The Most Important Level In The Markets Today

Episode Summary:

Major Internet Outages; Stocks In The Red - What Is Going On Today?This week's IPOs

Guests:

Matt Hammond, IPO Warriors 2:00

https://www.Ipowarriors.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/warrioripo

Christian Fromhertz, Founder of Tribeca Trading Group 42:00

https://www.tribecatradegroup.com/

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Unedited Transcript

so, uh, here, here's the market today, you can see it's mostly red with a couple of exceptions. Uh, my portfolio not doing too hot, but I'm not panicking at all. Uh, why don't you bring up, bring up your screen if you can, Matt. And, uh, do you have some IPOs this week? I know we got a couple of bigger ones, uh, tomorrow I believe, and I believe Thursday, a couple on my radar, but I want to know how your week was.

And uh, and then I would love to get your, your thoughts on what is to go to calendar this week. So, uh, I guess we'll start with last week's trays, right? Yeah. So last week I actually kind of sat on the sidelines cause there was a lot of unknowns and, um, general, if I'm not at least fairly confident that I'm going to be watching and taking them.

Uh, this has always been a bit of an evolution. The process has been certainly effective and very profitable for me, but one of the things I've learned is don't force yourself to make trades just because it's exciting and coming off a huge week, uh, the week before, uh, H L T H uh, about a week, you know, the Friday before last week was a huge win.

And I just have to kind of mentally check myself and say, Hey, you know, you have this tendency to take one big, win, feel invincible, and that start chasing everything. And sometimes it's hard to sit, think harder to sit things out when you're not sure after you've taken a big win. And then you kind of get yourself into trades that normally, maybe you would have seen that, that they weren't that exciting, but, um, there were some pretty good opportunities.

Only one, uh, well, two of them that turned out to be winners, but the only two that sort of looked good to me and they weren't phenomenally good plays and some of the more popular IPO's, weren't that great. I'm going to take a look at those as well. So I'm happy with my strategy for, uh, waiting out being patient, you know, buying the dip, uh, on other, you know, on other plays, but that gets tiring when the market doesn't rebound.

So, um, again, trying to say to myself, you know, what is the strategy for the next month or two? Well, I think things will come back, you know, some point in this month and rally into November and December. So just don't hurt yourself right now. Don't get yourself overextended. Put yourself into a margin call.

Don't do anything. That's going to wipe you out, play smart, play safe. And that goes from IPO trading as well. So the theme for this week is we saw a pretty big contrast in the debuts that were, we had direct listings and we had high float versus sort of low float. And as we've seen again and again and again, high float just doesn't translate into a good debut play.

I'm not saying it's a bad company. I'm not saying it's a bad time to take a starter position for a long hold, but I'm really about trying to play these for-profits in one to two days, maybe three days. Otherwise it turns into a bag holding position, and I'm just not going to go near anything that has a float over say 40 million shares because time and time again, we just see that that's too much supply and not enough demand and especially in a cold market where people aren't buying.

We're not seeing a ton of volume on the buy side in the market. That's not a good time to try to play. Against the trend that's, you know, that's been working for me. So, uh, the place that did work were amplitude was the first IPO of the week. And it was a direct listing. And for a direct listing, the float was like 35 million shares, which is pretty good.

Uh, it opened at $50 and pretty much went straight up. So this is the kind of play that I would have liked to be in the market was cold. It was a direct list thing. I just didn't have a great feel for it. And I wanted to play things a little bit patiently, so I missed it, but I, you know, in retrospect I might've played this at the market was stronger and, uh, you know, you miss some that's okay, but this is exactly what you're looking for.

You're in, at 50 spikes right up, you can take half your position out on the initial run. I would like to usually play this with a trailing stop loss. So, you know, maybe want to, you know, as it gets over 51, you set your stop loss at a base of 50 50. Uh, if it doesn't, you know, continue up, you get stopped out for what I would call a non loss, uh, slightly.

And if it does run you just, every time it breaks through a dollar, now you bring it up to bricks over 52, you bring your stop-loss up to 51. It breaks up to 52 50, maybe come up to 52. I mean, I love this kind of, I love being in this kind of trade because there's no heat. It's just straight up. And eventually we get stopped out probably maybe 54, 50, 3 50.

That's a good opening when take out half your position, you're already, you know, winning and you can kind of let it run for the rest of the day. What you're expecting or you're hoping for is one of these end of day kind of moves up and we've seen time and time again in the final minute, a spike and the spike I like to set, you know, I might, if I had been in this, I like to think that I would have set a, uh, limit order at say 54 95 or 55 95.

And let it get triggered on the, you know, in that closed right before the closing. This was a pretty solid stock going into the close. So if you have to hold it in after hours or day two. Okay. Um, but this was, I mean, I would love to have been in this play because this is exactly the kind of play that is very easy to trade.

Um, ex CNCF Shia Excentia Esai. Uh, I did take a play at this one. I got in on the debut and let it run up a little bit, but given those market conditions and that this is a little bit too similar to some of the other AI driven drug discovery platforms. I didn't want to take a loss. I didn't want to be sitting in anything, you know, so it opened a 27 15, once it moved up to about 27 50, I put my stop loss at 27 25 and ended up getting taken out right before it ran.

I'm okay with that. And then I didn't have a lot of conviction in this one. So I basically said, look, if it goes straight up, I'll be in it, but it doesn't, you know, I'm just going to get out and put my money, you know, take my money back. Tiny when you know nothing to cheer about, but he did stay in it. If you like the stock and you set either a trailing stop loss, maybe you got out at 29 or 28.

Nice little win. If you, the other, the other strategy here is to say, okay, well, stocks had open it. Or IPO was the debut at around 27, often peak at 29 or 30. Those are kind of the two resistance levels that we see. And you'll see this one hit resistance rate at 29, uh, off the first run and had enough power to actually push over 30.

So if you put your stop losses at 28 95, uh, 29 95, and I stopped losses limit orders, and those get taken out, you know, great. You've taken a nice little, two or $3 play. So again, this one gave you a nice, comfortable runner. Um, you know, you didn't want to be into it too long. Uh, didn't give you that end of day run.

A lot of times, what I look for is people look here on amplitude. It ha it peaked. And then. Held this like baseline, once it holds that baseline for a good hour or longer, that to me is a strong indication of a day two or end of day push. If it baselines, if it's not a flat baseline, it's more like choppy like this.

I'm not so confident about another day run. This is not, um, the kind of flat baseline that I like to see, even when a drop sometimes it'll, uh, baseline before run that baseline. That holds that to me is a good indication of an end of day run this kind of like up and down, up and down trading in a range, not as strong of an indication.

If you did hold a few. So half out here, uh, maybe you give it to maybe get taken out here. You know, you're had lots of opportunities to take products. And let it run. You've already taken a nice little win here, and you're going to get rich off this trade, but pocketing these little one to $3 trades. If you're trading with, you know, an and no matter what all, what your volume is, you're going to incrementally grow your, uh, your stash.

But for me, I'm a half positions, about 500 shares, a full position would be a thousand shares. So if you're taking, you know, 1, 2, 3 points off a thousand shares, you're putting two or $3,000 in your account and you stack up, you know, four or five of those in a month, and you've made a good little, uh, you know, a good little income, uh, first watch registrar group.

I said, I wasn't interested in this one. And I don't mind that I missed it. It did turn out to be the, like the best IPO of the week. Last week opened at 21 was a little rough out the gate, but the low float, this was like, I think I'm back in my notes. Uh, this was 9.4 million shares. So again, low float, you know, means a lot on this place.

If there's any kind of demand, not a lot of stuff going on in the market. People said, okay, well, low float IPO. I'll play it. And maybe for some people it's their favorite breakfast or lunch place. I've never heard of it, but, uh, it did go up. Maybe people were comparing it to Dutch brothers. I don't know. Um, but it did go up.

It gave you 10% when on day one, if you kind of nailed this peak or hit 23, again, that $2 move at debut to Tony one, I'm looking for 22 or 23 for a quick kind of like relatively easy win. Uh, if you did really believe in this and help through that day to run, uh, somehow it got media coverage or something overnight ran up to 25 46 this morning, which would be a 20% win.

It's a pretty hard play to make, especially, you know, for me, I don't know what this company. Nope. I don't know much about this company in terms of, I don't have any brand association to it. So not an easy one to catch on to some people probably do. And did well on it. And this was just a good example of a low float IPO that, you know, they're pretty well.

Um, and let me just, I want him to go over. Cause there were two high float IPOs that give us something to learn from why high float doesn't run. Um, for me, high float is 40 million shares or more. It has to be really, really strong to push more than 40 million shares, average floats about 30 million shares.

If it's a good company, a solid company with 30 million shares, I'll say great, play it. Uh, if it's a strong company, if it's kind of a strong niche-y company with 20 million shares, I'm more excited about it when they do anything under 10 million shares, I'm going to pay attention. If it's not like an obscure biotech, uh, there's a pretty good chance that you're going to, I would say a better chance than not that you're going to get an upward movement on, on demand.

If it's less than 5 million shares, it's almost a catalyst in itself because. IPO traders are like my 3 million shares happy to go down. Of course, sometimes they do, but more often than not, at some point you get a pop. So the reason is very fundamental, you know, supply and demand. If you have really high supply, you need even higher demand to make the price go up.

And so if you have a lower trading volume to the float ratio, then, um, you know, that's even worse. So you want the volume to be high compared to the float ratio. So if the float is 5 million shares, you don't need a lot of trade volume to make it go up. But if you have a really high float, you need a lot of volume.

I mean, D was such an obvious, uh, for the Chinese, it was 300 million shares. It was, I think they upped it to like 330, you know, and some of the, you know, celebrity pundits were out on, you know, NBC going, oh yeah, by all that you can. And I'm going no way. As you see it, the higher the flow with the harder it is to move this stuff.

Well, that's usually how it goes. And it's one of those it's almost self fulfilling. You knows IPO traders like me, look at that high float and go, nah, nah. You know, so that automatically takes out people who would otherwise try to flip it. And, and two examples we'll look at real quickly are Warby Parker and Ola Plex.

So we're B Parker got a lot of coverage, is that DTC direct to consumer eyewear. And there were seven point 77.7 million shares and it was a direct listing. So it opened, it opened up here at 54 11 kind of tried to like get gone. But you know, there's just so many shares and it just can't move up. It'll move down before it moves up and it kind of held its own move sideways, but you weren't going to make money on the street.

And if you didn't sell, you know, you're kind of stuck bag holding into day two. Now it's kind of come up and, you know, it's a direct listing. So we think, oh, the pricing's probably more fair to the retail trader than a direct listing. Uh, But it's still, it's a huge volume and a cold market. Maybe this goes up from here.

I would, if I had to guess, I would say, yeah, sure. Maybe a better chance that it goes up a little bit then down a little bit from here over the next weeks as the market returns and people go, oh yeah, Warby Parker is a solid business model. Um, but it's not an IPO play for me. Uh, all a Plex is interesting because this is a very solid company, uh, in terms of growth, something like 400%, uh, revenue growth and profit growth.

Forget which one that was, but, uh, was getting a lot of hype and social media. A lot of people are going, this one's a great company. I love their hair products. It's amazing. They, you know, their numbers are so much better than L'Oreal, which they are. Um, but at seven they upped it from 67 million shares to 73 million shares.

And that's just too much. I mean, there's just, no, you know, it actually managed to kind of swing here. And opened it at 25 and gave you a chance to kind of take, you had to be real quick with it. Um, but it did swing up to 26 50, but that was kind of the day traders in the hype traders who were trying to pump this and trying to get people excited about it.

I know that there were trading groups going, we're all buying all Applex who's in, you know, me, me. Yeah, let's do it. I'm like, yeah, but there's not how many of, how many of you are there? You know, there's not enough, there's more shares than there are buyers. So even with strong demand, there was more supply.

And we saw the effect of it just, you know, high float debuts, they just run out of steam. Uh, we saw this with things like, you know, Palentier on the initial day, went up from 10 to 11 plus, and then just, um, Uber 44, I think opened up 44, traded up to 45 and then down Coinbase was like, Ugh. You know, when I opened it, 3 85 went to four 30 and then just finish it.

3 55 or something. And then it was just down from there. So high flow, even if it's a hype name, even if there's a lot of brand recognition, high float, almost never works. I struggled to think of one that really worked well. So, um, to me, over 40 million shares, if it does go, you know, go up, I'm okay with missing it.

It doesn't fit the pattern that I'm looking for. I can't play with a lot of conviction to begin with. So, um, he'd have to be something really special, maybe a Stripe, uh, when they debut has 40 or 50 million shares, I'll say, okay, whatever, everybody's going to buy Stripe. But, um, you know, the most case, it's a red flag.

Okay. This week's IPO's, we'll just skip the list and jump into them. Uh, I fit health and fitness. This is the company that makes Nordic track pro form free motion weeder, and they have a subscription base and a workout content from home type of setup. So the obvious comp for this one is going to be, um, two pellets.

And even though Peloton is products, I'm not going to get into a, which is better, or why they're different. I, for the life of me have struggled to ever make an order track, make sense of an order track. Um, th th there is a, there was a article in the Washington author on Friday, just all about Peloton fatigue, right.

Everyone bought one. And now that I use it and that, you know, oh, they make a great gift, you know, and like new year's resolutions and Christmas, I'm sure people buy them and all that. But, um, no, I work out, I go to the gym and do my running. I, you know, I've had weights and stuff at home and I don't need to spend that kind of money to, uh, you know, to get active.

I don't know if it I'm sure it helps other people. They do have 6 million members and 1.5 million active subscribers, uh, you know, the revenue's up 104% gross profits up 120%. So. Maybe it doesn't matter what the people don't use them so much, unless subscriptions really are a bulk of your business. If people are buying them, that's great.

And they are pricing this IPO at a 43% discount to Peloton based on sales and an 82% discount based on EBITDA. So I think that, you know, as sort of a, uh, you know, getting to Peloton has been one of those hot, almost me mish stocks, and that sort of association with this kind of valuation makes me say, Hey, this could be one of those IPOs that does pretty well.

The floats standard 30 million shares. I will probably watch it to see how many people were talking about it. If they increase the float or increase the, you know, how high it debuts, uh, compared to the IPO price. But it does have that brand name recognition. It does have that chance for a day to immediate run.

And if the market starts to warm up a little bit, uh, you know, by the middle of the week, this is something that. I'll have my eye on and maybe take a half play or try to undercut the, uh, the debut bid and see if this gives us a chance to take a, to take a few points. So kind of like this one, don't love it.

Uh, healthcare triangle group, this was rescheduled from last week it's cloud and data management software for healthcare and life science organizations. We've covered a lot of IPO's that kind of sound like this. Uh, the revenues just 20 up 20%, uh, in the last six months, gross profit of 32%, which are good numbers, but not great for like a software IPO, not red, hot, not screaming.

Hey, you got to play this. And with an operating loss, negative net income, negative cashflow, those are sort of warning signs. We tend to like playing the ones that have either swinging towards or moving towards, uh, you know, positive numbers on these three. And you know, the only thing really going for this one is the low float.

You got 9.1 million shares. And that oftentimes is enough to get things going. So kind of have to watch this one, but I don't love it. And right now in this market, I'm sort of playing cautious rather than playing aggressively. So if I was being aggressive, maybe I like this one for this week. I don't know if I missed it again.

I'm okay with missing. I'd rather like really nail the winners and miss some of the okay ones. And once in a while, you're going to miss a winner and play something else. That's still a winner lifetime group holdings. Interestingly enough, we have another health fitness. Okay. How many of these can we, could we have, man, this is ridiculous.

Ridiculous. Now we are getting a lot of healthcare. We are getting a lot of fitness. There was barbecue grills, like a few weeks ago. It's cause they all, they all saw what happened at Peloton and they're all chasing. Yeah. And they probably also realize that now is the time. I think that some of this is like six months ago was the time where that now was the test six months ago is the time for them to begin the filing process, how they're getting to the market.

And they all push things back when things were cold and August. And I mean, more, the market was kind of cold in August and a lot of appeals got rescheduled, but this was a formerly a public company. They do. They're basically like high-end gyms and they own like 125 gyms around the states. And it got the, actually the insiders bought it out a 73% premium to take it private in 2015, uh, the numbers were starting to look even better in 2018, 2019, and then COVID hit and they got smashed.

And the only kind of angle that I can see to this one that makes it, you know, if I were to play devil's advocate and say, well, a lot of gyms went out of business and these guys held, held on and now they're raising a bunch of cats. So maybe there are the best position, Jim, you know, especially luxury gym for the reopening opportunity.

I don't know what they're going to have to do about people who bought two year memberships and couldn't go to the gym for six months if they're going to be reimbursing them or extending them for free, or just saying, well, you know, tough luck, you know, it's hard for us to, uh, the thing that makes this just not interesting for me is the 46 million shares.

That's kind of like could have just, and if not even bad, hi, it's me. Maybe it's major bugs. Well, here's my number. It's four 40 ha it has, let me put it this way. It has to be really a really compelling sell over 40 and high-end gyms. It was nuts, really compelling to me. Like, are you excited to go out and buy this?

No, no, no, not, not at all. Okay. Singulate um, improved drug delivery technology for ADHD treatments that are already approved. So they take, uh, treatments that are already approved for, you know, attention deficit disorder and, um, improve the delivery technology. I don't know, uh, 4 million, 4.6 million shares.

Maybe it's a low float target, but, uh, I don't know. I don't know. I think that ADHD, I dunno, almost people either taking inhaler, take a pill. W how much are you? You know, it's not like people inject this, right. So how much would I don't get it? Biotechs tend not to play. And this one doesn't sound particularly exciting to me.

Um, and I say the same thing for this one. Thesis pharmaceuticals, preclinical cancer focused on gastric cancer, 8.3 million shares. Um, pharmaceuticals. I mean, w we'll just touch on it really quickly. The reason that I generally won't touch them, is there a long way off, especially if they're preclinical from any major catalysts, a dilution is imminent as they, you know, hit targets and you're pretty much, they're very binary plays that take a long time to play out.

Uh, either they get approval and they go way up or they don't get approval and they go way down and you're waiting a long time, either way, uh, for them to go anywhere. And once they do go somewhere, they're probably going to do a follow on operating, you know, offering for the next level. And then you're sort of sitting there, you know, and I just don't see a lot of, I haven't had a lot of success with them.

And every once in a while, I'll talk myself into one. There are some this week that maybe I will, and sometimes they work out, but more often they don't. And then you're stuck in something with very low volume, tricky. I don't like them a Vulcan, this one's interesting electric power sports vehicles. We're talking electric, dirt, bikes and ATVs.

They're not street legal, which is one of the things they're kind of like, but they are like, they're, they're like for farms and for P for off-roading. And they've gotten a lot of press like a Barron's Newsweek, uh, like auto world. There was, I mean, their press section on their website. Their website is very basic, which I don't love, but it's not terrible.

Um, but they're like the really low price points. I mean, they have two versions, two electric dirt bikes right now. One is 8,001 is like 2,500 and have a pretty good range there. You know, they look pretty powerful and fast. I mean, they're kind of cool looking and the story might be good enough for 3 million shares to give a, give it a pop.

This is the kind of IPO that the IPO day traders and the trading group. Kind of key in on so 3 million shares is almost takes almost nothing for this to move up. So if it starts at a $5 or something like that and goes down at all and you add a little bit more or you start a position down there and then people start buzz, the social media, watch Twitter.

If people start talking about it, it's going to go up, it's going to have at least one spike. So I watched these because I've done really well on super low float. And this is a very low float, just 3 million shares and almost, almost all the super low flows that aren't even a lot of the biotech ones that aren't biotech, even easy fill, which was like that delivery gas, you know, guest system had a, you know, had a decent pop was one of the, I don't know, to me, it sounds like a really unprofitable business, but these guys do have, uh, you know, they are accepting payments for pre-orders, which is, you know, and, uh, you know, it was more than a lot of E V companies can say, so, uh, I know I like this one or I'll at least start a position on this one on the debut and see what it does, uh, but give myself some room for, for doubling down.

But these low float, interesting story debuts almost always have at least one, uh, kind of very fast spike in them. So as long as you're ready to take profits and not, don't get too greedy, uh, these types of places have worked out. I so plexus, ISL, this is a medical device manufacturer. It sounds pretty cool.

It's way over my head. Um, but a single cell analysis and it's used by the top 15 global biopharma companies based on revenue and nearly half of the comprehensive cancer centers in the U S so it is, you know, when we see these medical device, you know, we had that other one, uh, last week, it was, uh, that we called out.

It was, um,

Anyway, I don't want to forget which one it was, but we liked it and it did really well. And, uh, it, part of it is they have like consumables. They have, uh, the trays that they use, for example, for the testing are single use. So they have this kind of recurring revenue. Uh, the total addressable market is $34 billion.

Uh, revenue was up 103% the last six months gross profits up 112%. So they're good growth numbers, but they're offering operating profit is also expanding or is like the loss on their operating profits is also expanding. And it's pretty significant. So it's not without danger, but it is low float. And that's me adds up to something that could be pretty interesting.

I think I will, again, maybe take a half, but play, maybe undercut the debut. Not going to go too aggressively on this, but it is. It does sound strong, does sound interesting. And that often is enough when the float is just 8.3 million shares to give you a good opportunity to grab, um, you know, a 2.3 point win.

And, um, the one thing I would say is any kind of biotech play, I will not want to be holding onto it into today. Two, they just kind of get forgotten about volume dries up and you're sitting there, you know, just struggling to get out with a huge spread between the buyer and the ask. Um, you know, even the spread can be the difference between losing money or making money on the trade at any given time.

And I don't like that position cognition therapeutics, uh, this isn't Alzheimer's and macular degeneration drug. So they have compelling early stage trial trial results. And Alzheimer's has been one of the very few like cancer drugs are a dime, a dozen. They're just, there's nothing to differentiate them in most traders minds, but Alzheimer's, for some reason has been a really hot trend.

So you've got a promising early stage Alzheimer's drug with a low float. It's kind of like if I'm going to break my rule about playing biotechs, you know, especially pharmaceuticals, this has the pieces that I would be looking for. And it's really a question of, are other people talking about it or does this go under the radar?

No one else is talking about it. I don't know, but we saw things like our NAS a few weeks ago, which was a low float, something cancer related and it went on a couple of really strong runs, rebounds so low float Alzheimer's compelling, early stage trial results. That might be enough of a positive story for trading groups to buy in early, pump it and dump it.

So again, I play it. I won't hold it long. I will definitely not be holding anything in day two. And, uh, Pay attention to these because you will notice trends in the, um, you know, in the different IPOs, in the different market types. And there are some patterns with in biotech and pharma, even though as a group, I don't like them.

There are some things which would indicate, uh, when opportunity picks us oncology, preclinical novel antibody, conjugates for lung and breast cancer also discovers monoclonal antibodies. So that part is the interesting part, because anything COVID related like monoclonal antibodies has done well. Uh, they have licensed two proprietary, uh, product candidates from Pfizer, which kind of shows that there are playing with the big boys and the float is pretty low.

But, um, I dunno if monoclonal antibodies and the low float together will be enough. It's Friday. There's other plays that I might like better, but, uh, I want to watch this and just see what it does. I probably won't touch it. I think it might do well, but that's not. Reason for me to jump into it. Uh, there was one something a little bit kind of in the vein of things we've talked about before, and this is a little bit out of left field, but we talked for awhile about stealth IPO's, um, and stealth IPO's are these low float Spencer, you know what I'm talking about?

Right. I know exactly what you're talking about. We're talking WMW, UTME MIT, Q a fast forward a day or two later. And it's like the number one most traded stock. Exactly. Just these IPO's that you never heard of. They were purposefully under unpromoted some random Chinese company debuts at five or $6. And then all of a sudden is up at $30 and you're just like, what is this?

You know, what are they selling? And it's some random, like EJH was home cleaning services and they come back down, you know, almost as fast as they went. Um, but they do these random pumps, spikes, and all the investigation that I've done and everything that I've looked into on these has narrowed it down to a few possible answers.

And the most likely one is that they are scams to move money out of China, into Western markets. You got a much, you're a rich Chinese guy, you got a girl, you got a ton of money locked up in China. It's very difficult to move money from China to America, especially under this administration. But one of the ways you can do it is give a bunch of, you know, give a few million shares to your cousin in New York and, uh, just buy them, buy as many of them directly from him as you can.

And by pumping up the price, you can move a lot more money, a lot faster, and no one else is gonna buy, um, you know, uh, Chinese cleaning companies shares for $30. Uh, you know, Uh, so you're going to be able to buy a lot of them and move your money from your account in China, to your cousin's account in New York.

And these scams, you know, have taken on a number of different, uh, you know, iterations. And one of them was we saw towards the, you know, right before the Chinese locked down was that they were running up the price in the pre debut. So they priced the IPO at $5. I think JZ XN was kind of one that we really noticed.

It was priced at $5 in debuted at $45. And this wasn't like, there's nothing interesting about this company and the only person who would possibly pay that kind of money was somebody who was trying to move money from one side to the other. And, uh, you know, that flow, that opportunity got cut off when Chinese IPO has got stopped.

And so what did we see? We saw, uh, the underwriters, the main underwriters that we've seen doing these are boasted securities. Sutter financial, which is a sister company to boasted and network one financial, which has done, uh, you know, co underwritten, some of the same IPOs uses the same lawyers. So they all, you know, they kind of seem to be operating in a sort of a cabal.

Um, but if you remember a couple of weeks ago, we saw FCU V do an uplifting and FCU V was some kind of 5g chip thing. I didn't pick it up until afterwards, but you look on their website and you go to the team page and it's three Chinese, you know, doctors and, um, you know, or like, I don't know, electrical engineers or something.

Um, but you know, if I had made that connection and I said before we covered it on the show, cause it looked interesting because it was a boasts that underwriting, we said, keep an eye on us. Let's see what it does. And if I had made that connection to China beforehand, I would have been more aggressive in playing it.

But FCU V debuted, uh, you know, uplifted trades pretty much sideways the first day. And then on day two, went on a 500% run from about $6 to 25 to 25 plus and afterwards like, oh yeah, I mean, we knew something might happen, but something totally did happen. So after that I said, all right, I got to keep an eye on anything.

Boasted touches related to a Chinese company. My hypothesis is they're going to go back to one of their previous stealth, IPO park, uh, you know, partners and do some kind of followup offering or an uplifting. But I was looking specifically for a follow-up offering something that looks a little bit weird, some kind of totally random company.

And they're gonna do some kind of offering because they have clients in China that are debt more now, now more than ever desperate to get money out of the PRC and into the Western markets. And this is one way that I could see them doing it. So. Thursday last Friday, I got an alert saying boasted securities is doing a direct offering, uh, with P E T Z, which is some random Chinese pet food company that has a history of irrational runs this company when it did its IPO in 2017, going back and look at it, looking at, it looks like one of the original stealth IPO's IPO did about $5, $6.

And within a week was trading over $30, uh, and then came all the way back down. So, you know, clearly a, uh, you know, an unjustified run. And then in February of 2000, the February 17th, 2021, it spiked from about $2 to $3 the day before, and then ran up to 14 and then pulled all the way back down. Yeah. So. Uh, you look at it and it's done a few random spikes up, you know, it's generally traded between two or $3 and then randomly spiked over $4.

So this,

okay. Did we lose Matt? That would make sense. What's that? I'm here. I thought we lost you. I thought we lost you. W w it would make sense. Cause we were having all kinds of technical problems today, but we got you back. No, we did not get, Matt is frozen. All right. If Matt unfreezes all right. He owned it froze.

Alright. Nope. He froze again. All right, Matt, I'm going to say goodbye. I know you can finish your thought, but we got, we got, uh, our next guest here and yeah, the Grambling man, what can I say? The internet is run off like three different websites that make control that it's already anyway, I don't want to.

Okay. Matt had guys joint is every week. IPO warriors.com. Previewing. What is to come in the IPO calendar, offering history and ideas and how he will play it. I pick it up. I'll put the link up on the screen. Yeah, let's do that right now. Uh, BA there is IPO worries. Dot com. Check it out, Matt. Thanks a lot, man.

So I can kind of finish your thought, but while I talk to you again next week, uh, Hey, let's bring out our next game. Christian Fromm Hertz. He is one of the best follows on fin Twitter at the find it, uh, at I'll bring him out of here. Christian. Do we have you? We do. Hey, how's it going? It's one of those days, man.

One of those days. Oh man. Are you, are you seeing widespread outages? One second. I'm having a little bit of technical difficulty. I may have opened up a session twice, so I got some major echo here and I can't seem to get rid of. Okay. Fair enough. All right. Well, I'm going to keep talking, I guess, even though I don't hear that called ammonia and Christian, so up and now he's gone.

Yeah, it was funny. Like for a second, nobody else was able to get. To this stream like Christian couldn't get in Mitch, couldn't get in a bunch of guys here couldn't grow on. They couldn't get in. And those people are at least able to get into the stream now, but I was about to end, just end the show because nobody else could, if you weren't here, you couldn't join.

Alrighty. So it looks like that is okay. I mean, I see a Mitch's backstage, uh, just hanging out, looks like Christian was able to join, which means he will be able to join the gain. I, I would hope, uh, I hope we do get technical today. Neil is going to just hop on this stream. Probably. I hope we do get to have to go.

I hope we do moon or bust. Um, I hope we do at the close with Joel and I, uh, but I don't know, frankly, we're having all sorts of problems today. So wait of seeing something from, from, from Aero Thomas, uh,

Okay. Anyway. All right. You know what? Let's just go back to the markets. All right. It's fitting that we're having gremlins today of all days, because let's go to a, uh, uh, Benzinga pro here, but a big boom. Actually, no, let's just start with crypto. Okay. That you start with crypto. This is what I was sitting at the top of the hour when I thought I was live.

And I wasn't, I was talking to myself. I was saying at the time that I'm, I'm done with crypto as a hedge, I am tired of people saying crypto is, that's not a reason to own crypto, in my opinion right now, since, since I said that to myself, 45 minutes ago, Bitcoin has decided to go green today, but being a hedge for stocks.

He's not a reason. I think crypto, because more often than not Bitcoin Ethereum Cordato they do trade down on days when the stock market is lower. Why? I have no idea? Is that a window? I have no clue. And now that this being said, Bitcoin has turned it around for the moment we just spiked, at least in the future is up to 49 to 75.

Let's do a quick refresh here, here. You don't match. You want to come on and just Hank? Yeah. What the hell? What's up, man.

God turned the mic on there. There you go. No one else. No one else is able to get into the stream. It's just me and you. I don't know why. I think it was because it was my stream to begin with. Maybe I'm just it's snapped in me. Like I got it in real quick, but Hey. I have no idea. Anyway, uh, so my rant against Bitcoin as a hedge has been proved wrong from the moment cause it is green for the day.

Uh, but a theory from Carr Dano, Solano by Nicola, white corn, all down with this actually more your stock market. So crypto crypto being a hedge. Now there are many reasons to own Bitcoin and crypto. A hedge is not one of them and of soapbox. By the way, you can get $50 in Bitcoin for free. All you have to do is download the voyage wrap, fund your account with a hundred dollars.

Use the promo code SIG make you frustrated when you do that. $50 a Bitcoin for free in your account. That's like a 50% return just to start off. It is, it is uh, oh man. ATT outages, Google Facebook. It's horrible right now coming to, uh, uh, how's the overall market. How are we looking? Well, let's see, we are near the low of the day.

Let's go to some sharks. We are near the low of the day in everything in all the major indexes. Right. We'll go to the spa. W we'll we'll start there. I can't obstruct. It starts giving up. It's just died. Let's try it again. Let's refresh. Yes, it works. Okay. There you go. Okay. It's one, it's one of those days.

All right. Oh, wait Christian, are you back? I think Kristen's back. Let's see. Bring them on Christian, uh, back. Hey, ah, what a day? Well, so, so what happened was I had, uh, another session running in the background and it had like a delay of two or three seconds. So I was like, there's no way I'm going to be able to understand which one is correct.

So thanks guys. Bye. You know what it's it's you two, the only people that are able to join this stream for some reason, no one else is able to, I don't know what's going on, Christian. We got 800 allergies. We got stocks on the red. What is going on? Yeah, yeah. A little bit more volatility than, uh, then I was looking for, you know, coming into today.

So. Um, I don't know where you guys are at, but we can talk about the industry's first. That's a of the day let's start there. What's that? We're at the end of the day, the spawning of the QS, almost the Russell let's start with the indexes. All right. Let's let's uh, do that. I can share my screen. Right? Let me, at least we could still do that.

Let's get that gone. Sheriff's screen.

How we doing? Yes. I see you. All right. So, you know, unfortunately I, can, you, you guys got to have me on when it's a little bit better price action than this, unless you're super Barrett. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. I thought you love volatility. I, I do it's night. Um, just not days when you kind of come in a little bit with when you've got physicians, but it's great for day trading.

Unfortunately, I'm more of a swing trader. Got it, got it. Got it. Got it. All right. What we've got here is a chart of the S and P futures. Yeah. So tell us what you're seeing start with. Um, we'll start with just the daily chart and, you know, I was looking for 43 35 to hold. So now that this didn't hold for the day, uh, we've got, uh, we've got a mess on our hands.

Um, so what I kind of looked to next, um, knowing that we've broken that is, you know, how much more damage are we going to see here in the short term? And we don't really know that. Right. And, um, but what I do look for is some type of level where I can say, okay, um, if we hold this, it's, you know, we could possibly, you know, that that's one thing that's positive.

So we haven't been able to hold 42 92 either. So these are my levels that, um, unless this old, I want to be more defense. Um, we have not taken out the lows from last week and S and P futures, but we're, we're pretty darn close. So, you know, I think this is an area to be defensive in, um, NASDAQ of course, you know, which is, um, clearly seeing an unwind today.

I've got a level of the watch and NASDAQ futures down here at 14, 3 54. That's coming into play pretty pretty quickly. So for now, um, you got to try to like sit on your hands, or if you're, if you are getting into the market here, you know, I think it's best to, um, you know, to, to be, you know, using pretty tight stops.

Um, And then going from there and kind of watching to see how things, you know, um, settling, all that being said, Christian, it is paid to buy the last two or three or four depths at every well, every dip, but especially in the last couple of weeks and we we've actually gotten some dips. Right, right. And that's absolutely true.

Um, but I, you know, sometimes the dips are a little bit bigger than, than the normal dip and, you know, coming into this week, I thought, Hey, you know, same, same exact thing is, is what you just said, Hey, we've got. Um, we've got through September seasonality, which is a horrible month, you know, it's the worst month of seasonality, but October can be rough too, especially like parts of October.

If you look at the seasonality, which is again, it's just one factor, but from there, you know, once we have something like this, go on, right. We don't know if the dip is going to be, you know, clearly it's more than two or 3%, is it 5%? Is it 7%? Um, and then we, you kind of have to just, you know, understand your timeframe if you are buying the dip.

And if you're a shorter term trader, you know, you really want to make sure that that you're, that you're honoring your stops in this environment. Yeah. That's a really good question in the chat. Rich Kaiser, what happens when you run out of money, buying it with dips and it keeps dipping well, that's what you have to know your risk tolerance, right?

Uh, probably shouldn't always automatically buy it. Yeah. And that's the exact, you know, just as we kind of started with this question, you know, buying the dip has worked in the past, but you don't want to get yourself in a position where you're digging yourself out of a hole. Anytime that we've got a little bit of volatility.

And if you're, and if you're more of a long, only type trade. Then, um, you know, you really want to have that dry powder and make sure that every trade that you're taking in this environment, that you've got some stock price and that you're thinking things out, not just like, oh geez. You know, I got an opportunity.

We haven't had a, had a dip before. Um, you know, that's fine to have that mentality, but you have to have a plan in terms of, okay, well, what if we've got a bigger tip on our hands because let's face it, the three of us and everybody else, nobody knows how, how far or how deep the dip is. Um, we've had this nice muscle memory where, you know, most of the dips that we've had have been quite shallow, but there's certainly situations.

And I think if you just look back at what we saw last year, too, You know, we hadn't, we did go below the 50 day moving average, and we were kind of lucky here that we got back above, but it went back and forth, you know, and, and even though October is a better month in terms of seasonality, um, you could see what we did from 10 13 on, so you just have to be kind of open it and objective, objective to everything and, um, you know, to, to any possible outcome, you know, in this energy move right now, it was just kind of showing you where the money is going right now.

It's going into commodities. But the issue is that when you, when you look at the, at the S and P um, the growth and tech is such a larger weight in the S and P. So if they're going to be unwinding tech and growth as they are today, and as we started to see. As well, it's going to be more impactful because energy and I don't have the data up right this second, but I, you know, energy is less than 10% in the S and P and it's the largest weight, uh, as the tech is the largest weight in the S and P.

So these things are these. If it was one for one, then it would be one thing. But, um, it it's, it's not one for one, and growth is growth in tech or a much bigger portion of these indices. So that's where, um, whenever we have one of these growth unwinds, it becomes particularly painful. Uh, I'm glad that you brought that up, right?

Um, basically the reason that the broader indexes, the S and P 500, the spy didn't go down this summer was because this th th th the six largest technology stocks weren't going down right now. And I was going to ask you this, but I don't think it really matters though. Is, is it a question like, who is.

Leading your who here, or it just doesn't matter. You know what I mean? Like is, is other markets go down because tech is weak or is tech week? Is it the other way around or does that not make a difference? So sometimes it's both. Sometimes it can be, you know, and that's why, you know, making the point of, of tech being the largest weight in these indices is, is a little bit dangerous because once, if it could just be stat rotation out of tech and into some other places, it may, you know, there there's many traders that are just looking at the indices.

So that's just gonna, cause because of that weighting scheme, you're going to see that pressure in, in the indices and that's going to cause people to, to monitor those monitor those levels alone. And that could cause some selling in the outright indices. And um, and I think that's what we're seeing today as well.

Uh, question from do pray, do pre do pray and the Chad Christian, what are your thoughts on banks in the yields? Yeah. So, um, I, you know, I'm a, um, I have the position right now that I'm, I'm long banks, but it's, it's one of those situations to where, you know, you can't just say, okay, um, you know, there's a move out of tech and I think rates are gonna go higher.

You know, there's a lot of factors at play, right? I mean, right now we're getting to the point where if you look at what bonds were doing today, right. They were moving down up until, you know, so bonds moving down, rates are going up. That happened till nine 50. Well, once we have these concerns about China and since geopolitical issue.

Bonds kind of change. They kind of changed to be, maybe they might start to see a little bit of a flight to capital. So the worst thing is get, um, you might actually see bonds go up and then, you know, that kind of kills the whole pieces for the banks, you know, and going along the bank. So you can't, you have to be careful with that.

And, um, if they start, if things really start to get bad, you might see bonds catch a bay. Right. And, you know, for instance, you know, SIV B, which is a name that I've been in and out of, um, you know, you can see it's kind of slipping here too. It's down 2%. Um, because once things really start to kind of go bad, that sector rotation, um, can work pretty decently when the VIX is as around a 20 or under.

But once you see the VIX starts to spike up, as it is, today is 24. It's really tough to kind of play that sector rotation. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So you want to be mindful of like what the VIX is and, and, and how volatility is moving, because, uh, in that situation, banks, energy tech, once you start to really, you know, once volatility starts to really crank up, um, everything kind of starts to get ahead of it.

And so then the million dollar question is like, and I was like hesitant to even go here, but like, let's say we do get a prolonged period of at the very least sideways action at, or potentially more. Right. And I don't think that, but it could happen. And if that were to happen, then how would you position your.

Uh, ju just light, you know, I would really increase my, my cash balance. So, um, I do that from time to time, you know, when I start to see things and when some of the trades that I've got into, if they turn out to be wrong, I, I just take stops. Um, you know, and really honor what the market is doing. I see this whole.

I have ideas and things that like, you know, just like we talked about the financials, Hey, you know, the financial sources looking good, you know, they're showing relative strength versus the overall market. However, if that thesis fails, right. Price and trend are the number one for me, I'm not going to argue with the market, right.

Because if I argue with the market and X stubborn, what usually happens is I will have a bigger correction in my account and I don't want that. So I, you know, the main thing to kind of preserve here is your confidence and your P and L. So it's good to kind of keep those ideas, um, but make sure that you, you, you have those, those stock prices set, especially whenever you're entering a trade, whatever you're deciding what could be.

You know, the play that you're looking at, right? You have to have a stock price to say, this is where I'm going to be wrong. Because again, if we start to see the VIX right now, it's 24. We started to see the VIX crank up towards 27th with. You know, you're going to be, you're going to get yourself into trouble buying that dip.

Right. So, um, number one, above all else is to have a trading plan and an honor price, right? Because, um, you know, what's, what's the age old saying is that, you know, the markets can connect around. Longer than I can stay solvent. So when we're seeing that volatility, that should be in the back of your mind that this market is greater than any of my ideas, any of your ideas or any of, you know, any other expert that you see that's on TV or anywhere else?

Uh, for those watching, we are alive with Christian from hurt, his Twitter handles ad see from her, it's a highly, highly, highly recommend you follow him on Twitter. He's dropping knowledge there every day. Uh, we are trying to start, uh, get technical our next show if our host will ever get here. And if not, then I'm just gonna hang out.

Uh, Christian, we're hanging on for a few more minutes and I hang out with matron. Our, our guests we have is actually already here, uh, for the show. So our runner with hail, but, uh, it's one of those days I want, we're just gonna stay on. We've been on the streams since 11:00 AM. We're going to stay on the street because, uh, apparently there's some massive Amazon web services problems today.

Websites are having outages, uh, are self included. Uh, I, I saw ATT I saw Facebook. I saw Google. So yeah, maybe Wong, I don't know, Fastly on a day, like today, I dunno. Or Akamai or some internet infrastructure, but I don't, I don't know, but, uh, in all seriousness, uh, we are same story where near there we're at the low of the day, uh, it just off it in the desk deck, uh, fairly often at the spa, every sector, red, except for energy utilities.

Um, those days I gotta, I gotta agree with Christian about, uh, you know, the swing trading environment. It's been a little tough here. Uh, I got stopped at a couple swing trades myself. Uh, but that's what it's all about. I mean, at the end of the day, you got to set the plan and if the plan goes against you, this is not the time to try to apply and get into those bag, holding situations.

At least that's what I would, I would agree with also. You know, there's times in the environment where you're seeing stocks just rip. And last year it was a time where, you know, you bought any dip and pretty much came back. And then there's also, you've got to know that the market environment has changed since then.

And, uh, you know, one thing that I was always taught was that you can't always compare the, the, the way that things were to the way that things are right now. And I think right now you definitely need to have a little bit of case of being risk, adverse and pushing on the risk side, Christian. Um, I just had a thought, oh yeah, somebody else I wanted to bring up is like, people are going to be wondering or asking, why are we down?

Why are we down? Why are we down? I don't know why we're down. I don't know if you know why we're down. I don't know, but I don't think that, I think that's the point, right? Is we don't, it doesn't have to be. Yeah. I mean, and it, it, there doesn't have to be a reason. And you know, there, I see a couple things, you know, that, that, you know, a couple of headlines, right?

There's some more issues with China. There's another company that I've never heard of before. I think it was Fantasia or something like that. So it's the second to fault. So there's some contagion. I heard that. I thought that was a joke this morning. That wasn't a joke that, that I don't believe was a joke, but, but nevertheless, I mean, and then I think you have some geopolitical and political things that are going on, so it's kind of an excuse.

And, and the main thing is, um, you know, if you're watching price, um, it really depends on what the institutions are going to do. The institutions always drive the markets. So if they're going to lighten up, regardless of what the reason is, um, you have to honor it and like, so I have Tesla. So here, your Teslas are going to.

The crust, third, their deliveries. Um, and I I've tried to trade actually twice today and I just got stopped out. Um, the second time, because 7 86 is the level for me to try a trade. So when this happens and you know, this is important, um, because it's an important part of trading, right? Because, um, as I was just saying, like, number one, you know, I'm obviously a single stock trader and so forth, but you have to be a risk manager.

And I hear dentists say this a lot in the room too. And the pre-market session, you have to be a risk manager at the end of the day. That's what's most important. So what I usually do is my breakout point for Tesla. And I put out a video on this last night is 7 86. And then we can kind of concentrate on some things like eight 11, but, um, until this.

So, so as soon as I get stopped out of the trade, I don't get bumped out. Um, I just placed an alert about what, you know, where I care in the name again, and that's above 70. And I'm happy to try a trade again. Um, and sometimes pay, you know, paper cut losses. Um, they happen, right. But you know, paper cut losses or will keep me in the game essentially.

Right. If I stay into trades and they continue to break down, you know, that could really, um, you know, cause me some, some trouble down the line. Yeah. I think either way, this is a very interesting time because either, either a, we get days off, through all over again, repeated the last two weeks or B, we get our first real period of volatility, sustain volatility since March of last year.

Right. We've been straight up for a year and a half. Yeah. So, so we were doing, you know, if you, if you look back like a few weeks ago or a month ago, sometimes these things become a self fulfilling prophecy. Everybody starts to say, oh, well, we were due for a 5% correction when I start to see everybody quoting over and over, Hey, the last time that we had a 5% correction, it's been this long.

Sometimes it's, it's almost like people are wishing for it a little bit too much. And then the other thing that happens is when you do get the 5% correct. It's always, it's never like, oh, great. Let me deploy some capital and things will be fine because then you're worried about is the 5% correction going to be a 10%.

So you see that to okay. That right there, what Chris just said was one of the first hardware lessons that I ever learned. Uh, I basically spent the entirety of 2000 and, uh, what was it? 15 or six, kinda remember 15 or 16 being like, okay, I have some things I want to buy, but, but, but I want to wait. I want to wait because the market is just too high right now and I just, I'm gonna wait for a pullback first off the pullback.

Okay. Second, if it does come, who is to say that you are going to swing at the pitch because it is hard. It is hard to pull the trigger. When the mark is going down, it sounded easy when the market's going up, you oh, I'll just wait until a pullback dough or just buy the dip. It's never that easy. No, no dip is easy, never easy.

And so I, I think that this isn't 2015 and then so like a year later I was like, I was like, oh shoot. Like I just basically missed an entire year of gains. Cause I was like, oh, I'm going to wait until the market goes down. It didn't go down. Who was six years ago? Like, what was I waiting for? So that was a good lesson to learn.

Obviously that was, that was more for a longer term positions for me, but, but the, it still applies to training as well. Right. The targeted swing at the page where the market's going down. Right. So, so we mentioned like a couple of negative things, right. So I, you know, talking about, cause I know this is not fun.

When you talk about taking, you know, I just took a tough stop on Tesla, you know, being a risk manager and so forth. Right. That's not like the, um, the most exciting thing about, about today, but it's, it's, it is part of it's part of the process. And um, you know, it, it has kept me, I've been through a couple of these times this year, um, where, you know, you just have to kind of live to fight another day.

Now that's the negative part. The positive part is you really want to pay attention to what names are acting better. Right? I'd like to focus on relative strength. What names are starting to kind of like show their show that they're holding up better than others. Because every time we do see one of these things.

Right. You're going to F you're going to come across names that are going to hold up better than others. Oftentimes those are the leaders going forward. So that's, what's one of the most important things. And it's tough because, you know, on a day like this, where you've got a lot of areas going down, um, what, we got small caps down, I was looking for the small caps to shine a little bit today.

They're not doing it yet, but you know, it's a process. You gotta kind of wait, um, you know, be patient, but really what I'd like to find in on days like this is what areas are actually are holding up when everything else is going down. So that's kind of, um, you know, I've seen a couple of names that are, that are looking okay, but it's, it's really, um, going to be kind of towards the end of the day where you kind of, um, go through some of your standards, which I use a lot of skills.

Um, I use fin biz a lot too, and I kind of go through some of my watch list and say, Hey, which, which names actually didn't really go down much or actually were positive on it. That's where you're going to find your good traits going. Th that's a great point. And my first instinct was as well to look at the small caps, because those were the ones that got punished for the last six months while the market, while, while the broader SOP did, did nothing but go higher.

So maybe now that we have some tech weakness, it would stand that, that trend reverses. But you're saying that's not the case. I don't mean the IWF is, is outperforming today, but, but still with the red. So it's still not as good as it as it should be. So I'm looking for this. Um, as the market's moving, we got pretty close to take it.

This is a downside level that I'm watching and NASDAQ futures. We got pretty close to taking it out. Um, I would love to see this level be taken out 14, uh, 14, 3 54. Um, and we're starting to rebound a little bit, but, um, yeah, so we're, let's see if we can kind of build off this, this green candle and kind of take back, uh, was this 20, 20 period moving average on the five minutes?

Um, if not, if we can't kind of regroup and build off of this, then I'm yeah. I'm watching, I'm watching for this level to be taken out. So click, sometimes they get so close and they don't get taken out. Um, so we'll just kind of have to see what we build from here. Okay. Uh, Christian, I'll let you go in a second, but, uh, just what if it ever gets to the point and I'm not saying it well, but if it ever gets to the point in a lot of these stocks, would you lead on the COVID lows or is that a level where you got to kind of throw out?

Because it was so crazy which level the COVID blows for everything. I mean, I, I'm just, I know we're, we're very far away from that. Is that like a level of like, do you look at that at all? Or do you just throw that out the window? Cause there was no, I mean, it's, it's, that's what I mean, it's too far. So, you know, if, if we start to kind of, you know, depending on how we go today, You know, I will be probably like out of a lot of positions if we don't really get, you know, better today.

Um, then I'm not, I'm just not going to mess with a downward trend and trying to pick where we go down to. But yeah, I mean, that's, that's not an area that I want to see us go down to. I do think that we could possibly go down to 42 to eight, um, possibly down here to the 200 day moving average, but I don't really want to be holding a lot of positions in my trading account as we start to revisit these areas down here.

So, you know, for the day I'm looking for, I know, thrown out a lot of levels here and it, and I sometimes I, I do that want while I'm in the middle of a process here, but I want to see a stay above 42 92 for the day, if we don't. And if we take out the low from last week, I will be, I will be much more defensive, um, because I just don't want to mess with.

Um, you know, how far down are we going to go? I will be respecting price and, um, and, and being super disciplined, but the day's not over. So that was in the SMP futures that doesn't be features. I'm looking for 42 92. Um, so the level right here, um, for us to get back above, if we take out the lows from last week, which we have already, uh, not in futures for, for, for spy, we may have, but not in as, oh, really?

I see the toy from the 20th. I see. Yeah. Well, you just had 42 93, which were all, you'd be wrong. You've been on a closing basis. Yeah. So today's close. I want to see us get above 42 92. Okay. Because the always the most important thing is the close right. All right. So we can, we can breach areas it, you know, intraday, but I want to see us get reclaimed 42 92.

Um, that would get me a little bit more comfortable if we can't do that. Right. And we're kind of caught, let's say we, we close where we are here. This is not a great position to be in because we're kind of caught in the middle of last week's lows, which is right around 42, 67. And we're, and we're below this level, which is again, it's kind of no man's land.

Um, if we close below last week's lows, right then that, for me, that means get defensive, um, increase my cash, uh, position and, um, you know, take off some things, even though I've got individual names on. And, um, you know, I may decide to kind of trim some of those things, even though the stock hasn't been been reached there just to take a more defensive position.

So again, I'm not really trading the, the, the individual, um, sorry. I'm not really trading the indices that. But I'm really paying attention to that for important levels. Yeah. Kristen Frogmore has given us the one level that matters above all else. Last week, the wo and the S and P 500 futures, uh, Christopher reports can be found on Twitter at C from Hertz.

He's the founder of Tribeca trade group. Christian. Thanks a lot for coming on today, despite all the technical gaps. Absolutely guys. Pleasure. Thanks a lot, man. It's a Christian just said it and I mean, it's really, really, probably the most important day we've had for the market. That in quite some time this year, maybe arguably this year, I say this year, this year, I think that's a fair assessment.

Maybe I'm being a smidge over dramatic, but maybe I'm not. I mean, it's an important day for sure. I mean, we had a lot of good news on Friday. At least relatively good news for the market problem is there's, there's always good news or bad news. And so I always just throw it out the window, but, uh, Christians right over the last weeks, low critical, critical, critical.

I can, I can tell you if we, if we do have at the close today with Joel, that's the level he's watching right now. Uh, that's the level of levels right now. It's the level that everyone's watching is please hold Monday. Last Monday is closed. Please. Hold last Monday is closed or what? Okay. I have to hop off.

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