Bonds: Why Past Returns Performance May Not Predict the Future

Broken Pie Chart

English - October 12, 2020 12:35 - 21 minutes - 19.8 MB - ★★★★★ - 16 ratings
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Rates jumped 30% in the US Treasury 5-year maturities this past week! Off course they only went from .25% to .33%, but why are some analysts on CNBC saying the next 10 years bonds may not return the same amount? What are the risks in bonds should interest rates rise? Do bonds offer a negative real return after inflation?

End of the Bull Market in Bonds?

Bonds sensitivity to interest rate changes

1970s and 1980s inflation effect on bonds total returns

The 60/40 portfolio in the future with low interest rates

Correlations between US Treasury Bonds and US Stocks

Historical interest rates 1694-2016 from Bank of England

How negative could interest rates go?

Coupon % on bonds as predictor of future annualized returns

Mentioned in this Episode:

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3iKpRcx

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/protected/adv/insights/guide-to-the-markets

CFA institute article on bond coupon rates as predictor for future returns https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2020/06/25/redefining-fixed-income/

Contact Derek www.razorwealth.com