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Chaos beyond the Butterfly Effect
Center for Advanced Studies (CAS) Research Focus Reduction and Emergence (LMU)
English - January 10, 2014 19:00 - 56 minutes - 857 MB VideoPhilosophy Society & Culture scientific philosophy scientific theory agent-based models prospect theory intertheoretic relations physicalism non-reductive monism synthetic plasticity explanation physics Homepage Download Apple Podcasts Google Podcasts Overcast Castro Pocket Casts RSS feed
The sensitive dependence on initial condition associated with chaotic models, the so-called "Butterfly Effect", imposes limitations on the models’ predictive power. These limitations have been widely recognized and extensively discussed. In this lecture, Roman Frigg will draw attention to an additional so far under-appreciated problem, namely structural model error (SME). If a nonlinear model has only the slightest SME, then its ability to generate useful prediction is lost. This puts us in a worse epistemic situation: while we can mitigate against the butterfly effect by making probabilistic predictions, this route is foreclosed in the case of SME. Roman Frigg will discuss in what way the description of problems affects actual modeling projects, in particular in the context of making predictions about the local effects of climate change. | Center for Advanced Studies & Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy: 10.01.2014 | Speaker: Dr. Roman Frigg