Stock Market Overvalued? – Stock Market Bubble and Inflation Google Searches Trending – Treasuries Worst Quarter Since?

Recently I looked up Google Trends to see how terms like inflation and stock market bubble were doing? They have been popular which means people are searching for them. Is this contrarian? How to play armchair stock market valuation game by looking at expected earnings. US Treasuries had the worst quarter performance since 1980 and third worst since 1830. GDP growth according to Goldman Sachs will be 8%. Is that inflationary?

Goldman Sachs says 2021 GDP growth will be 8%

Does this point to higher inflation or just a regaining of the previous trend?

US Treasuries issued in 1812 to fund the War of 1812.

US Treasuries performance worst since 1980 and third worst going back to 1830.

Share buybacks plus Dividends equal total return of capital to shareholders.

Estimating the intrinsic value of the stock market using earnings expectations

Google Trends highlight popularity of investment search terms like inflation and market bubble.

Real GDP accounts for inflation

Mentioned in this Episode:

Hussman article on the option value of cash due to market expectations https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201201/

Professor Aswath Damodaran S&P 500 valuation model using earnings estimates https://twitter.com/AswathDamodaran/status/1345461746622898176

Podcast episode where we talk about hedged equity and valuation timing https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/show/brokenpiechart/id/18495611

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

Contact Derek www.razorwealth.com