Basis Points
352 episodes - English - Latest episode: 2 days ago - ★★★★★ - 2 ratingsMacro commentary and expert-led discussions highlight what’s happening now in fixed income investing, so you can prepare for what’s next.
Investing involves risks including loss of principal. This material represents the opinions of the participants at a specific time and is not intended to forecast future events or guarantee future results and should not be relied upon as investment advice. Kevin Flanagan is a registered rep of Foreside Fund Services, LLC.
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Episodes
Pre-FOMC: A Different Type of Taper
April 17, 2024 13:38 - 4 minutes - 3.79 MBFollowing last week’s “hotter” than expected CPI release, the sole focus for the money and bond markets was to, yet again, dial back their Fed rate cut expectations. Ahead of the May FOMC meeting, this week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan dives into an aspect of Fed policy decision-making that has been flying under the radar: the balance sheet. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent. Consumer Price Index (CPI): A measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of c...
How to Navigate the Ever-changing Bond Landscape: The Barbell
April 10, 2024 04:00 - 4 minutes - 4.01 MBThe first three months and change of 2024 has brought with it a rather noteworthy shift in bond market sentiment. With Fed policy decision-making remaining data dependent for the foreseeable future, this week on the Basis Points podcast Kevin Flanagan discusses why investors should consider utilizing the time-tested barbell strategy to navigate not only the current setting, but more importantly, what potentially lies ahead. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Ind...
Inflation: The Last Mile Could Be the Hardest
April 03, 2024 04:00 - 4 minutes - 3.68 MBAs the inflation marathon enters the homestretch, the last mile might not be about to get more difficult. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses why the journey to the Federal Reserve’s target might not be as smooth as anticipated, and what this could mean for rate cuts and the bond market’s response. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent. Consumer Price Index (CPI): A measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, su...
Fed Watch: The Waiting Game Continues
March 20, 2024 20:29 - 4 minutes - 4.18 MBAt today’s FOMC meeting, the Fed did what was widely expected yet again and kept the Fed Funds target unchanged. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the Fed’s balancing act between hopeful markets and the reality of economic indicators and what it means for the future of U.S. Treasuries. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
A Time-Tested Strategy for The New Rate Regime: Laddered Treasury Solutions
March 14, 2024 12:31 - 9 minutes - 8.71 MBWith income back in fixed income, uncertainty around the bond markets and a new rate regime in play, one strategy (and two new ETFs) can help you prepare for a range of rate scenarios. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan is joined by WisdomTree CIO of Fixed Income & Model Portfolios Rick Harper to discuss laddered treasury solutions — the time-tested approach behind our Suite of Treasury ETFs. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.
Is the Fed Going to Party Like it's 1995?
March 06, 2024 21:01 - 4 minutes - 4.27 MBWith rate cuts now being the primary focus of the markets, the conversation has revolved around when such a move could occur and what the path would ultimately look like. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the rate cutting cycle that occurred in 1995/1996 and how it parallels the current market environment. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.
The Bond Market Rally That Has Yet to be Validated
February 28, 2024 05:00 - 4 minutes - 8.37 MBThe U.S. economy and inflation have surprised the bond market in 2024, reversing the rally of 2023. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan explores the implications of this on the UST 10-year yield and the Fed’s rate policy. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Treasury FRNs: Not Just a Rate Hedge
February 21, 2024 17:41 - 5 minutes - 10.5 MB2024 marks ten years since the issuance of U.S. Treasury (UST) floating rate notes (FRNs) and the launch of our Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR). This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses how USFR seeks to offer a solution for the current and prospective interest rate landscape. Important Information: Performance is historical and does not guarantee future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than quoted. Investment returns and principal value of an i...
U.S. Credit: State of the Market
February 14, 2024 11:41 - 12 minutes - 22.8 MBYields are high and profit margins have held up well despite rising cost pressures. How will that affect U.S. Credit? What are the drivers behind this growth? And where is the market headed? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan leads a discussion with Morgan Stanley’s Vishwas Patkar on what makes U.S. credit potentially attractive to investors and advisors, and the trends that will shape it over the next year. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.
Groundhog Day for the Bond Market
February 07, 2024 05:42 - 4 minutes - 7.54 MBIs the U.S. Treasury market experiencing a "Groundhog Day"? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan reflects on this time last year when the bond market was anticipating a recession and counting on weak jobs data to confirm it as we enter a similar narrative heading into 2024. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.
Fed Watch: Not So Fast, My Friend
January 31, 2024 20:56 - 3 minutes - 6.85 MBToday marked the first FOMC meeting of 2024, and as widely expected, the Fed kept the Fed Funds target unchanged. We believe rate cuts are coming, but they do not appear to be imminent just yet. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan provides his insights on the Fed’s timing for rate cuts in 2024 and analyzes factors that will affect monetary policy in 2024. Basis Points: 1/100th of a percent.
The New Rate Regime: Playing for Rate Cuts
January 24, 2024 05:00 - 4 minutes - 7.59 MBAn interesting development occurred last week: Fed 'pushback'. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses what this means and what investors should be considering regarding how to play this pivot in monetary policy. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
The New Rate Regime: Income Without the Volatility
January 17, 2024 13:50 - 4 minutes - 10.8 MBThe money and bond markets appear to be ‘doubling down’ on their optimistic expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, leaving investors to continue to be faced with elevated volatility. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan reviews the latest U.S. Treasury yields and discusses how investors can play defense against this backdrop. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
U.S. Fixed Income: Looking Back & Looking Ahead
January 03, 2024 14:46 - 4 minutes - 8.25 MBThis year was a roller coaster for fixed income. What's in store for investors in 2024? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan provides a 2023 recap and outlines some key themes for the new year. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.
How to Play the Fed Pivot in Fixed Income
December 20, 2023 05:00 - 4 minutes - 8.37 MBWhile the Fed didn't cut rates at the December policy meeting, we believe they will be coming in 2024. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan highlights two WisdomTree funds that can help bond investors navigate the investment landscape that may be lying ahead. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Fed Watch: Pivot, Pivot
December 13, 2023 21:30 - 3 minutes - 7.27 MBAt today’s FOMC meeting, the Fed did what was widely expected and kept interest rates unchanged. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan provides his insights on the disconnect between the Fed and market expectations, as well as the impact on fixed income investors. Basis Points: 1/100th of a percent.
Entering the Land of Confusion
December 11, 2023 13:02 - 18 minutes - 33.4 MBWhat action will the Fed take next and where is the market headed? In this special episode of the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan is joined by Matt Hornbach Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley. During the episode, the speakers offer their insights and perspectives on Morgan Stanley’s 2024 Outlook for the bond market titled Land of Confusion. They also discuss the market’s expectations given the current decline in Treasury yields and uncertainty regarding interest rates. Bas...
Will the Recent Plummet in Treasury Yields Be Validated?
December 06, 2023 15:22 - 4 minutes - 8.29 MBOne of the more noteworthy developments in the financial markets of late has been the plunge in U.S. Treasury (UST) yields. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan reviews the implications and provides some monetary policy outlook for 2024. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent. Federal funds rate: The rate that banks that are members of the Federal Reserve system charge on overnight loans to one another. The Federal Open Market Committee sets this rate. Also referred to as the “...
Income Sans the Volatility…A Year Later
November 29, 2023 13:24 - 5 minutes - 9.38 MBWe believe investors are being faced with a new rate regime as we get ready to enter 2024. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan surveys the state of the U.S. Treasury (UST) market and outlines how investors can prepare. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.
Harvesting Losses into a Field of Opportunity
November 15, 2023 05:00 - 3 minutes - 7.47 MBAs we approach the end of 2023, investors may want to take stock of their fixed income portfolio and consider how to position for the new year. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses tax-loss harvesting and how to implement a barbell strategy with a few of our fixed income ETFs. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent. Duration: A measure of a bond’s sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The weighted average accounts for the various durations of the bonds purchased a...
Just How Tight Are Financial Conditions Anyway?
November 08, 2023 05:00 - 3 minutes - 5.69 MBOne takeaway from the November FOMC meeting is that tighter financial conditions are now a key monetary policy input. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan analyzes the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index to gauge the current state of the markets. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.
Fed Watch: In a Holding Pattern
November 01, 2023 19:51 - 4 minutes - 7.57 MBAt today’s FOMC meeting, the Fed voted to keep interest rates unchanged. As a result, the trading range remains at 5.25%–5.50%, a more than 20-year high watermark. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan analyzes the impact of the rise in Treasury yields, the ongoing quantitative tightening and the new rate regime on fixed income investors. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Income Sans the Volatility...A Year Later
November 01, 2023 04:00 - 5 minutes - 9.38 MBWe believe investors are being faced with a new rate regime as we get ready to enter 2024. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan surveys the state of the U.S. Treasury (UST) market and outlines how investors can prepare. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.
Have Inverted Yield Curves Lost Their Way?
October 18, 2023 14:33 - 4 minutes - 8.41 MBThe U.S. economy has been resilient despite the inverted yield curves, but is it too early to celebrate? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses how the recent surge in UST 10-yr yield has changed the shape of the curves and what it means for the future of the economy. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Do You Want to See Something Really Scary?
October 11, 2023 15:01 - 4 minutes - 8.01 MBHalloween season is now upon us and if you look at recent price action within the U.S. Treasury (UST) market, it looks as if the ‘spooks’ have already started. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses why this is happening and how investors can position their bond portfolios as the U.S. Treasury market 10-year yield hits a 16-year high. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent. Barbell: The barbell is an investment strategy applicable primarily to a fixed income portfolio...
Fed Watch: Is That All You Got?
September 20, 2023 20:06 - 3 minutes - 6.71 MBThe Fed left the interest rates unchanged at today’s FOMC meeting, keeping the trading range at 5.25% –5.50%. Could the markets still see another rate hike in 2023? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the possibility of another rate hike as we move into Q4 and head toward 2024. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
U.S. Economy: Receding Recession Expectations
September 13, 2023 04:00 - 4 minutes - 8.36 MBOne of the more surprising outcomes so far this year is that markets have yet to see a recession. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan examines two indicators of economic growth, GDI and GDP, and discusses what to anticipate in Q3 and the rest of 2023. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
U.S. Labor Market Activity: Slowing, Not Weakening
September 06, 2023 04:00 - 3 minutes - 8.34 MBWhile the Fed has emphasized that future policy decisions would be based on the “totality” of upcoming economic data, make no mistake, employment reports go to the front of the line. As the September FOMC meeting approaches, Kevin Flanagan analyzes the latest jobs numbers on this week’s episode of the Basis Points podcast. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Five Alive
August 30, 2023 04:00 - 4 minutes - 9.69 MBWhile Powell didn’t offer up any groundbreaking headlines in his Jackson Hole speech last week, the overarching message from the chair still resounds loud and clear: rates will be “higher for longer.” This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan aims to answer the question, how high and how long? Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Does What Goes Up Have to Come Down?
August 23, 2023 04:00 - 4 minutes - 3.94 MBFor those looking for a summer respite for the bond market in August…think again. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan gets into the root causes of the recent increase in the 10-Year yield and whether it is reasonable to expect a reversal any time soon. Basis point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Budget Deficits Come Into Focus
August 09, 2023 04:00 - 4 minutes - 7.95 MBHow does the U.S. budget deficit affect the Treasury market and the economy? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan covers the recent developments on the deficit, the U.S. government’s long-term rating downgrade, and the funding challenges. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.
Still Want to be Late to the Duration Party
August 02, 2023 04:00 - 3 minutes - 7.44 MBThroughout the course of the current Fed rate hike cycle and attendant increase in the U.S. Treasury (UST) 10-year yield, investors periodically ask: is it time to go long duration? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan explains why it’s better to be late rather than early to the duration party against this backdrop. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Bonds: A 1H 2023 Report Card
July 19, 2023 10:46 - 4 minutes - 8.14 MBIs 2022 the year not to be named? After what was arguably the worst year on record, we believed this year could be a positive one for bond investors. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan takes a look back and ahead at key economic indicators to provide a first half report card for the fixed income markets and what investors might expect in the second half of the year. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.
Skipping the Pause
July 05, 2023 18:12 - 3 minutes - 6.92 MBFollowing the June FOMC meeting where Fed hit pause, speculation began to intensify about what the policymakers next move could be. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan delves into the recent Fed developments and if the Fed is really going to pause rate hikes for the summer. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
U.S. High Yield: What's Priced In?
June 28, 2023 04:00 - 13 minutes - 26.1 MBAs the Federal Reserve's "hawkish pause" dominates headlines, investors are left wondering when the long-anticipated recession will be coming. During this week’s episode of the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan is joined by Head of Credit Strategy, Sri Sankaran of Morgan Stanley to discuss the current dynamics in the high yield bond, credit default and leverage loan markets. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.
A Nice Dose of: Don't Fight the Fed
June 21, 2023 14:45 - 3 minutes - 6.4 MBThroughout this Fed rate hike cycle, there always seemed to be some sort of disconnect between what the policymakers were saying and what the money and bond markets were thinking. Recently, 'don't fight the Fed' seems to be the current sentiment. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the shift. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent.
Fed Watch: End of the Line?
June 14, 2023 20:22 - 3 minutes - 7.01 MBFor the first time since the Fed began raising rates in March of last year, the voting members did not implement a rate increase at the recent June FOMC meeting. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses U.S. monetary policy implications, including investor expectations for the remainder of the year as Powell & Co. take a pause from rate action. Basis Points: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Debt Ceiling: Waiting for a Done Deal
May 31, 2023 09:57 - 4 minutes - 8.38 MBWith the debt saga still ongoing, sometimes looking at current headlines juxtaposed with historical events can provide some useful context. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan covers what investors can learn from the 2011 credit rating downgrade. Basis Point: 1/100th of a percent
The New Fed Debate: Skip vs. Pause or Pause vs. Cut?
May 24, 2023 11:41 - 4 minutes - 7.7 MBThe money and bond markets find themselves in an interesting spot on the calendar, nestled right in between the May and June FOMC meetings. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the latest Fedspeak and if it could translate to a skip, a pause, or even a cut. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Some Perspective on Banking Woes: Two Months Later
May 17, 2023 13:15 - 4 minutes - 9.33 MBIt’s been roughly two months now operating in a post-Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) World and the markets are still feeling its impact. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses a very important arena where developments have seemingly flown under the radar of late: the funding markets. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
'Floating' Up to the Ceiling...Revisited
May 10, 2023 18:39 - 8 minutes - 15.5 MBHow concerned should investors be about the pending debt ceiling debate? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan reviews past debt ceiling sagas, discusses what investors should focus on and looks at possible outcomes. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Fed Watch: The Waiting Is the Hardest Part
May 03, 2023 21:13 - 4 minutes - 7.59 MBIn what was a widely expected outcome, the Fed raised interest rates by another quarter point today, elevating the Fed Funds trading range to its highest level since 2007. Now what? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses what to expect from Powell & Co. next and what to anticipate for the investment landscape in the months ahead. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
A Tale of Two Yield Curves
April 19, 2023 04:00 - 3 minutes - 6.8 MBDo you remember when inverted Treasury Yield Curves were all the rage? This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan reflects on the year that was and covers the state of the inverted treasury yield curves along with its predictive value on recession fears today. Listen now as Kevin discusses what’s at play in the Treasury market for investors, including, among other things, the 2- and 10-year gauges. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Just Hold On a Minute
April 12, 2023 04:00 - 4 minutes - 8.81 MBAfter a slew of second-tier data points last week, the market was feeling uneasy about the economy's health, but the March jobs report could provide some breathing room for investors. This week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the impact of the latest economic data on the treasury market and potential recession risks. Listen now as Kevin dives deeper into the intersection of economic indicators and fixed income investing. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
A Month at Six Flags for Treasuries
April 05, 2023 04:00 - 4 minutes - 8.72 MBThis week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses a new dynamic in the U.S. Treasury market ignited by the recent banking crisis. Listen now to hear Kevin’s insights regarding elevated volatility, unusual trading and key yield activities over the last month. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
The Fed's Lending a Hand
March 29, 2023 13:39 - 4 minutes - 7.88 MBThis week on the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the Fed’s actions following the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. During the episode, Kevin covers the regional and international impact of the collapse and provides a silver lining as the markets continue to grapple with the aftereffects. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Fed Watch: Threading the Needle
March 22, 2023 21:30 - 6 minutes - 11.4 MBFor the second meeting in a row, the Fed implemented a 25 basis point rate hike, bringing the new fed funds trading range to 4.75% - 5%. The question on everyone’s mind now is whether the Fed continues on their rate hike mission, or is a pause, or even a rate cut in the near future. During this week’s episode of the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the Fed’s attempt to thread the needle given this newfound level of uncertainty. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
What A World, What A World
March 13, 2023 19:47 - 5 minutes - 9.82 MBLast week was eventful for the bond markets. During this week’s episode of the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan reviews the latest developments against the current backdrop. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Shelter From the Storm?
March 01, 2023 05:00 - 4 minutes - 7.58 MBWhile inflation appears to have peaked last summer, unfortunately for the Fed, and by extension the bond market, the future road may not be as much of a one-way street to the downside as we saw during the autumn months. During this week's episode of the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan covers the latest Consumer Price Index data and explains why the Fed will continue to operate under the assumption it ‘has more work to do’ in fighting inflation. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.
Are the Winds of Change Turning into Gale Warnings?
February 22, 2023 14:13 - 4 minutes - 8.89 MBFor the first six weeks of 2023, volatility in the money and bond markets took center stage, with a full year’s rally occurring in only about one month’s timeframe. However, over the past two weeks, UST yields have completely reversed course. During this week’s episode of the Basis Points podcast, Kevin Flanagan discusses the dramatic shift in the market’s narrative. Basis Point: 1/100th of 1 percent.