Slight or low? Which is bigger? Understanding risk perception [Ep. 387]

Carolina Weather Group

English - November 04, 2021 01:00 - 30 minutes - 28.1 MB - ★★★★ - 15 ratings
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Previous Episode: Moderate to major coastal flooding in the forecast for the Charleston, SC metro area

Next Episode: A better way to classify hurricanes? [Ep. 388]

Do you know which has a greater chance of occurring: a low risk of thunderstorms, or a slight risk of tornadoes? The wording used to convene probability and risk across the weather enterprise is not standardized and thus not widely understood.

University of Oklahoma graduate students Emily Lenhardt and Rachael Cross discuss their findings from "How Likely is That Chance of Thunderstorms? A Study of How National Weather Service Forecast Offices Use Words of Estimative Probability and What They Mean to the Public," paperwork they co-wrote along with Makenzie Krocak, Joseph Ripberger, Sean Ernst, Carol Silva, and Hank Jenkins-Smith.

Their argument: No forecast is ever certain, as no meteorological phenomenon is guaranteed to occur. As such, the uncertainty in forecast information should be communicated in a way that makes sense to end-users.

The researchers examined nearly 9,000 tweets from National Weather Service offices across the United States. Their findings: Only 3 tweets accurately convened the true probability of the forecast.

The terms used in these tweets were "generally vague, unqualified notions of probability that may impede the public’s ability to interpret the information hat forecasters are trying to communicate."

Now the findings from this study are being used to improve forecast communications.