182. Reset & Attack

Investors,

I sent you all an email when bitcoin was down to around $47,000 signaling a good time to go all in. The price quickly hit a floor and has rebounded nicely. In my opinion, we are very far from a top in bitcoin.

History Repeating?

As of now, it is hard to know if we will get a cyclical top this time around. Meaning, bitcoin has a blow-off top and drops 70-80% with another 2-year bear market leading into the next halving. (This happened in 2017-2019 $20k - $3k)

The reason being is bitcoin is starting to hit mainstream adoption. We have greater than 60,000 new users coming online every day.

Bitcoin has gone from crazy to cool. A cultural shift is happening, probably the greatest one in human history. This is a bottom-up change as citizens find a store of value and exit the system. I pointed this out this morning as football players made the bold move to adopt bitcoin and take it as their salaries (Russel Okung was the first).

As bitcoin dropped, leverage was flushed from the system, coins went to stronger hands, and a full reset came. There were many similarities to the March 2020 crash. I can’t believe we get another buying opportunity like that again.

There was a point traders were getting paid to open long positions. Price is rallying, funding rates are low, and fear is still in the system making this a more sustainable rally.

Miners are still in accumulation paving the way for another leg up and coins continue to move off exchanges.

Longer-Term Price Targets

Preston Pysh has a great thread put together charting price averages of the different bull runs.

If that was the short-term bottom, we could be heading to $75-$90k in July before cooling off and then full send in September 2021. On-chain fundamentals look beautiful and far from this rallying being over.

Can You Admit It?

One of the hardest things to hear is the truth. Like a child calling a fat adult fat, it is true but unacceptable by society. A lot of people were wrong about bitcoin. They hear the truth every day and still refuse to accept it. You must strip ego aside and look to the future and not the past. As my short investing career has unfolded, I am grateful for my extreme desire to seek the truth and make mistakes. I have failed fast and because of this made more money than I could have ever dreamed of in my 20s. Money is just a natural side effect of curiosity and action.

It is okay to be wrong, but you must change your mind. The only way for you to make it over the next century is if you embrace bitcoin. If you don’t, like a smoking addict, one day it might kill you.

Have a great week,

-Molesy

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As a reminder, this is not financial advice. Do your own research. 

Nothing in this newsletter constitutes investment, accounting, tax, or legal advice or is a recommendation that you purchase, sell or hold any security or other investment or that you pursue any investment style or strategy.

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