Ag Economic Insights
175 episodes - English - Latest episode: over 1 year ago -The official podcast for AEI Premium subscribers. Join weekly as Brent and David review the biggest stories and uncertainties facing agriculture. It's the topics everyone is talking about, but Brent and David will tell you what nobody else will- their specific forecasts
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Episodes
Predictions from early sales, commodity pacing
November 01, 2022 03:00 - 12 minutes - 8.26 MBDavid discusses early commodity sales numbers, takes a more in-depth look at which commodities are selling to China and in what quantities, provides an update on the soon-to-end 2022 Yield Forecast Challenge, and announces a few temporary changes to the regular video and podcast production schedules.
Another look: corn and Mexico, soybean yields
October 25, 2022 09:00 - 10 minutes - 7.38 MBDavid discusses the current situation with Mexican imports of U.S. corn, the implications of a no-GMO and anti-glyphosate import policy, the change in corn use in Mexico, and how the Westcott-Jewison model applies to soybeans.
In with the new: New yield data, new questions, new podcast season
October 17, 2022 10:00 - 11 minutes - 7.95 MBDavid discusses yield details from the newly released October WASDE report, trends in wheat pricing, and the relationship between corn and wheat prices, highlights the four remaining questions in the AEI Yield Forecast Challenge, and introduces the newest season of AEI Presents - Nothing Borrowed, Nothing Gained.
Examining inflation and missing corn, soybean acres
October 11, 2022 10:00 - 13 minutes - 9.28 MBDavid discusses new articles, explores the causes of the reduction in planted soybean and corn acres from the March Perspective Planting report, and examines the pace of inflation.
Examining fertilizer prices and captial expenditures
October 04, 2022 22:00 - 13 minutes - 9.62 MBDavid discusses recent articles, takes a closer look at what relative pricing means for fertilizer price ratios, explores trends in capital expenditures, and highlights how predicting the path of a hurricane uses forecasting that could be applied to other topics.
The Fed, interest rates, and fertilizer - oh my
September 27, 2022 10:00 - 12 minutes - 8.74 MBDavid discusses recent articles, changes in the interest rate, what long-term rates may mean for farmers, and shifting fertilizer prices.
Crunching the numbers: Crop yield, use, and ag spending
September 19, 2022 10:00 - 7 minutes - 5.36 MBDavid discusses details from the September WASDE Report, results of a deeper dive into government agricultural spending programs, and takes a look at net farm income.
Accounting for new data and revising predictions
September 13, 2022 10:00 - 15 minutes - 10.7 MBDavid and Brent discuss gasoline price changes, commodity exports, crop yield predictions, sales of corn to China, and what makes a fragile game challenging to play
Accounting for new data and revising predictions
September 13, 2022 10:00 - 15 minutes - 10.7 MBDavid and Brent discuss gasoline price changes, commodity exports, crop yield predictions, sales of corn to China, and what makes a fragile game challenging to play
Taking a deeper dive into ending stocks and solutions
September 06, 2022 10:00 - 11 minutes - 7.98 MBDavid discusses the tight grain stocks situation, U.S. and global ending stocks, ways to potentially fix a tight stock situation, and a likely outcome from the current tight stock situation.
Taking a longer look at crop yield influencers and farmland values
August 29, 2022 10:00 - 12 minutes - 8.88 MBDavid discusses new articles, Jeff Young's ongoing analysis of crop yields and recent application of the Westcott-Jewison model, a more complete look at changes to farmland values, and the newest episode of the Ag Interrupted podcast.
The August Yield Episode
August 22, 2022 10:00 - 9 minutes - 6.85 MBDavid soliloquizes about crop yield forecasts, yield uncertainty remaining at this point in the year, the state of the ongoing Ag Forecast Challenge, and new articles.
Highlighting WASDE results and market forces
August 15, 2022 10:00 - 9 minutes - 6.33 MBDavid soliloquizes about the yield and crop details from the August WASDE, changes to Indiana farmland values, and corn-soybean exchange rates with established and emerging economies.
Implications of China's buying habits and economic pain points
August 08, 2022 10:00 - 11 minutes - 8.24 MBDavid discusses the upcoming WASDE report's implications for yield changes, the ongoing Yield Forecast Challenge, ag commodity purchases from China, and the roles of relative prices and elasticity.
Talking about the Fed and how to define a recession
August 01, 2022 10:00 - 13 minutes - 9.51 MBDavid and Brent discuss dry planting conditions, an episode of the Ag Interrupted series, farm loan delinquencies, the farm economy, and a book about George Washington.
Examining growing conditions, yields, and ROI
July 25, 2022 14:00 - 14 minutes - 10.2 MBDavid discusses the changes to the AEI website, unpacks what the data presented by the drought monitor may mean for crop yields, and takes a look at the idea of ROI.
Exploring July's crop yield data and macroeconomic predictions
July 18, 2022 23:00 - 15 minutes - 10.7 MBDavid discusses implications from the July WASDE and June acreage reports, interest rate movement, commodity pricing, and planned changes to both the AEI site and the publication time for the weekly newsletter.
Exploring July's crop yield data and macroeconomic predictions
July 18, 2022 23:00 - 15 minutes - 10.7 MBDavid discusses implications from the July WASDE and June acreage reports, interest rate movement, commodity pricing, and planned changes to both the AEI site and the publication time for the weekly newsletter.
Three thoughts for mid-July
July 12, 2022 13:00 - 11 minutes - 7.69 MBDavid discusses market uncertainty, farm debt, the changes to family living expenses, and due diligence in "desperate times." Additionally, keep an eye out for the USDA's July 12 WASDE report, which will resolve some AFN questions and open new ones.
Mid-year roundup: 6 months into 2022 how is the crop shapping up?
July 05, 2022 02:00 - 19 minutes - 13.5 MBDavid discusses progress on New Year's resolutions, gasoline consumption, trends in vegetable oil production, and the placebo effect, and teases an upcoming podcast series - Ag Interrupted.
Diving into the macro-economy: What the Fed has been doing and what it could mean
June 27, 2022 10:00 - 15 minutes - 10.7 MBDavid discusses recent articles and questions focusing on the macro-economy, actions of the Federal Reserve, and predictions for interest rates, inflation trends, and the Fed fund rate.
Diving into the macro-economy: What the Fed has been doing and what it could mean
June 27, 2022 10:00 - 15 minutes - 10.7 MBDavid discusses recent articles and questions focusing on the macro-economy, actions of the Federal Reserve, and predictions for interest rates, inflation trends, and the Fed fund rate.
Implications of prevent plant and commodity usage
June 20, 2022 23:00 - 12 minutes - 8.88 MBDavid discusses recent articles and reports highlighting the results of the June WASDE report, actions of the Federal Reserve, and the stocks-to-use situation.
Lessons from the past: corn prices, deja vu, and estate taxes,
June 14, 2022 04:00 - 14 minutes - 10.1 MBDavid comments on recent articles including one marking the end of an Ag Forecast Network question on taxes, and one regarding the interaction of inflation and corn prices, which also brings up a lesson from history.
Lessons from the past: corn prices, deja vu, and estate taxes,
June 14, 2022 04:00 - 14 minutes - 10.1 MBDavid comments on recent articles including one marking the end of an Ag Forecast Network question on taxes, and one regarding the interaction of inflation and corn prices, which also brings up a lesson from history.
It's just money: Examining fertilizer price trends and soybean meal and oil prices
June 07, 2022 03:00 - 10 minutes - 7.16 MBDavid discusses the ongoing - and still accepting new contestants - Yield Forecast Challenge ahead of the upcoming WASDE report set to be released June 10, fertilizer price changes, and fluctuations in the price of soybean meal and oil.
Data-based considerations: Examining gas prices and double-cropping soybeans
May 31, 2022 09:00 - 18 minutes - 12.7 MBDavid discusses elements influencing double-cropping, acre swapping, and the implications of gasoline pricing and consumption.
Implications of delayed planting, crop yields, and usage
May 23, 2022 10:00 - 14 minutes - 9.82 MBDavid discusses new articles, the prevent plant and crop yield situation, the potential for crops to see acre switching or demand rationing occur, and takes a look at the meaning behind the phrase “Desperate times call for desperate measures.”
May: The merry month for data
May 17, 2022 00:00 - 16 minutes - 11 MBDavid discusses data and implications from the May WASDE report, initial results for several Ag Forecast Network questions, updates the early results of the Yield Forecast Challenge, and highlights new articles.
Seeking answers: Looking at China's buying habits and yield predictions
May 09, 2022 11:00 - 11 minutes - 8 MBDavid highlights important elements of the upcoming May WASDE report, reviews the open questions for the 2022 Yield Challenge, and discusses details of recent articles.
Another perspective on the ag sector: Watching land sales and uncertainty
May 02, 2022 10:00 - 16 minutes - 11.3 MBDavid and guest co-host Randall Dickhut discuss farmland sales, land value, cash rental rates, and the rise in uncertainty.
Another perspective on the ag sector: Watching land sales and uncertainty
May 02, 2022 10:00 - 16 minutes - 11.3 MBDavid and guest co-host Randall Dickhut discuss farmland sales, land value, cash rental rates, and the rise in uncertainty.
Evaluating gloomy predictions, stagflation, and yield potential
April 25, 2022 17:00 - 18 minutes - 12.6 MBDavid and Brent discuss new articles and insights, stagflation, and the early days of the 2022 Ag Forecast Network Yield Challenge.
Yield Challenge Kickoff: How will corn, soybean yields develop in 2022?
April 18, 2022 10:00 - 5 minutes - 3.93 MBDavid kicks off the start of the 2022 Yield Forecast Challenge - 16 questions with a $1,600 prize - with the initial questions and details of recent yield-focused articles.
Tackling the macroeconomy: Questions, interest rates, and the Fed
April 11, 2022 21:00 - 20 minutes - 13.9 MBDavid and Brent discuss the macroeconomy including ongoing Ag Forcast Network questions about potential actions of the Fed, inflation rates, supply shocks, and debt.
How many acres? Looking at the corn/soybean breakdown
April 05, 2022 23:00 - 16 minutes - 11.2 MBDavid and Brent discuss the somewhat unexpected results of the USDA's March Prospective Planting report and share how well the Ag Forecast Network Consensus predicted the outcome of crop-based questions.
Question resolution: Reviewing answers and opening new inquiries
March 28, 2022 10:00 - 17 minutes - 11.9 MBDavid soliloquizes about articles and questions covering topics including farm sector assets debt, fertilizer prices, and oil prices, before touching on details of the upcoming Yield Forecast Challenge.
March 2022: Dealing with grain markets and chaos
March 21, 2022 10:00 - 16 minutes - 11.4 MBDavid and Brent discuss how to handle chaos, commodity price increases resulting from the Ukraine-Russia situation, new Ag Forcast Network questions, and what happened last time Congress tried to end daylight saving time.
Diving into crop (and insurance) details
March 14, 2022 15:00 - 11 minutes - 7.73 MBSpeaking from the Commodity Classic, David chats about new articles and new questions, crop insurance price windows, the corn-soybean crop price ratio, and a memo about how to deal with chaos.
Crop acres expand: Looking at the where and what
March 07, 2022 10:00 - 12 minutes - 8.59 MBDavid and Brent discuss global acreage expansion by country and crop type along with elements influencing the macroeconomic situation.
Russia and Ukraine: Grain market perspective
February 28, 2022 10:00 - 10 minutes - 7.08 MBDavid and Brent discuss the situation with Russia and Ukraine from a crop production and commodity perspective following the initial stages of the invasion. Data shared in the conversation stems from analyses completed in a new What We Are Thinking About Memo.
Russia and Ukraine: Grain market perspective
February 28, 2022 10:00 - 10 minutes - 7.08 MBDavid and Brent discuss the situation with Russia and Ukraine from a crop production and commodity perspective following the initial stages of the invasion. Data shared in the conversation stems from analyses completed in a new What We Are Thinking About Memo.
USDA data and the acreage debate continues
February 21, 2022 09:00 - 17 minutes - 12.2 MBDavid and Brent discuss new USDA data on net farm income estimates. This week's conversation also highlights ARC and PLC and possible Farm Bill programs, along with planted acreage potentials.
Crop Insurance Conundrums
February 14, 2022 22:00 - 9 minutes - 6.41 MBDavid and Brent discuss crop insurance, the conclusion of an Ag Forecast Network question about sales to China, and the weather-forecasting abilities of groundhogs.
Considering the 1980s: Applying lessons from the past
February 06, 2022 10:00 - 10 minutes - 7.34 MBDavid and Brent discuss podcasting, using historical situations to improve thinking about current events and decision-making, the "rhyming" nature of history, and carrying lessons forward.
The Fed’s doing what? Tackling the macroeconomy
January 31, 2022 23:00 - 20 minutes - 14.1 MBDavid and Brent discuss new articles, the macroeconomy, the most recent meeting of the Fed - including its implications for interest rates - and the potential influence of the Russia/Ukraine situation on the grain trade.
The Fed’s doing what? Tackling the macroeconomy
January 31, 2022 23:00 - 20 minutes - 14.1 MBDavid and Brent discuss new articles, the macroeconomy, the most recent meeting of the Fed - including its implications for interest rates - and the potential influence of the Russia/Ukraine situation on the grain trade.
Planted acres and consistency: Ensuring answers match
January 24, 2022 23:00 - 14 minutes - 10.1 MBDavid and Brent discuss what it means to be carbon neutral versus aspiring to be carbon neutral, new articles, the influence of China on the grain trade, and open Ag Forecast Network questions.
Planted acres and consistency: Ensuring answers match
January 24, 2022 23:00 - 14 minutes - 10.1 MBDavid and Brent discuss what it means to be carbon neutral versus aspiring to be carbon neutral, new articles, the influence of China on the grain trade, and open Ag Forecast Network questions.
USDA data answers AFN questions
January 17, 2022 23:00 - 13 minutes - 9.39 MBDavid and Brent discuss the data from new USDA reports and recently published articles, and examine results from several now closed AFN questions.