Put & Call Implied Volatility Mismatch? | US Dollar vs S&P 500 Correlation | Sticky Inflation | Japan Recession | Explaining Why Stocks Go Up (or down)

Broken Pie Chart

English - February 19, 2024 13:53 - 55 minutes - 50.5 MB - ★★★★★ - 16 ratings
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Previous Episode: Is the Forward PE Useless?| S&P 500 Election Seasonality | Gen Z vs. Gen X Special

Next Episode: Nvidia To the Moon | Implied Volatility and Earnings | Earnings and Markets Have Low Correlations? | Nvidia Cheap?

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, follow up on last week’s PE ration (useless?) discussion explaining how stocks go up or down based on earnings, multiples, and other factors. Then they delve into correlations between the US Dollar Index and the S&P 500 Index. Later, the surprising fact that as Japan’s Nikkei Index makes 35-year all-time highs they are in a technical recession. Finally, more evidence shows that inflation may be stickier and some that it may not. As always, they’ll have some recommendations!

Explaining how EPS earnings per share works

How the PE can change due to earnings going up or the multiple going up

How a stocks movement from one year to the next can be attributed to earnings and multiples

How the correlation between the US Dollar Index and the S&P 500 Index has flipped of late

Why a lower dollar helps large multinational companies earnings

Congratulations, Japan is making all-time highs while in a technical recession

What is a technical recession that everyone is now calling 2 quarters of negative GDP growth

Car insurance premiums rose another 20% year over year…inflationary?

How lagging price changes may continue to be sticky for inflation

Looking at how OER Owners Equivalent Rent has been trending lower

How higher rates may have put pricing pressure on rents

How market returns and earnings growth aren’t the same every year

Mentioned in this Episode:

Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills: 1928-2023 NYU Aswath Damodaran https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html

Previous Week’s Podcast:

Is the Forward PE Useless?| S&P 500 Election Seasonality | Gen Z vs. Gen X Special https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/is-the-forward-pe-useless-s-p-500-election/id1432836154?i=1000644953963

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Contact Derek [email protected]