Behind The Idea
105 episodes - English - Latest episode: almost 4 years ago - ★★★★ - 74 ratingsOn Behind The Idea, Seeking Alpha editors Mike Taylor and Daniel Shvartsman take a closer look at an investment idea published on Seeking Alpha to see what makes for compelling investing analysis. We look at what’s happening with the underlying company, what the author’s case is, how well s/he made that case, and what we can learn from this investment story. We also bring on the authors, top investors, and industry analysts or experts to explore the case further. We hope the breakdowns and discussions are is both timely and evergreen, educational and entertaining for investors.
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Episodes
New Podcast Preview: A Positive Jam
July 15, 2020 11:00 - 3 minutesThe hosts of Behind the Idea - Mike Taylor and Daniel Shvartsman - are reuniting for a new podcast called A Positive Jam, that breaks down The Hold Steady's classic debut, Almost Killed Me. Check out our preview and watch for the release in August; subscribe wherever you get podcasts, including: Apple Podcasts Spotify Stitcher Podbean Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Behind The Idea #100: The Alphies 2.0
November 27, 2019 09:00 - 1 hourWe couldn't wait to get to our year-end review on Behind the Idea, so we're sharing it before your Thanksgiving week travel. It's our 100th episode, and the last episode of our Gone till November special series, a more introspective quartet of episodes. We also discuss on the podcast one other reason why we've released this early. Topics Covered 3:00 minute mark - The Alphies - categories 4:15 - Favorite guest 12:15 - Favorite story 27:00 - Most interesting idea 35:16 - Most surprising s...
Behind The Idea #99: Why I'm A Bad Investor
November 19, 2019 09:00 - 1 hourOver the last two weeks, Mike and Daniel have pitched respective long ideas. This week, we looked backward at mistakes we've made in our investing careers. The theory goes that your investing mistakes also amount to your investing tuition, and that true wisdom is learning from others' mistakes, rather than your own. I can only hope there's something for you as listeners to learn from our mistakes, as broken down on today's podcast. The investments in question date to 2016 and 2017. Mike went ...
Behind The Idea #98: Varian's Moat May Be Worth The Price
November 12, 2019 09:00 - 59 minutesWe continue our special November series. Mike shares his long thesis for Varian Medical Systems, an industry leader in oncology treatment devices that has a lot of attractive business aspects, though it's valuation is also challenging. Daniel tries to probe the thesis for any gaps, but the moat here seems quite strong. Topics Covered 5:00 minute mark - Introduction to Varian Medical Systems and the business case 12:40 - How much does it matter that there are two revenue lines in the income ...
Behind The Idea #97: Stitch Fix As A Growth Fit
November 05, 2019 09:00 - 1 hourWe kick off a special November series where we stop breaking down other people's ideas and try to dissect our own. Daniel shares his long idea on Stitch Fix, a fast-growing e-commerce clothing company that also will have to face a lot of competitors and skeptics as it tries to scale to profitability. Mike plays devil's advocate to interrogate the thesis. Topics Covered 3:30 minute mark - SFIX thesis 6:00 - What do you like about SFIX? 11:00 - Actual experience with Stitch Fix 20:00 - Busi...
Behind The Idea #96: Teladoc And The Modern Growth Story
October 29, 2019 08:00 - 46 minutesThere are three sorts of stories we've gravitated towards in the past 95 episodes of Behind the Idea: Value traps and/or value plays, the sorts of junk we might invest in. Examples: Cars.com (CARS), AT&T (T), Dell (DELL), Kelloggs (K) from the short side. Growth stories that break our value-oriented brains. Examples: Amazon (AMZN), Shopify (SHOP), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Lyft (LYFT), PagerDuty (PD) from the short side. Battleground stories or news stories. Examples: Boeing (BA), PG&E (PCG), Ch...
Behind The Idea #95: Smoking Out The Altria Bull Case W/Atlas Research
October 22, 2019 08:00 - 45 minutesOn this week’s Behind the Idea, we jump right into the long case for a beloved dividend company and notorious corporate name, Altria, ticker symbol MO. We speak with Atlas Research about his bull case for Altria as a stock that will beat the S&P 500. There are the recent concerns around vaping, the break-up of the Philip Morris merger, and the ESG angles and squeamishness around owning a cigarette stock. Depending on your predilection, that’s either a recipe to stay away or the very reason to...
Behind The Idea #94: The Activating AT&T Signal
October 15, 2019 08:00 - 51 minutesActivists come with a reputation, and few have as big a reputation as Elliott Management. AT&T (T) also comes with a reputation. The two come to ahead with Elliott Management's recent letter advocating AT&T refocus on core businesses. The letter is very compelling on where AT&T went astray, and a little more predictable on what they should do next. But at a 10x forward PE, there's not much that needs to go right. So does Elliott's argument make sense? Are AT&T shares worth turning on? We disc...
Behind The Idea #93: Ligand's Shots On Goal Target
October 08, 2019 08:00 - 47 minutesLigand Pharmaceuticals has been both a strong performer over the past decade and a target of short sellers for some time. The stock has struggled over the last 18 months, though, and Seeking Alpha author 8 Diamonds Advisors feels that the stock has become a strong buy again. The thesis rests on the company's shots on goal approach and its more diversified model. We discuss whether this holds up and what that means for investors. Topics covered: 3:15 - Key elements of 8 Diamonds Advisor's the...
Behind The Idea #92: Finding The Range For Range Resources
October 01, 2019 08:00 - 47 minutesNot that price is truth, but the price chart for Range Resources over the past five years is really ugly. But the company has long been a favorite of Seeking Alpha authors. We try to pick apart this bearish market consensus vs. bullish author sentiment with an idea from KCI Research Ltd. on the company and why its valuation is too cheap to ignore.
Behind The Idea #91: Hill International With Tim Heitman (Bonus Episode)
September 27, 2019 08:00 - 50 minutesTim Heitman of Investing 501 joins us to discuss his Hill International thesis. He likes the stock as a turnaround story and on growing gross profits, as well as some accounting quirks that may be hiding the opportunity from the market.
The Investing Edge Trailer: Talking Scorpio Tankers' Opportunity And Netflix's Big Challenge
September 26, 2019 10:00 - 9 minutesThis trailer previews our initial two shows on our newest podcast channel, The Investing Edge, from Value Investor's Edge Live hosted by J Mintzmyer, and The Razor's Edge, hosted by Daniel Shvartsman and Akram's Razor. Our excerpt for Value Investor's Edge Live is from our first episode, where J Mintzmyer speaks with Robert Bugbee of Scorpio Tankers about the company's comfortable cash position and the pending catalyst of IMO 2020. Our excerpt from The Razor's Edge is from the first epi...
Behind The Idea #90: Bluegreen's Attractive Location
September 24, 2019 08:00 - 34 minutesSafety in Value, a Seeking Alpha Marketplace author, joins us to discuss his Bluegreen Vacations thesis. He likes the stock as it trades below its previous deal price, and likes the underlying business as well. We discuss those elements, the risks to parent company BBX Capital's bid, and, because we couldn't resist, how this fits into Joel Greenblatt's investing philosophy.
Behind The Idea #89: You Can Be A Stock Market Genius, Pt. 4
September 17, 2019 08:00 - 38 minutesThrough three episodes to this point on Joel Greenblatt's You Can Be A Stock Market Genius, Mike and I have discussed what we like about his famous special situation investing strategies, and what doesn't work. We've also shared our enthusiasm for the light touch he applies to his writing, and the way he doesn't appear to take himself too seriously. Chapters 7 and 8 bring that feeling home. Chapter 7 because it shares how Greenblatt advises his readers to do the actual research, and one comp...
Behind The Idea # 88: Signing Up For The Gym Group With Jorge Robles (Bonus Episode)
September 13, 2019 10:00 - 35 minutesInvestors looking for value stock investing opportunities with catalysts ahead will be interested in Jorge Robles' perspective on UK low-cost gym operator Gym Group. The company has a reasonable competitive position, a misunderstood path to profitability, and an attractive free cash flow yield. Mike and Jorge explore the catalysts to realize the stock's value, competition within the industry, the impact of private equity ownership on companies, and the role Brexit might play in weightlifter b...
Behind The Idea #87: You Can Be A Stock Market Genius, Pt. 3
September 10, 2019 08:00 - 47 minutesChapters 5 and 6 of You Can Be A Stock Market Genius find our hero and author, Joel Greenblatt, walking on the wild side, as he looks at bankruptcies, LEAPs, restructurings, and other 'odder' corners of the market. Bankruptcies and similar topics in these chapters share some of the classic special situation traits of spin-offs and the like, but they also extend to a messier area of the market. So what holds together? We discuss that as well as some of the lessons Greenblatt drops in these cha...
Behind The Idea #86: You Can Be A Stock Market Genius, Pt. 2
September 03, 2019 08:00 - 1 hourWe continue our discussion of Joel Greenblatt's classic book, You Can Be A Stock Market Genius, with a focus on chapters 3 and 4.Chapters 3 and 4 of the book are the ones everyone remembers, especially re: spin-offs. The principles Greenblatt lays out - shareholder mismatch, the opportunity to find overlooked ideas, the chance to do close reading - all seem to be relevant today, and yet spin-offs don't seem to be as attractive a category. We break that down as well as risk arbitrage and merge...
Behind The Idea #85: You Can Be A Stock Market Genius, Part 1
August 27, 2019 08:00 - 45 minutesWe are big fans of Joel Greenblatt and his book, You Can Be A Stock Market Genius. We decided to break it down to see how it applies to today’s market, what key lessons are, what the best quotes from the book are, and our favorite Joel Greenblatt dad jokes. We start with chapters 1 and two, which lay out Greenblatt's mindset for investing. Topics Covered 3:30 minute mark - Breaking Down Chapter 1 - The Greenblatt Mantra 7:30 - The individual investor advantage 14:30 - The efficiency of th...
Behind The Idea #84: Bluegreen And The Busted Bid
August 20, 2019 08:00 - 47 minutesBluegreen Vacations (BXG) is a timeshare developer in a curious situation - its majority owner pulled a bid for the minority of the company due to a since resolved lawsuit, but the shares trade well below the previous offer. Timeshares draw their own questions, and the market has been more volatile since the bid was pulled. We discuss the idea and what that could mean for shareholders and special situations investors going forward. Topics covered: 5:00 minute mark - Overview of the busted m...
Behind The Idea #83: Paradigm Shifts, Gold, And You
August 13, 2019 08:00 - 59 minutesTwo things we usually don't do on Behind the Idea are talk about big picture macro-economic ideas, and delve into asset classes outside of stocks. We've focused on individual investing ideas through the vast majority of our episodes over the last 18 months, and that's where we've made our bones. But Mike Taylor rejoins the podcast this week after paternity leave (congrats Mike!) and he's jazzed up about Ray Dalio's recent argument that a paradigm shift is coming. So jazzed up that he invest...
Behind The Idea #82: Picking Through Pharma Pressures, With Ed Silverman
August 06, 2019 08:00 - 31 minutesWe speak with Ed Silverman, a longtime follower of the industry who has run the blog Pharmalot for over a decade. Now on StatNews, he joins us to share his insight on the industry and the pressures its facing, and to follow up on our discussion on Walgreens from two weeks ago to see how these pressures might affect the company.
Behind The Idea #81: Dell's Crown Jewel, With Thomas Lott
July 30, 2019 08:00 - 43 minutesSum of the parts stories. Legacy PC makers. Investing with Michael Dell. Those are three things that, over the past decade, have caused investors heartburn. Thomas Lott published a top idea last week that comes out tomorrow on Dell which combines each of those elements. The combination of the legacy Dell business, its acquired EMC business, and the 80.6% stake in VMWare makes for a compelling value, he argues. And yet, he's not the first to make that argument, and DELL has languished meanwhile.
Behind The Idea #80: Walking Through The Walgreens Bull Case
July 23, 2019 08:00 - 41 minutesWalgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) operates at the intersection of health care and retail. While it appears safer than many retailers, its performance has been familiarly poor. We look at the work of Trapping Value, who has been following the company for nearly two years with a focus on the bullish opportunity. We look at the changing thesis, the reimbursement pressures Walgreens faces, the pressures it's had holding on in face of a changing climate, and whether a low multiple makes up for that.
Behind The Idea #79: Checking Under Cars.Com's Hood With Cliff Banks
July 16, 2019 08:00 - 50 minutesCars.com (CARS) drew a surprising deal of interest from the Seeking Alpha community, which made it clear that we hadn't dug deeply enough. So we're revisiting it with one of the commenters on that article, CBanks40, a.k.a Cliff Banks. President and founder of the Banks Report, an online report focused on the auto retail industry, he has a lot of experience following CARS and had a lot to say on the company.
Behind The Idea #78: SaaS on SaaS With Akram's Razor, Pt. 2
July 09, 2019 08:00 - 39 minutesThis episode of Behind the Idea continues the interview I conducted with Akram's Razor, author of The Razor's Edge and longtime tech investor and Seeking Alpha author. We have the show notes below, and you can check out part one for background. Part one drilled in more to the PagerDuty (PD) short thesis, including why Atlassian (TEAM) has put a target on its smaller competitor, and what the limits are to PagerDuty's model and strategy.
Behind The Idea #77: SaaS on SaaS And The PagerDuty Short
July 02, 2019 08:00 - 51 minutesWe speak with longtime Seeking Alpha author and tech investor Akram's Razor about the software as a service (SAAS) sector and how it is changing with everybody already a believer in the cloud and subscription models. We focus on PagerDuty and the newly public company's tough competitive landscape, and why Atlassian may be twisting the screws on it.
Introducing Let's Talk ETFs: 'Aha' ETF Moments With ExponentialETFs' Phil Bak
July 02, 2019 07:00 - 6 minutesOn this sneak peek episode of Let’s Talk ETFs, Seeking Alpha’s newest podcast dedicated to the burgeoning ETF space, host Jonathan Liss is joined by ExponentialsETFs CEO Phil Bak, to discuss Phil’s ‘aha’ ETF moment, after which he was hooked on ETFs for good. Tune in every Wednesday starting July 10 for full-length episodes of Let’s Talk ETFs. Subscribe now to make sure you don’t miss a single episode
Behind The Idea #76: CrowdStrike And The Crowded Market
June 25, 2019 09:10 - 52 minutesWe've seen as big a rush of IPOs as there has been in some time. CrowdStrike appears to be one of the more impressive ones, though it's also fully valued. The company claims to have a better model for cybersecurity, involving more of an end-to-end service that is adapted to the cloud. We try to understand whether the company's moat is knowable for a non-tech expert, and how we might inform ourselves of that as general investors.
Introducing: Let’s Talk ETFs
June 20, 2019 09:00 - 1 minuteLet’s Talk ETFs is Seeking Alpha’s newest podcast. Each week, a different guest and host Jonathan Liss will take an in-depth look at a particular aspect of the rapidly evolving Exchange-Traded Fund space with a focus on how investors can best utilize ETFs to reach their investing goals. In addition, Let’s Talk ETFs will catch you up on all the most important ETF news including new fund launches and closures, top performers, and other notable ETF investing news from the previous week
Behind The Idea #75: Cars.com's Value Running Out Of Gas
June 18, 2019 08:00 - 49 minutesWe break down a short idea from Seeking Alpha contributor BOOX Research on this week's Behind the Idea. The stock? Cars.com (CARS), a legacy media company spun off and trying to make it in a competitive web-driven world. The multiple is low, but is it low enough?
Behind The Idea #74: Looking For 3M's Growth With Michael Boyd
June 11, 2019 08:00 - 37 minutesWe return to discussing 3M Company (3M) with Michael Boyd, Seeking Alpha author and owner of Industrial Insights on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. He was bearish about the company as of April, so we wanted to get his take on what led the company to this point, how they could change his mind, and what he is watching for going forward.
Behind The Idea #73: Simon Property Group Vs. The Market
June 04, 2019 08:00 - 53 minutesMall and retail real estate investment trusts (REITs) don't on the surface seem like a likely battleground for investors on Seeking Alpha. They are a relatively obscure sector of the market, one layer abstracted from the underlying retail business. And the business of owning real estate and lending it out to retail companies seems boring enough. We talk about Simon Property Group (SPG) this week, and break down the intrigue around these companies.
Behind The Idea #72: MMM And The Growth Trap
May 29, 2019 08:00 - 37 minutesWhat's going on with 3M Company? The Q1 earnings report led to the company's worst month in at least a decade, and concerns over its future growth prospects. SA author Michael Boyd argued that this was overdue, and that there are more fundamental issues going on. Does that make sense? We review the company's recent challenges, its history of innovation, and its dividend-oriented investor base to try to find some answers.
Behind The Idea #71: Starbucks' Fading Buzz
May 21, 2019 08:00 - 56 minutesStarbucks is one of the great American growth stories of the last 25-50 years. That story is starting to slow, and Seeking Alpha author Atlas Research argues that the stock is a short as management denies the reality. We break down the author's argument and whether the story - declining traffic, management mis-incentives, increasing competition - checks out, and if so, what that means for the stock.
Behind The Idea #70: Kinder Morgan And DCF 2.0
May 14, 2019 08:00 - 1 hourWe take a last bite at the apple with another discussion on Kinder Morgan. Seeking Alpha author Dividend Streamer, who has focused on Kinder Morgan in his Seeking Alpha time, discusses how he carves up the company's cash flow and what he sees as the company's enduring advantages.
Behind The Idea #69: Kinder Morgan Learns Its Lesson With Kirk Spano
May 07, 2019 08:00 - 1 hourOur first podcast on Kinder Morgan (KMI) two weeks ago was not super well-received, so we brought on one of our critics, Seeking Alpha author and current KMI bull Kirk Spano, to discuss the company further. We get into some of the criticisms we had of the company - its use of non-GAAP metrics and the underrating of its commodity pricing exposure - as well as some of the criticisms readers had of us. Kirk also lays out his bull case for the company.
Behind The Idea # 68: Trupanion's Tricky Spot
April 30, 2019 08:00 - 36 minutesTrupanion sparks bulls' and bears' passions even as it takes care of our cats and dogs. We bring on The CrickAnt, a Seeking Alpha author who focuses on insurance companies, to break down Trupanion's positioning and the particularities of the insurance industry. He highlights the biggest challenge the company faces - the need to gain market share while also increasing its bottom line.
Behind The Idea #67: Kinder Morgan And Doing The Same Thing Twice
April 23, 2019 08:00 - 1 hourKinder Morgan (KMI), one of the unsung market stories of this decade, is on the comeback trail. We look at recent coverage on the stock as well as a company presentation from March and notice a few familiar themes that remind us of 2013 or 2014, before the crash in the stock happened. Have investors learned their lesson from last time around, and has the company?
Behind The Idea #66: Categorizing The Trupanion Bull And Bear Cases
April 16, 2019 08:00 - 50 minutesYou either get having pets or you don't. The same can be said for the Trupanion (TRUP) bull and bear cases - the true believers are able to produce pages of compelling research making their case either way, unable to sway one another. We start with a bearish article which picks apart the bull case as a way into the stock. We look at what the right category for Trupanion is, whether its effect on the petcare world will be positive in the end, and where that leaves the company and the stock.
Behind The Idea #65: Boeing From The Cockpit
April 12, 2019 08:00 - 44 minutesWe round out our Boeing 737 MAX 8 related coverage by speaking to a pilot. Mike interviews his friend Matt, who flies for a US airline. He shares his insights on the mechanics of flying and what might go wrong, and so what investors might want to watch for as the 737 MAX investigations continue. He also breaks down the difference between Airbus and Boeing, which really comes down to a stance on how to best insure safety.
Behind The Idea #64: Talking Boeing's 737 MAX 8 Issues W/Madhu Unnikrishnan
April 09, 2019 08:00 - 36 minutesBoeing continues to grab headlines as the hows and whys of the recent Ethiopian Air crash are dissected by various authorities. Madhu Unnikrishnan, editor of Skift Airline Weekly, joins Mike Taylor and shares his views on the development of the 737 MAX 8, what is reasonable to expect from the review process, and how big of an impact these events might have on the company.
Behind The Idea #63: Boeing's Changed Trajectory
April 02, 2019 08:00 - 54 minutesBoeing (BA) is in the news for all the wrong reasons. In light of the Ethiopian Airlines crash, businesses, travelers, and governments have raised concerns and doubts about the company, and its strong moat and ongoing rise as a business has fallen into doubt as a result. Investors have been trying to work out the impact this might have on the stock. We discuss whether Boeing's moat is as strong as it seems, whether its ex ante valuation made sense, and where the stock might head from here.
Behind the Idea #62: Lyft Driving Onto The Market's Map
March 26, 2019 08:00 - 1 hourBig IPOs attract attention as investments and also for what they mean in the economy at large. Lyft isn't the biggest IPO expected, but as a preview to Uber and as a company in its own right, it raises a lot of questions. We discuss whether there's a value to the company and a moat that will give it a competitive edge over the years to come.
Behind the Idea # 61: JD's Accounting Issues Persist, With Mithra Forensic Research
March 19, 2019 08:00 - 51 minutesWe take our third look at JD.com (JD) by speaking with Mithra Forensic Research, an analyst who wrote a bearish piece on the company in May that seemed to play out. We discuss whether the company's accounting issues - delayed payments and financing-fueled revenue growth - have abated, why China companies often show up in short-sellers sights, and what to make of JD's investments in other Chinese companies.
Introducing The Cannabis Investing Podcast
March 18, 2019 11:12 - 3 minutesThe cannabis sector has had a ton of interest in the markets over the last few years as it struggles towards legitimacy and normalcy. We saw this on Behind the Idea when covering Canopy Growth in October and when covering Aphria and its controversial acquisitions in December. With that in mind, here's a preview of the newest Seeking Alpha podcast, The Cannabis Investing Podcast. This podcast will speak with industry experts and analysts to see where this sector might go. Check it out!
Behind The Idea #60: Outlining JD.Com's Advantages With Lester Goh
March 12, 2019 08:00 - 1 hourIt's easy to take shortcuts in investing and to make conclusions based on patterns, trends, or what the consensus is or isn't. It's something we talk about on Behind the Idea a lot. Lester Goh has gone well beyond the headlines and basic analysis in his work on JD.com, and he shares the reasons he is bullish in the e-commerce titan despite its rough year. We get into the details, the headline thoughts, and why investing in Chinese companies really isn't that different than anywhere else.
Behind The Idea #59: The Risk Of Davita's Deal Breaking With Ethan Watkins
March 05, 2019 09:00 - 57 minutesBulls and bears for a given stock are often depicted as pitted directly against one another, but oftentimes bulls and bears agree on most parts of a stock. It can be that the interpretation on one or two key details changes the whole outlook for a stock. We discuss DaVita Healthcare for a third time, this time with Ethan Watkins, who is betting against the stock. We hit on themes shared with our discussion with last week's bull, but with a different bend and conclusion.
Behind the Idea #58: Davita's Moat And Pricing With Michael Knipp
February 26, 2019 09:00 - 41 minutesHealthcare is difficult as an industry unto itself, as a political issue, and as an area to invest in. We revisit Davita Healthcare by speaking with a bull who argued that we were missing pieces from the puzzle last time we covered the story. And as we discuss, it becomes clear that the messiness around healthcare may be with us for a while, and one way or another it may create opportunities for anybody who can understand it fully.
Behind the Idea #57: PG&E Faces Looming Liabilities & Political Theater W/Alexandra Scaggs
February 22, 2019 09:00 - 36 minutesWe take one more look at the developing story around PG&E. Barron's writer Alexandra Scaggs joins Behind the Idea to discuss the moving parts, including the latest boost to the shares from a Citigroup research note. We also discuss the gaps in modern markets around climate change and flood insurance, the political influence that might come to bear, and whether the claims bill is going to overwhelm everything else.
Behind The Idea #56: The Forces Behind PG&E's Bankruptcy With WYCO Researcher
February 19, 2019 09:00 - 40 minutesSince we spoke about PG&E a few weeks ago, the company has filed for bankruptcy and the stock has basically doubled. Those are usually not successive acts in a one-month period, so what's going on? We ask WYCO Researcher, a Seeking Alpha author and expert on bankruptcy proceedings, to walk us through the PCG's fall, the recent stock price rise, and why there's still a lot of money to be lost for shareholders (in his view).