinion in the Philippines toward China [14:10] Joint China-Philippines Energy Exploration Talks [17:15] Railway Projects Loan Agreements with China [19:14] Future Developments

Banking on Beijing: The Aims and Impacts of China’s Overseas Development Program

China's Global Development Initiative

China’s Global Development Initiative (GDI) was launched by President Xi Jinping on September 21, 2021. In a speech at the General Debate of the 76th Session of the UN General Assembly, Xi stated that, in the face of the severe shocks of the coronavirus pandemic, the world needed to work together to steer global development toward a new stage of balanced, coordinated, and inclusive growth. The GDI was meant to achieve those objectives as well as the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainabl...

Lithuania: How Beijing Deals with Small States via Economic Pressure

Lithuania-China relations is an interesting case study for how Beijing deals with small states and how it applies economic pressure on target countries to change policies that it views as damaging to Chinese interests. Tensions in Lithuania-China relations arise from numerous sources, including the decision by Vilnius to withdraw from the 17+1 mechanism between China and Central and Eastern European countries and its agreement to allow Taiwan to establish a representative office in Vilnius un...

US Strategy toward China under the Biden Administration

On May 26, US Secretary of State Tony Blinken delivered a long-awaited speech on the Biden Administration’s approach to the People’s Republic of China. Separate from the speech itself, there is a China strategy document that remains classified. Blinken’s speech, which did not contain any surprises, introduced a new catchphrase for the Biden administration’s strategy toward China, the only country “with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplom...

China’s Relations with the Two Koreas

South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol formally began his five-year term on May 10, 2022. His predecessor, former president Moon Jae-in, attempted to strike a balance between ties with China and the United States during his term, but whether he was able to successfully advance South Korean interests is unclear. Concurrently, public attitude in South Korea toward China has continued to harden, as Yoon pledged to prioritize the country’s alliance with the United States. China’s relationship wit...

China-Solomon Islands Deal and PRC Interests in the Pacific Islands

On April 19, the PRC signed an agreement with the Solomon Islands that has prompted concerns in the United States, New Zealand, and Australia about growing Chinese influence that some worry could lead to a Chinese military presence in the Solomons. The Pacific Islands countries are scattered over a broad expanse of ocean and are widely seen as strategically significant. Yet, the region only receives episodic attention from the United States and other leading countries. Beijing has stepped up...

Implications of Ukraine War, US-China Competition, and Southeast Asia’s Role

In this episode, Bonnie Glaser hosts Singapore’s Ambassador Bilahari Kausikan to discuss several international trends and their strategic significances. They discuss the implications of the war in Ukraine for the global order, particularly the Indo-Pacific, the consequences of growing strategic alignment between China and Russia, the possible endgame of the US-China strategic competition, and Southeast Asia’s future.   Ambassador Kausikan is a former Ambassador-at-Large in Singapore’s Mini...