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Africa Markets Podcast

382 episodes - English - Latest episode: over 1 year ago -

RMB's research offering spans across the fixed income, currency and credit markets to offer strategic insight to our clients across multiple sectors and markets.

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Episodes

AMI 01072022: Namibia’s strong growth in the first quarter

July 01, 2022 06:53 - 2 minutes - 2.3 MB

Zambia: The statistics agency in Zambia reported first growth for 2022 at 2.4 q/q. Key contributors included Public Admin, ICT, Electricity, Accommodation and Real estate.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 29062022: Base metals down for the year

June 29, 2022 08:09 - 1 minute - 1.61 MB

Commodities: Over the past month, there has a been a significant decline in prices across most commodifies – fueled by fears of lackluster economic performance. The market is pricing in a recession as higher inflationary pressures erode production and chip away at discretionary spending.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 28062022: Côte d'Ivoire and Kenya

June 28, 2022 07:35 - 1 minute - 1.73 MB

Côte d'Ivoire: Moody’s has affirmed Côte d'Ivoire’s sovereign rating at Ba3 and has changed its outlook from stable to positive. This is largely informed by the country’s prospects for growth between now and 2025 with GDP expected to print north of 7% according to the rating agency. In addition to strong growth and stable monetary policy, the rating agency expects fiscal conditions to continue to improve over the next few years. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 27062022: Fitch downgrades Namibia to “BB-“

June 27, 2022 05:49 - 1 minute - 1.45 MB

Namibia: Fitch ratings agency has opted to downgrade Namibia’s sovereign rating from “BB” to “BB- “on account of worsening twin deficits relative to its peers. Fitch expects the budget deficit (% of GDP) to come in at 7.6% in 2022, wider than the average budget deficit of “BB” rated economies of 5.0%. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 24062022: Egypt – MPC keeps rates on hold

June 24, 2022 06:51 - 1 minute - 1.49 MB

Egypt: The MPC opted to keep rates on hold as they wait to observe the impact of the year-to-date 300bp increase in interest rates. Lending rate remains at 12.5% while the deposit rate is 11.5%. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 22062022: Namibia’s hospitality sector continues to improve

June 22, 2022 06:09 - 1 minute - 1.38 MB

Namibia: Room occupancy rates from the Namibia Hospitality Association of Namibia continue their upward trend, coming in at 39.4% during May. This is higher than the 36.5% recorded in April and the 25.7% recorded over the same period last year.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 21062022: Namibia house price growth cools

June 21, 2022 08:28 - 1 minute - 1.41 MB

Namibia: The latest FNB Namibia residential property report indicated that the House Price Index grew by 4.7% at the end of the first quarter of this year, down from 7.1% at the end of 2021, but unchanged compared to 1Q21.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 20062022: Botswana’s Monetary Policy Rate up by 50bps

June 19, 2022 20:16 - 2 minutes - 2.78 MB

Botswana: The Bank of Botswana’s (BoB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) increased the Monetary Policy Rate (MoPR) by 50bps at a meeting held on 16 June 2022, effectively increasing the MoPR from 1.65% to 2.15%. Furthermore, repo and reverse repo operations will be conducted at the MoPR (2.15%).  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 15062022: Namibia’s rental price growth low but positive

June 15, 2022 06:43 - 1 minute - 1.29 MB

Namibia: The latest FNB Rental Index data shows that prices edged up by 0.6% at the end of March as rental activity picks up across the country. According to the FNB Residential Rental report, upward price action is seen across the properties with more than three bedrooms.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 14062022: Mozambique inflation - shy of 10%

June 14, 2022 06:38 - 1 minute - 1.49 MB

Mozambique: Food and transport inflation seem to be the main protagonists in the latest inflation print which came in at 9.3% y/y in May, highest level since September 2017. The Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on global prices combined with general disruptions in supply has led to higher import demand into the country.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 13062022: Fears around fresh new China lockdowns

June 13, 2022 06:13 - 1 minute - 1.47 MB

China: Commodity prices have reacted negatively to the news of China reimposing some of the lockdown conditions that it had started to loosen a few weeks ago.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 10062022: Egypt inflation prints 13.5%

June 10, 2022 06:26 - 1 minute - 1.43 MB

Egypt: Egypt inflation remains above 10%, coming in at 13.5% in May. The index has soared on the back of higher food prices. Egypt has been impacted by Russia-Ukraine war which resulted in disruptions to trade globally but more importantly has curtailed wheat trade.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 9 June 2022: Ghana’s inflation sky rockets

June 09, 2022 07:25 - 1 minute - 1.43 MB

Ghana: Inflation in Ghana edged 27.6% y/y in May as transport prices rose by 39.0%y/y, household equipment by 33.8% y/y, housing and utilities by 32.3% y/y and food by 30.1% y/y. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 08062022: World bank slashes global growth forecasts

June 08, 2022 06:40 - 1 minute - 1.54 MB

Global: The World bank has revised its forecasts for 2022 global growth to 2.9% from its earlier expectations of 4.1% for the year. Necessitating the change is the Russia-Ukraine war and the subsequent economic impact across the world at a time when most economies were still recovering from the effects of the pandemic.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 7 June 2022: Africa PMI figures reveal growth concerns

June 07, 2022 05:34 - 1 minute - 1.28 MB

PMI: As inflationary pressures continue unabated across the continent, businesses are having to contend with higher input costs across the board. The latest PMI data shows that in May, business conditions have deteriorated across the continent with output falling and general demand waning.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 3 June 2022: Namibia’s hospitality sector gradually improving

June 03, 2022 07:08 - 1 minute - 1.36 MB

Namibia: The latest data from the Hospitality Association of Namibia shows an improvement in National Occupancy rates. Room occupancy in April was recorded at 36.5% relative to 27.0% over the same period last year.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 03062022: Namibia’s hospitality sector gradually improving

June 03, 2022 07:08 - 1 minute - 1.36 MB

Namibia: The latest data from the Hospitality Association of Namibia shows an improvement in National Occupancy rates. Room occupancy in April was recorded at 36.5% relative to 27.0% over the same period last year.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 2 June 2022: Pump prices see further increases

June 02, 2022 10:42 - 1 minute - 1.55 MB

SSA: Zambia has announced a 3.3% increase in pump prices on the back of rising oil prices. Earlier this week, South Africa, which has extended its fuel price relief,  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 1 June 2022: Kenya’s inflation edges higher

June 01, 2022 08:00 - 1 minute - 1.36 MB

Kenya: Inflation has passed the 7% mark in Kenya, coming in at 7.1%y/y as food and fuel inflation continues to drive average prices higher. This is the highest print since February 2020. Cooking oil and wheat prices continue to increase in Kenya and will likely keep food inflation elevated for longer- currently food and non-alcoholic beverages is growing by 12.4%y/y. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 31 May 2022: CBK raises interest rates by 50bp

May 31, 2022 05:31 - 1 minute - 1.79 MB

Kenya: In line with our base case scenario, the MPC opted to increase interest rates by 50bp, raising the benchmark interest rate from 7.0% to 7.5%. The narrative for higher interest rates is similar to that of other economies and can be summarised as: rising global uncertainty on account of the Russia/Ukraine war; higher global interest rates and higher global inflation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 30 May 2022: Egypt’s ratings outlook goes negative – Moody’s

May 30, 2022 06:15 - 1 minute - 1.51 MB

Egypt: Moody’s has changed Egypt’s outlook to negative from stable, whilst maintaining the sovereign rating at B2. The effects of the pandemic are having a devastating impact on the Egyptian economy as food inflation soars and as concerns around supply chain prevail. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 27 May 2022: Zambia - disinflation continues

May 27, 2022 06:34 - 2 minutes - 2.17 MB

he inflation deceleration trend continued in May as headline CPI printed 130bp lower at 10.2% from 11.5% in April. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 26 May: Mozambique grows by 4.1% in the first quarter

May 26, 2022 06:18 - 1 minute - 1.43 MB

Mozambique: During the first quarter of the year, the economy grew 4.1% as sectors such as hotels and restaurants, extractive industry, transport and logistics sector grew above 5.0% over the same period. Meanwhile, low growth was found in the public administrative levels, real estate and fishery which continue to growth by less than 1.0%.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 24 May: Ghana hikes by 200bp, as expected

May 24, 2022 07:36 - 1 minute - 1.57 MB

The Bank of Ghana opted to raise the main policy rate by a further 200bp, from 17% to 19%. The move was largely anticipated given the rising inflationary pressures in the economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 23 May 2022: Ghana further hikes expected

May 23, 2022 07:24 - 1 minute - 1.56 MB

Ghana: With inflation soaring past 20% and real policy rates turning negative, we expect the BoG to continue hiking interest rates in the near term. In our base case, we expect the Bank of Ghana to increase interest rates by 300bp over the next 12 months.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 20 May 2022: Egypt hikes aggressively – more to come

May 20, 2022 07:20 - 1 minute - 1.65 MB

Egypt: In our March inflation commentary, we mentioned that the upward trend in inflation was likely going to lead to a further hike by the authorities in Egypt. Inflation in April however edged to 13.1%, significantly higher than market expectations, as food inflation impacted the basket.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 19 May 2022: Zambia MPC’s opts to hold

May 19, 2022 05:59 - 2 minutes - 1.92 MB

Zambia: At the second sitting of the year, the monetary policy committe in Zambia opted to maintain the policy rate at 9%. The deceleration in inflation and the projection for it to trend lower towards the 6-8 % target range by the end of 2023 were highlighted as the main reasons behind the decision.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 18 May 2022: Zambia’s MPC balances between disinflation and global interest rates

May 18, 2022 04:54 - 1 minute - 1.81 MB

Zambia: The central bank of Zambia will have to balance two key themes during its monetary policy meeting brief: inflation, which has been decelerating over the past few months and; the rising global interest rate environment. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 17 May 2022: Fuel pump adjustments impact Botswana’s inflation

May 17, 2022 04:52 - 2 minutes - 2.41 MB

Botswana: Botswana’s inflation moderated to 9.6% y/y in April (down from 10.0% y/y in March). The main contributors to the headline were the transport index, which accounted for 5.5ppt, utilities which made up 1.4ppt, food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.8ppt) and miscellaneous goods and services (+0.7ppt).  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 16 May 2022: Wheat prices climb on India ban

May 16, 2022 06:47 - 1 minute - 1.33 MB

Wheat: India has instituted a ban of its wheat exports, a move that has sent global wheat prices higher amid an already tepid soft commodity environment. Price of wheat has escalated this year because of the Russia/Ukraine war and has been one of the key reasons for higher global inflation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 13 May 2022: Namibia inflation reaches highest level in three years

May 13, 2022 06:34 - 3 minutes - 3.04 MB

Inflationary pressures in Namibia continue to be elevated as the April inflation print accelerated rapidly to 5.6% y/y from 4.5% in March 2022. This is the highest print observed since November 2018. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 12 May 2022:Ghana’s inflation surges past 20%

May 12, 2022 06:07 - 1 minute - 1.63 MB

Inflation: A weak currency, rising food and fuel costs are key factors currently driving the surge in average prices in Ghana. The latest headline inflation prints for April came in at 23.6% y/y, the highest reading recorded over the past 10 years. Food inflation, which accounts for 43.12% of the overall CPI weightings, increased by 26.6% y/y over the same period as the price of cereal and cereal products increased dramatically (see comments on global food and oil transport here  See omnyst...

AMI 11 May 2022: April inflation continues to tick-up

May 11, 2022 06:34 - 2 minutes - 1.93 MB

Inflation: The first inflation print in the second quarter of the year continues to show a rise on average prices. Since the beginning of the quarter, oil prices have somewhat settled - trading between US$100 and US$110 per barrel. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 10 May 2022: Mozambique receives IMF board approval

May 10, 2022 05:39 - 1 minute - 1.78 MB

Mozambique: The IMF board has approved an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) to Mozambique worth 340.8mn SDR (US$456mn). According to the board, “The three-year arrangement will help support the economic recovery and policies to reduce public debt and financing vulnerabilities, creating space for priority investments in human capital, climate adaptation and infrastructure.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 09 May 2022:African currencies performance year to date

May 09, 2022 06:05 - 1 minute - 1.77 MB

Currencies: As the year approaches the half year mark, year to date spot performance of the various African currencies has been split. On the one hand, despite dollar strength, the official naira rate and metical rate have slightly strengthened against the dollar.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 04 May 2022: Botswana GDP prints 11.4% in 2021

May 04, 2022 06:34 - 2 minutes - 2.22 MB

Botswana: Botswana’s economy rebounded by 11.4% in 2021 (compared to -8.7% in 2020), owing primarily to a significant recovery in the mining sector (29.9% y/y). The mining sector benefitted from a recovery in global diamond demand, and prices, coupled with the resumption of local copper mining activities (in 3Q21).  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 03 May 2022: Credit extension growth remains low

May 03, 2022 07:05 - 1 minute - 1.66 MB

Namibia: With a weak economic backdrop and rising cost pressures, the private sector in Namibia continues to struggle as can be seen with the poor credit growth. Borrowing from businesses and households is low – coming in at 2.1% at the end of March. Despite lowering interest rates during the onset of the pandemic, the market has struggled to gain momentum with credit growth averaging 2.5% over the past 12 months.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 29 April 2022: First rate hike in 14 years – 51bps hike in the new MoPR

April 29, 2022 07:05 - 3 minutes - 2.81 MB

Botswana: The Bank of Botswana’s (BoB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) hiked the policy rate by 51bp at a meeting held on 28 April 2022. This follows the implementation of reforms highlighted in the 2022 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) aimed at improving Botswana’s monetary policy transmission.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 28 April 2022: Disinflationary trend continues in Zambia

April 28, 2022 06:05 - 2 minutes - 1.92 MB

Zambia: Zambia’s Inflation rate for April was recorded at 11.5%y/y - 1.60ppt lower than the March print. The reduction can be attributed to reductions in both food and non-food categories which decelerated from 15.3% to 14.1% and 10.3% to 8.2% respectively over the same period. Inflation is at its lowest level since November 2019 on the back of base effects and currency appreciation which have outweighed rising global energy prices. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 26 April 2022: Kwacha sees steady appreciation

April 26, 2022 06:48 - 1 minute - 1.36 MB

Kwacha: The recent kwacha gains confirm our view that market sentiment is still a key driver for the currency’s performance. Relative to other economies on the continent, the Zambian economy is viewed positively despite facing the same global risks such as food and fuel inflation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 25 April 2022: Concerns around China impacting oil prices

April 25, 2022 06:48 - 1 minute - 1.66 MB

Commodities: Global markets seem to be pricing-in risks around China’s economic growth momentum resulting in key commodity prices slipping in April. Price growth across most base metals will likely still be driven by supply chain constraints keeping prices more of less elevated. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 22 April 2022: Fitch affirms Côte d'Ivoire’s sovereign rating

April 22, 2022 06:41 - 1 minute - 1.48 MB

Côte d'Ivoire: Fitch has affirmed the country’s sovereign rating at “BB-” with a stable outlook for the economy. The rating affirmation is largely based on the confidence the agency has on the authorities to rein-in expenditure after the impact of the pandemic led to additional spending.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 21 April 2022: Ghana’s economy rebounds in 2021

April 21, 2022 05:36 - 2 minutes - 2.16 MB

Ghana: The economy bounced-back in 2021, recording 5.4%y/y, as the services industry spurred the recovery. GDP growth rates were broadly aligned with our expectation, coming-in only 0.2 ppt lower than what we had initially anticipated. Under the services industry, “Trade; Repair of Vehicles, Household Goods”, posted a strong recovery of 5.9% in 2021 versus a contraction of 2.9%y/y in 2020. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 20 April 2022: Namibia’s inflation moves sideways

April 20, 2022 06:25 - 1 minute - 1.63 MB

Namibia: Despite an 8% increase in domestic fuel prices between February and March, Namibia’s March inflation print remained unchanged from February at 4.5% y/y. The month-on-month increase in fuel prices was counteracted by a marked slowdown in food prices from 5.4% y/y in February to 4.6% y/y in March, largely owing to disinflation in meat, fish, dairy, sugar, fruit, vegetable and non-alcoholic beverage sub-categories.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 14 April 2022: Inflation surges in Ghana and Bank of Namibia hikes as expected

April 14, 2022 06:30 - 2 minutes - 1.88 MB

Inflation has accelerated to 19.4%y/y in Ghana at the end of March. The latest print is the highest ever seen over the past decade as food and fuel prices continue to surge.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 13 April 2022: Namibia rate hike on the cards

April 13, 2022 06:31 - 1 minute - 1.59 MB

Namibia: We expect the central bank of Namibia to hike interest rates today by 25bps in line with regional movements. Namibia’s inflation has been relative subdued over the past few years hovering between 2% and 6% over the past 5 years.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 12 April 2022: Egypt’s inflation prints above ten percent

April 12, 2022 06:25 - 1 minute - 1.45 MB

Egypt: The latest data shows annual inflation came in at 10.5% at the end of March as the effects of Russia-Ukraine war exacerbate conditions in the country. Price pressures continue in the country as inflation expectations rise amid higher food and oil prices.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 06 April 2022: PMI figures bake in the war

April 06, 2022 06:33 - 1 minute - 1.4 MB

PMI: The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has had an impact on the latest PMI numbers with several respondents across the continent noting the disruptions on supply and the rising prices of basic goods like fuel,  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 05 April 2022: Inflation expectations to remain elevated

April 05, 2022 06:10 - 1 minute - 1.27 MB

Fuel and fertilizer: Inflation expectations are expected to lift as the second quarter of the year starts. While oil prices have hovered above the US$100 per barrel over the past few weeks, soft commodity prices have been on an increase.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AMI 04 April 2022: Kenya: market stability necessary for continued growth - CEO survey

April 04, 2022 06:48 - 1 minute - 1.52 MB

Kenya: First quarter survey of CEOs operating in Kenya indicated that there is general optimism about the business environment on account of relaxed covid-19 rules, government infrastructure spending, anticipated better weather conditions and the general economic recovery momentum.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.