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Agent-based Models and Confirmation Theory
Center for Advanced Studies (CAS) Research Focus Reduction and Emergence (LMU)
English - December 13, 2014 16:15 - 48 minutes - 743 MB Video - ★★★★★ - 1 ratingPhilosophy Society & Culture scientific philosophy scientific theory agent-based models prospect theory intertheoretic relations physicalism non-reductive monism synthetic plasticity explanation physics Homepage Download Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed
Is it possible to develop a confirmation theory for agent-based models? The are good reasons to be skeptical: Classical confirmation theory explains how empirical evidence bears on the truth of hypotheses and theories, while agent-based models are almost always idealized and hence known to be false. Moreover, classical ideas about confirmation have been developed for relatively simple hypotheses, while even the simplest agent-based models have thousands of variables. Nevertheless, we can draw on ideas from confirmation theory in order to develop an account of agent-based model confirmation. Theorists can confirm hypotheses about model/world relations, and they can also use a variety of techniques to investigate the reliability of model results. This paper is an exploration of these possibilities. | Center for Advanced Studies & Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy: 13.12.2014 | Speaker: Michael Weisberg