Art of Boring
152 episodes - English - Latest episode: 12 days ago - ★★★★ - 5 ratingsListen as Mawer Investment Management Ltd. takes a deeper dive into the investment philosophy and strategies that have helped put the odds in their clients’ favour for over 45 years.
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Episodes
Quarterly Update | Q1 2024 | EP152
April 16, 2024 08:00 - 14 minutes - 13.6 MBAs markets continue on a dynamic trend, fixed income portfolio manager Crista Caughlin discusses the economy and factors that drove markets in the first quarter of 2024. In addition, the reemergence of a more typical correlation pattern between stocks and bonds, getting central banks off the sidelines, and the concern that markets may be being too complacent. Key points from this episode: Global growth improving, inflation moderating, and earnings relatively strong In Canada, growth ha...
Why Position Size Matters in Investing | EP151
March 28, 2024 08:00 - 42 minutes - 38.7 MBPortfolio Manager Manar Hassan-Agha discusses the importance of position sizing in investing and how factors like behavioural biases, market structures, and optimal betting strategies under the Kelly Criterion can impact returns at varying position weights. The conversation explores limitations in precisely calculating probabilities and edges for stock investments and how frameworks and checklists can be used dynamically to thoughtfully consider odds, edges, and optimal sizing for investment...
Playing the plan: Mawer's International equity portfolio | EP150
March 06, 2024 09:00 - 16 minutes - 15.2 MBPortfolio Manager Peter Lampert breaks down the decision to re-open the strategy to new institutional investors and the key inputs that determine the strategy’s capacity. In addition, “a tale of two acquisitions”: one head scratching, the other improving the investment thesis of the holding. Key Points From This Episode: Breaking down the decision to re-open the strategy to new institutional investors How the team determines the strategy’s capacity A puzzling acquisition by KDDI and ...
Post-Mortem: Learnings from 2023 | EP149
February 29, 2024 09:00 - 39 minutes - 27.4 MBIn this episode, host Rob Campbell and 11 colleagues on the research team engage in a comprehensive post-mortem analysis, sharing candid reflections on their decision-making processes over the past year. This episode underscores the significance of learning from both successes and mistakes, highlighting the value of vulnerability and introspection within the investment team at Mawer. A Few Highlights: • Investing before comfort in competitive markets is necessary for returns • Less co...
Introducing: The Mawer Global Credit Opportunities Strategy | EP148
January 31, 2024 15:00 - 27 minutes - 19.3 MBIn this episode, newly appointed Fixed Income Portfolio Manager at Mawer, Brian Carney, shares his insights on global credit strategies. With over 30 years of experience in the investment industry, Brian discusses his career journey, the evolution of credit markets, and his perspectives on current market dynamics. He highlights Mawer's approach to managing credit risks and opportunities, detailing the new Global Credit Opportunity Strategy at Mawer. Key Points From This Episode: ...
Global Equities: Moneyball, Weighing Decisions, and Finding an Edge | EP147
January 24, 2024 09:00 - 16 minutes - 11.6 MBIn this episode, Manar Hassan-Agha, co-manager of the Global Equity Strategy, joins host Rob Campbell to discuss applying the 'Moneyball' process in evaluating past investment decisions. They unpack the lessons learned from this approach, emphasizing long-term thinking in investment strategies. The conversation highlights critical insights from the Moneyball statistics, the importance of decision quality over short-term results, and the value of inactivity in investment management. ...
Quarterly Update | Q4 2023 | EP146
January 16, 2024 09:00 - 12 minutes - 8.96 MBIn this episode, Kevin Minas sits down with Crista Caughlin, Lead Portfolio Manager at Mawer, focusing on the key economic developments of Q4, including growth levels, inflation trends, and the resilience of financial markets. They speak on the nuances of the Canadian bond strategy and the impact of these economic factors on portfolio management. Key Points From This Episode: Volatility in Q4 with notable declines in interest rates and inflation Marginal changes in growth, ...
EAFE Equities: Japan, Interest Rates, and Managing Volatility | EP145
December 07, 2023 09:00 - 13 minutes - 9.79 MBIn this episode, Dave Ragan, co-manager for the EAFE large-cap strategy, speaks on the current state and future prospects of EAFE markets. He delves into Japan's market challenges and opportunities, examines the impact of global interest rates and economic conditions, and explores the decision-making processes in market volatility. Key Points From This Episode: Japan's historical challenges and current state in the EAFE portfolio Chugai Pharmaceutical: A recent addition to...
Emerging Markets: Recent Rebound, China, and New Opportunities | EP144
November 23, 2023 09:00 - 9 minutes - 6.8 MBPortfolio Manager Peter Lampert dives into the world of emerging markets, sharing what’s changed for the portfolio since last year, insights on where we’re seeing new opportunities (e.g., Brazil), and the impact of geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe. He also explores why we’ve reduced our weight and exposure in China and what a slowdown in emerging markets might mean for investors. Key Points from this Episode: Main drivers behind the portfolio’s rebound in performance from...
Beyond AI: Other Technology Trends | EP143
November 09, 2023 09:00 - 15 minutes - 10.7 MBToday on the podcast, Equity Analyst Michael Vogel discusses the importance of analyzing technological shifts beyond artificial intelligence and how these shifts can impact non-tech companies in the portfolio. Michael emphasizes the cultural approach to holding views lightly and shares examples of how the Research team navigates these changes. Key Points From This Episode: - Tech changes, non-tech companies adapting, potential shifts - Image sensors improve, and Kodak sales rise st...
Quarterly Update | Q3 2023 | EP142
October 17, 2023 06:39 - 14 minutes - 13 MBA recap of the quarter and our thoughts on the hard vs. soft landing debate. Highlights: Main drivers of the market pullback Inflation’s persistent “stickiness” and potential implications of “higher for longer” interest rates How are consumers faring? Asset mix update Looking ahead—what’s on our radar
Canadian Equities: Inflation, Interest Rates, and Decision Making | EP141
October 12, 2023 07:00 - 24 minutes - 22.7 MBMain themes impacting the portfolio and the benefits of systematically tracking investment decisions. Highlights: Valuation considerations in a higher rate environment How (and why) we’ve started systematically tracking and analyzing our investment decisions Portfolio adjustments—adding AltaGas, exiting Enbridge and Agnico Eagle Quick dive into Dollarama’s business model and some of the stock drivers
U.S. Mid Cap Equities: Tech, Regional Banks, and Valuation | EP140
September 20, 2023 07:00 - 40 minutes - 36.8 MBA look at the strategy a year on and why we think valuation should be more top of mind for investors. Highlights: Influence of big tech stocks on the U.S. market and associated impacts to the small and mid cap space The AI theme continues—Elastic, Concentrix, Moderna Why is the U.S. market more expensive compared to its developed market peers? Regional banks—what happened, the current state, and opportunities (e.g., First Citizens Bank) Identifying potential economic themes throug...
Global Equities: Scuttlebutt, Reverse Roadshows, and Bathroom Lists | EP139
August 24, 2023 15:21 - 35 minutes - 32.7 MBHow we approach finding new ideas in the widest investment universe. Highlights Eagles and vultures mental model—why idea generation is better enabled by one shared investment philosophy and knowledge base E.g., Novo Nordisk and Publicis What is the “Bathroom List” and its role in our investment process and ESG considerations—e.g., JDE Peet’s Why nuance matters when incorporating scuttlebutt—e.g., Publicis How we’re continuously refining and improving our processes Current emerg...
Vulnerabilities vs. Triggers | EP138
August 02, 2023 10:00 - 34 minutes - 24.1 MBUnpacking one of our key mental models around investing and managing risk. Highlights: What we mean by “non-predictive decision making” Examining the question, “what’s your outlook and how you are positioned accordingly?” through a non-predictive decision-making lens The important difference between vulnerabilities and triggers Vulnerabilities we’re paying attention to
Quarterly Update | Q2 2023 | EP137
July 19, 2023 10:00 - 20 minutes - 14.5 MBMarket drivers that stood out this quarter, where inflation is at, and an asset mix update. Highlights: How markets have been climbing a “wall of worry” Recalling Cisco Systems and considering implications around the current concentration of tech stocks in the S&P 500 Our thoughts on the continuing rate hikes and “soft landing” scenario Holding cash: what’s changed?
International Equities: Insights from the Road | EP136
July 06, 2023 08:00 - 36 minutes - 25 MBTop highlights from the team’s recent research trips and a few business models we’re excited about. Highlights: Insights from visiting Norway, the Netherlands, Kazakhstan, India and some holdings—Equinor, AutoStore™, Ahold Delhaize, Adyen, Genmab, Kaspi, Weir, HDFC Bank Why we’ve been reducing our weight in China and our current thinking around regional exposures The unique competitive advantages of Compass Group and Chugai Current and future implications of AI for the portfolio...
Global Small Caps, Engaged Owners, and Reverse Roadshows | EP135
June 21, 2023 10:00 - 32 minutes - 22.5 MBA deep dive into key themes we’ve been focusing on, recent additions to the portfolio, and a few changes. Highlights: Quick recap: What has changed with the portfolio since 2022? What we mean by “engaged owners” (and the difference they can make) Why we are looking for companies with lower duration How we try to find a variant perception from the market—and some examples Recent additions to the portfolio: Dermapharm, Donnelley Financial, Hikma, Ipsos, SoftwareONE, and Technogy...
U.S. Equities: ChatGPT, Banks, and Earnings | EP134
May 24, 2023 10:00 - 25 minutes - 18 MBWhy management teams matter, energy companies rarely meet our investment criteria, and JPMorgan and State Street differ from many regional banks. Highlights Potential implications of the recent advancements in generative AI U.S. regional banking challenges and our exposure Why we don’t currently own any energy sector companies in the portfolio A look at two holdings—one “old” and one new—Verisk and BorgWarner Our observations on broader earnings results
The Epistemology of Investing: A Near Insurmountable Challenge | EP133
April 27, 2023 14:00 - 30 minutes - 21 MBWhy genuine knowledge building and the ability to learn effectively in investing is difficult, and how we try to work around those challenges. Highlights: Context setting: What does “epistemology” mean, and why did we get excited about it in relation to investing? What is knowledge? How do you create it? The two founding blocks: Inductive and deductive reasoning A contrast in knowledge approaches and evolutions—e.g., the airline industry vs. astrology The resonance behind the le...
Quarterly Update | Q1 2023 | EP132
April 19, 2023 10:00 - 17 minutes - 12.5 MBThe major themes of the quarter, where we are in the interest rate hike cycle, and our thoughts on the recent banking crisis. Highlights: The slow-moving impacts of central bank policy on inflation Our banking exposure Why it’s important for investors not to fear recessions Asset mix update
Canadian Small Caps, Energy, Risk Management, and Assessing Management Teams | EP131
April 12, 2023 10:00 - 33 minutes - 23.1 MBThis episode, we discuss our seven-point management assessment framework (with examples), our risk management approach, and overall thoughts on energy. Highlights: Why it’s difficult to find energy companies with sustainable competitive advantages—and where we see some opportunities—e.g., Parex Resources and International Petroleum Corporation Another way to look at geographic diversification? Revenue profiles in the portfolio (e.g., Jamieson Wellness Inc.) Diving into our Managem...
Emerging Markets: What happened in 2022, and where are we at? | EP130
March 15, 2023 10:00 - 34 minutes - 23.8 MBDigging into last year’s performance drivers, the current opportunity set, and benefits of resuming boots-on-the-ground research. Highlights: A review of the market and our strategy’s performance in 2022 and three key learnings Why we exited Kakao, and some of the new additions to the portfolio: Salik, Vesta Risks we’re monitoring—and managing: China-U.S. tensions over Taiwan and geographic exposure in the portfolio The power of pricing power (see: TSMC) and types of ESG conside...
Inflation’s One-Two Punch | EP129
March 01, 2023 11:00 - 13 minutes - 9.79 MBThe nuanced impacts of inflation to companies’ balance sheets that investors might be missing. Highlights: How inflation can present major challenges to businesses Why investors need to look more closely at maintenance capital expenditures and depreciation expenditures—e.g., Dollar General A return to accounting basics and monitoring inventory balances—e.g., Johnson & Johnson
Post-Mortem: Learnings from 2022 | EP128
February 22, 2023 11:00 - 26 minutes - 18.5 MBChief Investment Officer Paul Moroz shares takeaways from the Research team's annual post-mortem discussions. Highlights: The cyclical—and long-term—aspect to investment learnings Why interest rake hikes were a big factor and topic of conversation “Fishtailing” and the difficulties of trying to right-size information How emotional intelligence makes for better decision making “Simplify, clarify, focus” and offsetting the toll of complexity in processes
Is the 60/40 Portfolio Dead? And more fixed income questions answered | EP127
February 08, 2023 11:00 - 26 minutes - 18.5 MBPortfolio Manager Crista Caughlin walks listeners through the tumultuous bond market experiences of 2022 and outlines three main economic scenarios the team is monitoring for 2023. Highlights: Are reports of the 60/40 portfolio’s death greatly exaggerated? 2022 recap: What happened in bond markets? How can the yield curve un-invert? Key takeaways from researching Canadian household debt levels Adjustments to the portfolio: What changes have we made?
Europe, Energy, ESG: Observations from the road | EP126
January 25, 2023 11:00 - 32 minutes - 22.3 MBSome of the main challenges facing the continent, what we gleaned from visiting over 45 companies, and ESG considerations that are front of mind for major European investment firms. Highlights: Our thoughts on the prevailing macro concerns—e.g., inflation energy crisis “Collective corporate memory” and why the history of Europe is an important and unique context—particularly seen from a bottom-up perspective (e.g., Kuehne+Nagel, Lonza, Givaudan, SGS, Reckitt, Anglo American, Roche) Di...
Quarterly Update | Q4 2022 | EP125
January 16, 2023 11:00 - 25 minutes - 18.1 MBA review of last quarter, the major themes and takeaways from 2022, and what’s on the horizon for the new year. Highlights: How we did—and what factors impacted relative performance Why 2022 was difficult for Balanced investors Discount rates have gone up…where are valuations at? Inflation expectations, interest rates, labour markets, earnings, and economic growth—what’s being monitored in 2023 Asset mix update
S-Curves and the Adoption Cycle | EP124
December 28, 2022 11:00 - 30 minutes - 21 MBWhat investors can learn from the s-curves of technologies both old and new. Highlights How S-curves relate to TAM (total addressable market)—and what piqued our interest about them in the first place Types of S-curves Where different technologies fall into an S-curve: E.g., cars, refrigerators, landlines, TVs, Kindles, USB ports, and biologic drugs Are S-curves getting steeper?
Playing the plan: Mawer’s Canadian equity portfolio | EP123
December 14, 2022 11:00 - 32 minutes - 22.3 MBWhat we think about the newly proposed tax on share buybacks in Canada, a balanced take on the energy theme, and where we’ve trimmed, exited, and added in the portfolio. Highlights: Which sectors may be most affected by the buyback tax Holdings that showed strong fundamentals throughout this year’s volatility—e.g., Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor, Loblaws, Dollarama, and more Canadian real estate recap—e.g., Choice Properties and Granite REIT How we approach assessing big C-s...
The art of discount rates | EP122
November 23, 2022 11:00 - 35 minutes - 24.4 MBHow do investors figure out what a company is worth? (Especially in a higher inflationary and interest rate environment?) Highlights Why doing a qualitative assessment of each company is our first filter How we try to determine valuations without missing the actual fundamentals (e.g., Trisura and Kinsale) and why valuation is only one input in the investment decision-making process When DCF modelling can actually help us better understand the drivers of the business—e.g., Colliers...
What the end of Moore's Law means for the semiconductor industry | EP121
November 16, 2022 11:00 - 21 minutes - 15.2 MBA deep dive—right to the atomic level—of how semiconductors work and the potential implications for the industry when Moore’s Law comes to an end. Highlights The transistor—a brief history What is a semiconductor? Why are they special? (Hint: atomic-level, laser precision manufacturing) HSMC, ASML, Amazon, KLA, Samsung—what the end of Moore’s Law might mean for various businesses in the semiconductor value chain Potential impacts to global productivity Will Rob continue to be ...
Playing the plan: Mawer’s U.S. equity portfolio | EP120
November 09, 2022 11:00 - 34 minutes - 23.8 MBThe deglobalization shift, long-term opportunities we’re seeing in utilities, and what’s interesting about gravel. Highlights: Impacts of currency swings and a strong U.S. dollar at the portfolio and company level Why we’re shifting to more domestic companies: E.g., Texas Instruments, Martin Marietta, Paychex The long-term runway potential for utilities—and renewables: E.g., Southern Company, AEP, Amphenol, and Linde How we’re adding resiliency to prepare for any scenario: E.g., Ame...
Playing the plan: Mawer’s global equity portfolio | EP119
October 26, 2022 10:00 - 19 minutes - 13.5 MBThe “Swiss cheese” mental model for risk management, why we initiated in Moderna, and how to test if you have a variant perception from the broader market.
Quarterly Update | Q3 2022 | EP118
October 18, 2022 10:00 - 26 minutes - 18.5 MBMarket swings, central bank moves, and rising interest rates. A look at Q3.
Playing the plan: Mawer U.S. mid cap equity portfolio | EP117
September 07, 2022 10:00 - 32 minutes - 22.6 MBWhat makes the U.S. mid cap investable universe unique, some key learnings since the strategy’s launch, and how inflation can be a “positive” for wealth-creating companies.
Playing the plan: Mawer’s global small cap portfolio | EP116
August 24, 2022 10:00 - 20 minutes - 14.6 MBWhy small caps may zig while large caps zag, the advantage of businesses that sell scarce skills (CBIZ, Insperity, RS Group), and why eyewear retail is harder than it…looks.
Playing the plan: Mawer’s international equity portfolio | EP115
August 03, 2022 10:00 - 28 minutes - 20 MBThe impacts of inflation, interest rates, and sharp currency movements on the portfolio, and the importance of leaning in to process and keeping a long-term perspective.
An energy-fuelled debate: Are renewables actually becoming cheaper? | EP114
July 20, 2022 10:00 - 38 minutes - 26.5 MBThe team debates the thesis that renewables are becoming “cheaper” than traditional energy sources, unpacks why the ultimate cost to the end consumer shouldn’t be missing from the conversation, and delves into the investment implications.
Quarterly Update | Q2 2022 | EP113
July 13, 2022 10:00 - 24 minutes - 23.2 MBInflation, interest rates, the valuation correction, bias creep, and “sticking to our knitting.” A full dive into Q2.
How to make (good) decisions | EP112
June 29, 2022 10:00 - 38 minutes - 26.7 MBCIO Paul Moroz unpacks the foundational components to better decision making for investing, business, and life.
Playing the plan: Mawer’s Canadian bond portfolio | EP111
June 22, 2022 10:00 - 21 minutes - 14.9 MBLead Portfolio Manager, Crista Caughlin, on what’s happening in bond markets, a look at inflation and interest rates, and the key scenarios we’re monitoring.
Playing the plan: Mawer’s Canadian equity portfolio | EP110
June 08, 2022 10:00 - 31 minutes - 21.6 MBOpportunities and risks we’re seeing in energy, rail, and financials; why we exited Shopify; and a few team learnings.
Deep dive: DevOps | EP109
May 25, 2022 10:00 - 37 minutes - 25.8 MBWhat DevOps is and why it’s a theme with investment potential.
Creativity vs. Frameworks: How to build a better decision-making environment | EP108
May 11, 2022 10:00 - 29 minutes - 20.5 MBOn building a “global investment franchise” and balancing the trade-offs between creativity, efficiency, and process to build a consistent environment for better investment decisions.
Playing the plan: Mawer’s emerging markets equity portfolio | EP107
April 27, 2022 10:00 - 21 minutes - 29.6 MBRussia, the potential parallels to Taiwan and China, and macro to micro portfolio considerations in an inflationary environment.
Quarterly Update | Q1 2022 | EP106
April 20, 2022 10:00 - 23 minutes - 16.3 MBiTunes: CIO Paul Moroz shares his take on what’s happening in the markets, some of the underlying factors behind recent performance, and a reminder that the wheels of capitalism will continue to turn.
Playing the plan: Mawer’s U.S. equity portfolio | EP105
April 13, 2022 10:00 - 22 minutes - 15.3 MBPortfolio Managers Grayson Witcher and Colin Wong share market observations, industries where fundamentals are shifting, and a few recent additions to the portfolio.
Playing the plan: Mawer’s EAFE large cap portfolio | EP104
March 16, 2022 10:00 - 39 minutes - 27.5 MBJim Hall (chair, head of our risk management process, and portfolio manager) shares his overall observations on prevailing macroeconomic risks—and the effects on our process and the EAFE large cap portfolio.
Playing the plan: Mawer’s global equity portfolio | EP103
February 23, 2022 11:00 - 28 minutes - 19.6 MBHow we achieve balance in the portfolio, manage hubris, and have accounted for inflation risk in our investment process.